KUGRDON Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quack 12 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 I'm responding out of turn here, but the CFO of the company I work for, who has a Phd in Finance from Stanford, once said. "When you figure out the stock market, let me know." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mano Posted August 9, 2020 Share Posted August 9, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 3:55 PM, Quack 12 said: I'm responding out of turn here, but the CFO of the company I work for, who has a Phd in Finance from Stanford, once said. "When you figure out the stock market, let me know." Now that I have regained most of my losses this year I am thinking about pulling my money which is in tax sheltered accounts ( IRA's and 401k ) out of market funds and parking it in money market or bonds until pandemic has passed because I am worried about a large crash. I am probably 10-15 years from retirement. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Hail Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 On 8/3/2020 at 2:10 PM, KUGRDON said: ??? Where do I start... instead of going full Jalapeño, I will just create a short list: - the fed is propping up the repo markets with 2.5 trillion dollars. If you don’t know what those are, look em up - with 15-20 mil unemployed, there are a lot of full time day traders and all they do is buy. Apple is taking advantage by splitting their stock, they want more Robinhood traders (noobs) to be able to afford the stock so they can squeeze every penny out of it before the inevitable tank. They are not diversified like amazon or Microsoft. Watch the pension funds, they are already aggressively scaling out of Apple - certain companies benefit from SIP, and several of these companies are so large, they carry the markets with them - ultimately, fundamentals win the day. It’s only a matter of if not when the market collapses and it will be violent when it happens. I think the collapse of the commercial real estate sector will provide a nice catalyst to do so but there are several possible catalysts my wife and I sold our house last week. We got way over asking because there is a flood of wealthy families coming from the city who are desperate for space and security. We are now in a heavy cash position and we will be waiting on the sidelines to see what happens. Housing is always a lagging indicator, it took until mid 2009 for the housing market to tank during the last financial crash. As we wait to see what happens, we found an awesome place in Hermosa Beach just a 6 minute walk to the pier that we are renting. We are hardly alone in fleeing the Bay Area. According to TechCrunch, 2/3 techies in the Bay plan to leave now that remote work in this norm. I can’t imagine that will be good for housing prices. Our long term plan is to buy in Napa/Sonoma in 2-3 years after what we believe will be a double and triple bottom in real estate prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Hail Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 20 hours ago, Mano said: Now that I have regained most of my losses this year I am thinking about pulling my money which is in tax sheltered accounts ( IRA's and 401k ) out of market funds and parking it in money market or bonds until pandemic has passed because I am worried about a large crash. I am probably 10-15 years from retirement. Your thoughts? It’s incredibly difficult to time the market but probably not a bad idea. I think new all time highs of the Dow and S&P will trigger a strong short term downside trend that could turn into a longer term downside trend. New all time highs are very very close to occurring so this could happen soon. ill probably put some play money on an aggressive put against the S&P once it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mano Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 41 minutes ago, All Hail said: It’s incredibly difficult to time the market but probably not a bad idea. I think new all time highs of the Dow and S&P will trigger a strong short term downside trend that could turn into a longer term downside trend. New all time highs are very very close to occurring so this could happen soon. ill probably put some play money on an aggressive put against the S&P once it happens. I am just weighing the risk of the market totally tanking vs. the upside of leaving money in for the next few months. I think I am going to pull out my tax sheltered money from stocks for the next several months until virus and election settled, then put it back in over the course of a few months. I may miss out on some gain, but it seems the downside if the market makes a huge crash/correction is bigger than the upside right now. I really don't see how it can go up much given the underlying economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Hail Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mano said: I am just weighing the risk of the market totally tanking vs. the upside of leaving money in for the next few months. I think I am going to pull out my tax sheltered money from stocks for the next several months until virus and election settled, then put it back in over the course of a few months. I may miss out on some gain, but it seems the downside if the market makes a huge crash/correction is bigger than the upside right now. I really don't see how it can go up much given the underlying economy. Good logic and probably right. Seems like risk/reward is not very favorable right now. I just wouldn’t want my money in cash either. The government can only print so much money before inflation begins to become problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KUGRDON Posted August 10, 2020 Author Share Posted August 10, 2020 The market is acting irrationally. In order to time or predict the market you must be able to think irrationally. Org, fill us in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mano Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 1 hour ago, All Hail said: Good logic and probably right. Seems like risk/reward is not very favorable right now. I just wouldn’t want my money in cash either. The government can only print so much money before inflation begins to become problematic. What would be a good low risk vehicle to park money in? Would bonds be any better than a money market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Hail Posted August 10, 2020 Share Posted August 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Mano said: What would be a good low risk vehicle to park money in? Would bonds be any better than a money market? Amazon and Microsoft, I’m only half kidding. you’d probably want a diversified portfolio or dividend earning conservative stocks, bonds, cds, and a diversified index of metals to hedge against inflation. Definitely a conversation that is too important to not have with a Financial Planner or Advisor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nakedmolerat Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 7 hours ago, All Hail said: Amazon and Microsoft, I’m only half kidding. you’d probably want a diversified portfolio or dividend earning conservative stocks, bonds, cds, and a diversified index of metals to hedge against inflation. Definitely a conversation that is too important to not have with a Financial Planner or Advisor. Wait, you're saying don't exclusively take financial advice from sports message boards? What next, I can't play the lotto for investment purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mysfit Posted August 22, 2020 Share Posted August 22, 2020 Because mainstreet and Wall Street are disconnected? Instead of being about jobs and people the stock market is about profit. That's my uninformed view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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