ESPN Bubble Watch

[All Hail]

One of my favorite columns has always been ESPN's Bubble Watch.  They do a very good job of assessing a teams chances of making the tournament.

 

Here are the breakdown of Pac 12 teams. 

 

Locks: Oregon and Arizona (no argument there.) -- After Dillon Brooks' hesitant return from injury in November and a couple of early, not unrelated slip-ups, Oregon has reestablished itself as the Pac-12 title contender and Final Four-level outfit it was universally considered to be before the season began. The win that sealed that status? Saturday's 85-58 thrashing of Arizona, which had won 15 straight games from Dec. 6 to Feb. 2. As for the Wildcats, that winning streak included Jan. 21's hyper-impressive 96-85 win at UCLA, which featured the return (after a PED-related suspension) of star guard Allonzo Trier. Arizona's emergence, despite the loss to Oregon, gives the Pac-12 three entirely believable prospective Phoenix attendees -- even if the third isn't quite worthy of lockdom just yet.

 

Should be in: UCLA - [21-3 (8-3), RPI: 24, SOS: 142] There exists a distinct likelihood that, having read the above, some UCLA fans will be miffed their Bruins aren't already sitting next to Arizona and Oregon among the Pac-12's locks. Before they take to Twitter, though, they should take a deep breath and consider that the 2016-17 season has gone so well in Westwood that UCLA fans could conceivably be upset that they're not, as of Feb. 7, already listed as a lock. Seriously. Think about that. And not only are these Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf-led Bruins good, they're also insanely fun -- playing some of the fastest, most efficient, most liberated offensive basketball in the country. The Bruins' defensive apathy only heightens their watchability. They're a total blast, a far cry from the dour 15-17 trudge of 2015-16, victors on the road at Kentucky and an almost inevitable lock, sooner rather than later, especially if they beat Oregon Thursday night.

 

 

Work Left to Do: USC [20-4 (7-4), RPI: 26, SOS: 84] Nothing about the Trojans' resume jumps off the page, but that can be a compliment just as easily as an insult. USC's marquee nonconference win came over SMU, which is better than most people think; it got another big win Jan. 25 on its own floor against crosstown rival UCLA. Solid RPI, decent schedule numbers, no bad losses to speak of -- the Trojans can't afford a total slide, but right now they're well on their way.

 

 

 

Cal  [17-6 (8-3), RPI: 41, SOS: 45] Cal's most notable triumph this season -- unless you count potential lottery pick Ivan Rabb's decision to return to school last spring -- is a win at USC. It is just 1-5 against the RPI top 50 and just 4-6 against the top 100, and is shaping up to be a bubble concern all the way until Selection Sunday. The good news? Rabb and the Bears really defend, and defense travels -- perhaps to, say, Tucson, where a road win at Arizona on Saturday would be an unlikely season-changer.

 

 

Utah [15-8 (6-5), RPI: 76, SOS: 81] Like Cal, Utah's only eyebrow-raising victory this season came against USC. Unlike Cal, it came at home; also unlike Cal, it remains the Utes' only top-100 win. Larry Krystkowiak's nonconference schedule offered his team opportunities, but the Utes have never looked the type to beat Butler or Xavier, and a neutral-court loss to San Francisco remains a bummer. Worse, after Jan. 14's near-miss at home against UCLA, the only huge opportunity remaining is a Feb. 16 trip to Oregon. This is going to be an uphill climb.

[MrBug708]

Ucla is a lock. They could be anywhere from a 2 seed to a 5 seed. Not calling them a lock is essentially saying arizona and oregon aren't technically locks either. Not really worried about making the tournament. I'm worried about making it past the sweet 16

[All Hail]

Ucla is a lock. They could be anywhere from a 2 seed to a 5 seed. Not calling them a lock is essentially saying arizona and oregon aren't technically locks either. Not really worried about making the tournament. I'm worried about making it past the sweet 16

 

UCLA isn't a lock because if they lost every game, they might not make the tournament.  The same is not true for Oregon and Arizona due to their superior resumes.   If UCLA lost every game, they "should be in" so I don't think the point of the column was to make you worried about making the tournament.  He takes lock status quite literally. 

[MrBug708]

Most of the advanced metrics are pretty all over the place this year. UCLA has one of the best resumes and is generally thought of being a 3 seed, MAYBE a two seed

[All Hail]

Does UCLA really have more top 25/top50 wins then most 1 or 2 seeds? Is their SOS tougher?  What makes their resume better?  I honestly haven't looked. 

[glduck]

they've got a great opportunity ahead of them if the seeding holds, needing to knock off arizona in the semis and oregon in the championship. i'm not *quite* sure where kentucky will finish up, but that's potentially 5 top 15 wins.

[MrBug708]

Does UCLA really have more top 25/top50 wins then most 1 or 2 seeds? Is their SOS tougher? What makes their resume better? I honestly haven't looked.

