Opening Lines

[KUGRDON]

 

[glduck]

usc and asu lines seem high, stanford low. 

[KUGRDON]

Friday road game after Saturday road is scary.

[Scscsc89]

No games this week featuring 2 ranked teams.  :-(

[Mano]

1 minute ago, Scscsc89 said:

No games this week featuring 2 ranked teams.  :-(

USC and Utah both in coaches poll

[CRBuff]

Take OSU and the points.  I think the posters on this board may be able to put up 21 points against my Buffs, along with sacking Montez 5 Times.

[Scscsc89]

 

[clpp01]

UCLA +2 must be a typo

[MrBug708]

When you can't stop the run..

[KUGRDON]

3 hours ago, Scscsc89 said:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

interactive and updated after every game.

[Orange]

I feel like Georgia is maybe a good bet.

[All Hail]

2 hours ago, Orange said:

I feel like Georgia is maybe a good bet.

They look fantastic but they are Georgia and if I've learned anything from my Georgia-rooting friend, it's that they will always find a way to choke.  It's in their DNA or so he says.  

[Scscsc89]

Plus it doesn’t help their chances by having to play an extra round of playoffs & presumably draw Alabama in the first round.

[Orange]

Both valid points.

[Mano]

2017 College Football Predictions

 

		RANKING			CHANCES THAT TEAM …			SEE HOW WINS AND LOSSES CHANGE THE FORECAST
TEAM	CONFERENCE	AP	ELO	FPI	WINS CONFERENCE	MAKES PLAYOFF	WINS NATIONAL TITLE	NEXT OPPONENT	WIN?	LOSE?	WIN OUT?
Alabama6-0	SEC	1	1	1	53%	65%	26%	Arkansas	97%	_3%	37%
Clemson6-0	ACC	2	2	3	50%	56%	15%	Syracuse	89%	11%	27%
Washington6-0	Pac-12	5	4	5	44%	43%	10%	Arizona St.	86%	14%	22%
Georgia6-0	SEC	4	3	7	29%	33%	7%	Missouri	96%	_4%	10%
Wisconsin5-0	Big Ten	7	7	8	35%	30%	6%	Purdue	90%	10%	16%
Ohio State5-1	Big Ten	9	12	2	39%	28%	9%	Nebraska	91%	_9%	25%
Penn State6-0	Big Ten	3	5	4	23%	27%	7%	Michigan	80%	20%	15%
Oklahoma4-1	Big 12	12	13	6	29%	18%	4%	Texas	74%	26%	11%
TCU5-0	Big 12	6	11	12	32%	18%	3%	Kansas St.	66%	34%	_7%
Miami4-0	ACC	11	9	13	27%	17%	3%	Georgia Tech	72%	28%	_9%
Auburn5-1	SEC	10	8	9	14%	12%	3%	LSU	67%	33%	_6%
Wash. St.6-0	Pac-12	8	10	18	11%	11%	1%	Cal	75%	25%	_4%
USC5-1	Pac-12	13	6	16	27%	10%	1%	Utah	80%	20%	_6%
Okla. State4-1	Big 12	14	14	11	17%	8%	1%	Baylor	91%	_9%	_7%
Notre Dame5-1	Independent	16	23	10	—_	4%	<1%	USC	62%	38%	11%
NC State5-1	ACC	20	17	17	12%	4%	<1%	Pittsburgh	74%	26%	_3%
Virginia Tech5-1	ACC	15	19	19	6%	3%	<1%	UNC	80%	20%	_3%
Stanford4-2	Pac-12	23	16	15	9%	3%	<1%	Oregon	66%	34%	_4%
Texas Tech4-1	Big 12	24	37	25	5%	1%	<1%	W. Virginia	56%	44%	_1%
Michigan4-1	Big Ten	17	20	20	<1%	1%	<1%	Indiana	62%	38%	<1%
Georgia Tech3-1	ACC	—	21	27	4%	1%	<1%	Miami	28%	72%	<1%
Florida3-2	SEC	—	15	30	2%	<1%	<1%	Texas A&M	58%	42%	<1%
UCF4-0	American	22	42	20	41%	<1%	<1%	E. Carolina	98%	_2%	20%
Texas3-2	Big 12	—	33	24	9%	<1%	<1%	Oklahoma	26%	74%	<1%
Mich. St.4-1	Big Ten	21	31	42	<1%	<1%	<1%	Minnesota	53%	47%	<1%
LSU4-2	SEC	—	18	29	<1%	<1%	<1%	Auburn	33%	67%	<1%
SDSU6-0	Mountain West	19	30	41	50%	<1%	<1%	Boise State	68%	32%	26%
Kentucky5-1	SEC	—	22	52	<1%	<1%	<1%	Miss. State	29%	71%	<1%
S. Florida5-0	American	18	26	45	19%	<1%	<1%	Cincinnati	88%	12%	_7%
Utah4-1	Pac-12	—	25	46	1%	<1%	<1%	USC	20%	80%	<1%
Miss. State3-2	SEC	—	29	20	<1%	<1%	<1%	BYU	90%	10%	_5%
Texas A&M4-2	SEC	—	24	33	<1%	<1%	<1%	Florida	42%	58%	_3%
Oregon4-2	Pac-12	—	36	23	<1%	<1%	<1%	Stanford	34%	66%	_2%
Navy5-0	American	25	48	58	9%	<1%	<1%	Memphis	44%	56%	<1%
Florida St.1-3	ACC	—	28	14	<1%	<1%	<1%	Duke	65%	35%	_6%

 

 

If you buy these odds for winning national title, true odds would be:

Alabama 2.85:1

Clemson 5.6:1

Washington 10:1

Georgia 13.3:1

Wisconsin 15.67:1

tOSU 10.1:1

Penn St. 13.3:1

Oklahoma 24:1

TCU 32.3:1

Miami 32.3:1

Auburn 32.3:1

 

So, if you buy the 538 odds and combine with chart below, it seems there are a few bets that have an overlay. Washington seems like a particularly good bet.