**2017 PAC-12 PROGRAM POWER RANKINGS**

[Card Tricks]

Someone made a post in a separate thread about which teams tend to dominate each conference annually. So in lieu of that concept, I figured this would be a good time to take stock of the Pac-12 and revisit where each program sits, respectively, within the conference pecking order heading. DISCLAIMER: there's no exact formula for going about this exercise. It's an extremely subjective topic and can be interpreted in many ways. But for the sake of opening up the dialogue, I went ahead and came up with my own formula. Say what you will about intangibles such as recruiting momentum and program prestige but as far as I'm concerned, nothing counts more than on-the-field results. Thus, the foundation of my formula involved factoring in each team's win total per season over the last five years (as good a marker as I could think of for "recent" history). Obviously, not all seasons are created equal since a team's win total in 2012 is not nearly as relevant as a team's win total last season. Therefore, I ran those win totals through a unique metric system that gives increasingly more weight to each subsequent season. Lastly, I factored in division, conference, and national titles, which were added to the final point total (1 point for division titles, 2 points for conference titles). For the full formula breakdown, feel free to scroll to the bottom of the post where I included a detailed overview of my calculations. With all that said, I now present my Pac-12 Program Power Rankings heading into 2017:

 

KING  (12+ points)

1. STANFORD     Score: 16.48

Summary: When I think about the Pac-12's elite, Stanford is certainly not the first name that comes to mind. However, in breaking down the conference over the last five years, it's hard to argue against Stanford's resumé. David Shaw has established a solid, consistent program that has only had one let down year in the past five seasons (2014). Otherwise, all they've done is play for Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowls. That level of consistency is what's keeping Stanford above all of it's piers at the top of the conference pecking order. Last season obviously represented a seismic shift in the Pac-12 with the emergence of Washington and USC. But until those programs prove they have the kind of staying power that Stanford and Oregon demonstrated over the majority of this decade (and I'm betting they will), the crown of the conference "King" continues to belong to the Cardinal (for now).

 

DUKE  (10-12 points)

2. OREGON     Score: 11.08

Summary: It felt strange slotting Oregon anywhere but the highest tier in the conference given their success over the last decade. Heck, they're the only Pac-12 program that's managed to play for a National Title and bring home the Heisman in recent history. But this ranking has a lot more to do with last season's disaster than their prior success. According to my calculations, had Oregon just qualified for the postseason and won their bowl game last year, they would have been squarely in the "King" tier alongside Stanford. But that never happened, their head coach got fired as a result, and now we find ourselves in the Willie Taggart era. On-the-field results pending, that may have been the best thing to happen to the program moving forward (I mean have you seen Oregon's recruiting class for 2018?!). For the time being, however, Oregon's fall from grace marked a clear step back for the program and until they get back to their winning ways on the field, they'll have to settle for flanking Stanford as the #2 program in the conference. 

3. WASHINGTON     Score: 10.92

Summary: Nipping on Oregon's heels comes the conference's newest heavyweight, the Washington Huskies. After slowly assembling the pieces since his arrival in Montlake back in 2014, Peterson's squad finally broke through (a year early some might argue) and took the conference by storm en route to 12 wins and a College Football Playoff berth. Are the Huskies here to stay? It would certainly seem that way. However, the reason the Huskies haven't yet cracked "King" status in the Pac-12 is because in the years prior to 2016, this was a program that was consistently good but never great. Now, with so many resources for sustained success finally in place, the Huskies have the ability to go on the same kind of dynastic run that Stanford and Oregon embarked upon earlier this decade. But until they do so, this program remains a promising upstart that needs about another year or two of dominance before they can officially take their place as the new conference "King".

 

KNIGHT  (8-10 points)

4. USC     Score: 9.96

Summary: The Trojans were oh so close to breaking into the "Duke" tier after a successful campaign in 2016 but fell just shy. If you were to ask anyone in the country right now where USC sits among the Pac-12 hierarchy, they would probably tell you, unequivocally, that they're the cream of the crop. However, the Trojans resumé over the last five seasons leaves a lot to be desired, with zero conference titles to show for what's been a strong but otherwise unspectacular run. The problem for USC is that they're held to such extraordinarily high standards, much more so than any other program in the Pac-12. So while a division title and Rose Bowl is certainly nothing to scoff at, it's still not quite up to USC's standards. The sanctions clearly had something to do with that but now that the dark chapters of the Kiffin and Sarkisian eras are officially behind them, the Trojans are finally ready to reclaim their destiny at the top of the conference. To do so, however, will require a conference championship at the very least (a feat that has eluded them since 2008).

5. UCLA     Score: 8.72

Summary: Before last season's disaster, UCLA was one of the Pac-12's strongest and most consistent programs. But you'd never think that given their lack of meaningful success. 8-10 wins and consistently finding yourself in the Pac-12 South race only gets you so far when you're not translating it into division titles. Because over the last five years, UCLA only has one despite being the fourth winningest program in the conference during that time span. To make matters worse, this is a program that has been slipping since Brett Hundley left Westwood. Rosen arrived with all the acclaim in the world and has yet to deliver on the promise. Granted, it's hard to live up to the hype when you're spending half the season injured on the sideline. But even prior to Rosen's injury, this is a guy who's lost just as many conference games as he's won despite having the benefit of the second most talented roster around him (according to 247's recruiting profiles). For UCLA to break through to the next tier in the Pac-12, they're going to have to get back to winning the division rather than falling just short of it. Mora's job status and UCLA's program status both depend on it.