This is from.the CBS blog

 

OC2CO 1 hour ago Moving UCLA up 2 spots when it was a joke you had them as a 4 is nothing to brag about. The problem with this is bracket is it puts too much emphasis on the "nerdology" of the RPI rankings. The rankings over penalize teams for wins against teams that are having down years (not in control of with winning team). What IS in control of these teams are their quality wins and bad losses. Using RPI game-time rankings for argument's sake: - UCLA has 3 top 10 wins (5, 7, 9) against 3 different teams. Losses came against ranks 5, 9 and 33. They do not have a "bad" loss all season No other team can match their resume. Yet you have them as a soft 2, banishing them to the South when they should be #1 in the West, #1 in Midwest, or at worst, #2 in the West. - Kansas is the ONLY OTHER TEAM with 3 top 10 wins. And 2 of those were against a Baylor team that is fading. Kansas also has 3 losses to rankings of 26, 37, and 88. Not nearly as strong a resume as UCLA, especially when you factor in 4 or 5 very close/lucky wins. - Villanova has no top 10 wins and a loss to a 72 - UNC has 1 top 10 win and 5 losses that include an 88 and a 96 ranking - Louisville has 1 top 10 win, but all losses were to highly ranked team at 3, 8, 12, 19, 19 & 23. No bad losses - Oregon has 1 top 10 win, but a loss to a 116 - Gonzaga has 2 top 10 wins, but they just lost to a 68 (and did anyone really think they were the best team in the country?) - Arizona has 0 top 10 wins, but ther 4 losses are to ranks of 5, 10, 11, and 15. No bad losses

[All Hail]

Ok, I looked it up.  UCLA is getting penalized because they only have 5 top 50 wins and only 3 top 25 wins.  That just isn't one of the best resumes unless you're a UCLA fan.  Making matters worse is their OOC SOS, which stands at 290!  UCLA definitely has positive resume attributes.  W/L record, 3 top 10 wins, no bad losses, but calling their resume one of the best is a laughable statement.

 

 

For Comparisons sake:

 

Kansas - top 50 wins: 7.  Top 25 wins: 5 SOS 27

North Carolina - Top 50 wins: 9, top 25 wins: 4. SOS 22

Villanova - Top 50 wins: 10, Top 25 wins: 5, SOS 30

Gonzaga - top 50 wins: 5 Top 25 wins: 4, SOS 107

Baylor: top 50 wins: 8, Top 25 wins 3, SOS 4

Lousville Top 50 wins: 6 Top 25 wins 3, SOS 2

UCLA - top 50 wins: 5. Top 25 wins: 3, SOS 117

Oregon - Top 50 wins: 4 Top 25 wins 2 SOS 33

 

UCLA's resume is far worse than any of the 3 #1 seeds from a power conference.  Even Gonzaga has more top 25 wins, just as many top 50 wins, and a better SOS.  Oregon has slightly fewer top 25/50 wins than UCLA but has far more top 100 wins and has a much tougher SOS.  The other #2 seeds have either more top 25/50 wins and a better SOS or around the same amount and a better SOS.  Both Louisville and Baylor have top 5 SOS's.  I don't entirely blame UCLA for their schedule as Ohio State, Michigan and TAMU are having down years.  However, your SOS is what it is and the huge discrepancy between UCLA's SOS and that of their seeding peers is what is keeping them as a #3 seed at the moment.  As GL said, UCLA will have a chance to improve upon their resume big time with wins over Zona and Oregon but right now, they do not have one of the best resumes out there.  They have the resume of a 3 seed. 

[ExplorerSunDevil]

My prediction: 

 

Will get IN: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, USC, CAL

 

Will be left OUT: Utah(unless they win the conference tournament) 

[MrBug708]

I get it. SOS counts for something but it's not like ucla was in danger of losing to a team in the mid 150 RPI either. If they had a bad loss, maybe you would be onto something. They are even ranked 3rd in the AP. They are likely a second and barring a first round loss in the PAC 12 tournament, will likely be a 2 seed. If they win out, they should be a 1 in the west.

 

Usc is more of a fit in the situation you are describing. They played no one OOC but once the hit conference play, they struggled.

 

It really comes down to if Brooks doesn't hit that shot vs ucla they'd be the lock for the #1 seed and instead are trending at a 3

[All Hail]

I don't think any team with a +100 SOS is a lock for 1 seed unless you practically run the table like Gonzaga did.  If UCLA beat Oregon earlier then UCLA is probably a 2-seed with a good chance to get a 1-seed if they won the tournament.  As it stands now, I don't see how you put UCLA above any of the #2 seeds from a pure resume standpoint.  I understand why the AP does it, because UCLA has a long of wins and they are UCLA.  People that take a closer look almost unanimously have UCLA as a 3-seed and the resumes reflect that ranking. 

[RogueDuck]

The zags biggest win of the year, came vs a UA team missing two starters. I don't get the love for the bulldogs, a team lead by two middle of the road PAC 12 players.

[ExplorerSunDevil]

Tough year for mid majors