6. ARIZONA STATE     Score: 8.42

Summary: Speaking of uncertain job statuses- if there was one seat warmer than Jim Mora's right now, it might just be Todd Graham's. And it's not hard to see why: 28 wins from 2012-2014 (fourth best in the conference) ...and 11 wins ever since. That's simply not going to cut it in the brutally competitive Pac-12. For what it's worth, despite suffering some very disappointing seasons as of late, the Sun Devils still find themselves in the "Knight" tier. But that's largely the result of their success in the early goings of the Todd Graham era. The good news: they've climbed to the top of the Pac-12 mountain before (2013) so they've already proven they know how to get there. The bad news is that relying on shootouts to do so is a very shaky strategy since the conference champions of late have all had some semblance of a defense (if not very elite ones). While I haven't given up hope that Graham still has enough tricks up his sleeve to right the ship, I'm not sure that translates to becoming a "Duke" anytime soon. If Arizona State can somehow find enough success to keep themselves securely in the "Knight" in the foreseeable future, that alone would be a huge victory for a program that's struggling just to stay relevant at the moment. 

7. UTAH     Score: 8.12

Summary: Had Utah managed to win the Pac-12 South in 2015, they would have leapfrogged the Trojans on this list. Had Utah managed to win the Pac-12 South in ANY TWO of the three years in which they fell painfully short, they would already be in the "Duke" tier by now. Unfortunately, those things never came to fruition and Utah continues to remain the one program in the Pac-12 South that (despite all of their on-the-field success) has yet to claim a division title. Nevertheless, you have to respect what Utah has accomplished in their short time as a member of this conference. After arriving in the Pac-12 with the expectation that it might be years before they could adequately contend, Utah now goes toe-to-toe with anyone in the conference and does so with a high level of success. They're arguably the most physical team in the league and boast what might just be the toughest home field advantage in the Pac-12. There's only one reason they're not sitting higher on this list: division titles. For Utah, that means winning down the stretch. Late season collapses from 2014 - 2016 have cost them a shot at the conference championship. And until the Utes figure out a way to sustain their high level of play into late November, they might be stuck in "Knight" status for a while. 

 

SQUIRE  (6-8 points)

8. ARIZONA     Score: 7.78

Summary: Most might be surprised to see Arizona this high up on the list, especially coming off a year where the Wildcats had to pull off an upset in Week 13 just to notch their sole conference victory of the season. But it bears reminding that 2016 marked the first year Rich Rod was unable to get his Wildcats to a bowl game since taking over as head coach five years ago. For a program like Arizona that doesn't seem to have a lot going for it these days, that's a surprisingly impressive stat. But it's certainly not impressive enough to save Rich Rod's job if the Wildcats suffer a repeat of what they went through last season. Beyond missing out on a bowl game, 2016 also served as a critical blow to Arizona's overall ranking within the Pac-12 hierarchy. The Wildcats were solidly in the "Knight" tier prior to last season, ranking ahead of Utah. But Rich Rod's inability to recruit in the trenches finally caught up with him and now he faces a steep climb just to get back to a bowl game and save his job. The Wildcats were bounced out of the "Knight" tier on the heels of a disastrous 2016 and if they can't reverse their fortunes in 2017, they risk falling all the way down to the "Peasant" tier.

9. WASHINGTON STATE     Score: 6.32

Summary: In contrast to the declining Wildcats, the Cougs are a program that's quickly rising through the ranks after breaking out of the lowly "Peasant" tier last season. The first couple years of the Mike Leach era were not a pretty sight. Even their first year back in a bowl game was marred by the single-worst example of couging it that I've ever witnessed. But that's all in the past now as the Cougs have now won 17 games over the last two seasons (fifth best in the Pac-12). As Leach continues to pile up wins on the field, the Cougs are finding themselves on the winning end of more and more recruiting battles. This is a program that's distinctly molded in Leach's image and now the success that marked his tenure at Texas Tech has officially followed him to the Palouse. Unfortunately for the Cougs, the Pac-12 North continues to become more and more competitive. Washington appears to be back to it's historically elite self, Stanford continues churning out 10+ win seasons like clockwork, and Oregon has the sort of resources that ensures it won't stay down for too long. For that reason, the Cougs are going to have a challenging time climbing too much higher in the Pac-12 hierarchy. But as long as they maintain their winning ways, they should ascend to "Knight" status in the very near future. 

 

PEASANT  (4-6 points)

10. COLORADO     Score: 5.92

Summary: Before I get accused of creating a metrics system specifically designed to keep Colorado in the "Peasant" tier for the sake of trolling Jalapeño (to everyone else's amusement), just know that that's absolute blasphemy  All jokes aside, it's pretty impressive to see how a former cellar-dweller like Colorado was able to vault themselves from the bottom of the conference to nearly next tier above in the span of one season. Ah but what a special season it was for the upstart Buffs, who rode the talent and experience of a special senior class to 10 wins and a Pac-12 South title. That success has already reaped the recruiting benefits that typically accompany it and Colorado looks like they may just have enough program draw to bring in the necessary talent that allows that sort of success to continue. Mike McIntyre proved he's one of the best miracle workers in the country but he finds himself in uncharted territory as the head coach of a program that must now maintain winning at a high level. With all the right resources at their disposal, it's not hard to see the upward trajectory continuing for the Buffs and a jump to "Squire" status is all but assured. How much Colorado continues to rise from there will depend on their ability to keep up with the "Knights" of the Pac-12 South (UCLA, Utah, etc.) and steal a win every now and then from USC (a feat they have yet to accomplish since joining the conference). 

11. CAL     Score: 4.84

Summary: The next two programs on this list are actually much closer than people might think. Cal's 5-win season in 2016 was just enough to inch the Bears ahead of the Beavs, who only won 4. But in reality, the margin between these two "Peasants" is razor thin. The difference, however, is this: Oregon State is on an upward trajectory under the stewardship of Gary Anderson, who might just be the most underrated head coach in the country. Cal, on the other hand, is on a downward trajectory, having just fired their head coach and missed out on a bowl game for the fourth time in five years. Justin Wilcox deserves credit for luring some pretty big names to assemble an impressive coaching staff out in Berkeley. But that may not be enough to save Cal in the short term, where the recruiting failures of Sonny Dykes have caught up with the Bears (particularly on defense). Cal is a program that, by virtue of their resources and recruiting advantages alone, should drop no lower than "Squire" status in any given year. But underachieving seasons have slowly taken their toll and the Bears now find themselves in the midst of what could be a long and arduous rebuilding process. For that reason, I would be surprised to see Cal crawl out from it's "Peasant" status in the foreseeable future. But if Wilcox can generate enough small victories to keep his job status safe, you have to like the Bears' long term prospects with the coach staff and facilities in place at Berkeley. 

12. OREGON STATE     Score: 4.80

Summary: Let me start by saying this: the Beavers won't remain "Peasants" for long at the rate Gary Anderson is building up this program. After inheriting a very undesirable situation from his predecessor, Mike Riley, Anderson has transformed Oregon State from a team that couldn't muster up a single conference win in Year One to beating their arch-rival Oregon Ducks in Year Two (and snapping an eight game losing streak). Now, Anderson must continue that ascension and get his Beavs back to a bowl game for the first time in four seasons. Do that and Oregon State will quickly jump back into the "Squire" tier in no time. Any missteps along the way, however, and the Beavs may be stuck in the "Peasant" tier for even longer. The good news for Oregon State: they officially have nowhere to go but up. The bad news: they face the same conundrum that Wazzu does by playing in an increasingly stacked Pac-12 North. Which begs the question: what exactly is the ceiling for a program like Oregon State, even with one of the best head coaches in the country? My gut tells me "Knight" status and the only reason I say that is because a guy like Gary Anderson is bound to get snatched up by another program before the Beavs would be able to make their way to the "Duke" tier. It's a sad reality for Oregon State fans but one that harbors more truth than conjecture.

 

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FORMULA BREAKDOWN

1. Gather individual season win total for every Pac-12 team from 2012 - 2016

2. Win total for 2012 multiplied by 0.12

3. Win total for 2013 multiplied by 0.16

4. Win total for 2014 multiplied by 0.20

5. Win total for 2015 multiplied by 0.24

6. Win total for 2016 multiplied by 0.28

7. Gather division, conference, and national titles for every Pac-12 team from 2012 - 2016

8. 1 point for every Division title

9. 2 points for every Conference title

10. 3 points for every National title (from 2012 - 2013) *not applicable*

11. 4 points for every National title (from 2014 - 2016) *not applicable*

12. Add up #2-6 and #8-11 for every Pac-12 team

 

[Card Tricks]

On a somewhat unrelated note, out of curiosity I went back and looked at the point totals for the two greatest 5-year runs in Pac-12 history: USC (2002 - 2006) and Oregon (2010 - 2014). Oregon ended up just cracking the 20-point barrier (which for the sake of this exercise, we'll refer to as the TITAN tier), while USC was off-the-charts with an absurd 27.8 points. Had Oregon won the National Championship in both their appearances, they would have put up 27.4 points (just short of USC's score but incredible in it's own right). And had USC stopped Vince Young on 4th down and won the 2006 National Championship, they would have garnered a whopping 31 points (which would have put them in their own 30+ point stratosphere- let's call it the GOD tier for now). Given how competitive as the Pac-12 has now become, I'll be shocked to see a program go on a run the likes of USC or Oregon's anywhere in the near future.

[EastCoastFan]

Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford are overrated, particularly the Ducks, even with their relatively easy schedule.  Underrated teams?  USC, Washington State, Colorado, and Oregon State.  All will do measurably better than their rating here.