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‘19 Championship Game: Utah/Oregon


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11 hours ago, Jalapeno said:

I have been saying the 8 team playoff would work as PapaG is saying.  By continuing to exclude the P12 from the CFP, all it will take is the threat of antitrust lawsuits to change things around.

So you want to sue to get into the playoffs, and not win games to get into the playoffs …. That's absurd.

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14 hours ago, PapaG said:

They played Rutgers.  Beating the B1G’s version of Vanderbilt is worse than playing Boise State.

But that wasn't the point of your statement.  Your point was to not play P5 OOC opponents at all, and to just play G5 and FCS opponents.

To which I said "would hurt" a team's chances.  You brought up Washington as an example that contradicted my point, when in fact Washington played a P5 OOC opponent.  Even though it was Rutgers, Rutgers is not a G5 or FCS opponent.  And in 2016, Rutgers' only wins came against FCS and G5 opponents - teams you say schools like Oregon should only play in OOC games.  Apparently, in 2016, Rutgers was a better opponent than an FCS or G5 opponent.

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14 hours ago, PapaG said:

Real conferences play 9 conference games.  Ducks and Utes would have piled on a Weber State in late November like SEC teams do against The Citadel.  What a joke only having 8 conference games.

It's a good thing that the PAC12 plays 9 conference games, because statistics show that they struggle in OOC games, and another OOC game would probably generate more losses for the conference.

That being said, why doesn't the PAC12 just move to 8 conference games if they think other conferences are getting an advantage by playing 8 conference games.

Here's the reality:  The PAC12 plays 3 OOC games, instead of 4 OOC games, because of travel and money.  Because there are only 15 FBS OOC opponents (and one P5 OOC opponent) West of Colorado, that means that the PAC12 has to travel anywhere from halfway across the country, to completely across the country, to play other P5 opponents.  With 4 OOC games, such long trips would take place annually.  This is expensive (about $1.5M per trip) and impacts players sleep habits.  Therefore, the PAC12 officials decided to move to 3 OOC games (and 9 conference games) because it was cheaper; reduced cross country trips for a team to about once in 3 years (instead of every year); and didn't subject players to sleep deprivation.

This is not something I dreamed up.  It's a fact.

The PAC12's 9-game conference schedule is not to be a "real conference".  It's a business decision based on cost and player's not being subjected to sleep deprivation.

That being said, a 9-game conference schedule isn't why the PAC12 has struggled to make the playoffs.  The B1G and Big12 also play 9-game conference schedules, and it hasn't hurt their chances of making the playoffs.

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13 hours ago, PapaG said:

I get it, but it’s not like scheduling Ohio State or Auburn.  It was a bad home-and-home decision and it paid of for UDub.  They do typically have a solid P5 OOC game.  The year the Ducks made the CFP they played a solid Michigan State team and had they lost they would have missed the playoffs.

Funny enough, here is an ESPN article about the Ducks’ future schedules.  The SEC fan here can enjoy watching games against Southeast Missouri State in November while the Pac12 is beating up on each other and also playing a real OOC game.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28241718/oregon-ducks-change-scheduling-approach-search-cfp-berth%3fplatform=amp

Oregon Ducks won't change scheduling approach in search of CFP berth

You want to take aim at SEC OOC schedules, while also complaining about early-season, tough OOC games, while pointing out how detrimental they are should a team lose.

What you fail to recognize is that most SEC teams play tough OOC games to open the season, or in week two.  It's a high risk, high reward approach, and it's what has made the SEC to best conference in CFB.  Oregon's HC learned this approach while in the SEC, and he's brought it to Oregon - recognizing the reward it provides when these games are won.

Win these games, and a team has a leg up.

In addition, SEC teams beat each other up in September, when conferences in the PAC12 are playing weak OOC opponents.  By late November, most SEC schedules are completed and the teams playing for the conference championship has already been decided.

I would also add that 25% of the SEC teams' combined OOC schedules are against FCS opponents.  Likewise, 25% of the PAC12 teams' combined OOC schedule are against FCS opponents.  In addition, every SEC teams plays a P5 OOC opponent.  In the PAC12, anywhere from 1-to-3 PAC12 teams do not play a P5 OOC opponent.  Three and sometimes four SEC teams will play two P5 OOC opponents (Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and sometimes LSU).

Here are some of the SEC's 2020 P5 OOC opponents:  USC, Clemson, FSU, Louisville, Texas, ND, Colorado, NC State, Virginia, Kansas State, Baylor, UNC, and Oklahoma.  I'm not sure what you think is so terrible about these OOC opponents.

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6 hours ago, HLB said:

And last:  Oregon didn't miss the playoffs because of their OOC loss to Auburn.  They missed the playoffs because of their loss to 6-loss ASU.  If they had beaten ASU, they might have slipped head of Oklahoma, as a 1-loss PAC12 champion, and made the playoffs.

Had Oregon beaten Auburn and lost to ASU (a 7-5 bowl team) Oregon would be in the playoffs.

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4 hours ago, win2bfree said:

Had Oregon beaten Auburn and lost to ASU (a 7-5 bowl team) Oregon would be in the playoffs.

Absolutely.  But if they had lost to Auburn, and never lost to ASU, they probably would have gotten in, too.  It was the second loss (the loss to ASU) that knocked them out of the playoffs.

@PapaG complaining about playing a tough OOC opponent like Auburn, early in the season, as being detrimental, is nonsense.  It wasn't the loss to Auburn that knocked Oregon out of the playoffs.  It was the loss to ASU.  Beat ASU, and they're probably in, regardless of whether or not they lost to Auburn.

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On ‎12‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 10:04 AM, Chad Sexington said:

Utes need to get out of the mind set that it’s ok to play Weber St and Idaho St and byu in their OOC. We need a big time OOC schedule. This year reminds me of 2010 when we went 10-3 and lost to all the ranked teams on our schedule  

I wanted the Alamo Bowl next year, not this year. 

I've been saying this since September.  What keeps the PAC12 out of the CFP is not the lack of exposure (people East of Colorado do see the PAC12), and not the 9-game conference schedule (the B1G and Big12 play 9-game conference schedules and it hasn't hurt them).  It is the lack of quality OOC opponents, and wins over those opponents.

As you said, Utah has lost to every ranked team they have played (thus far).  And I think there is a chance for that trend to continue with their bowl game.

Utah can beat up on all of the 5 and 6-win, unranked PAC12 teams they want - but until they can schedule and defeat an upper echelon OOC P5 opponent, it's going to be tough to the CFP committee to take them seriously.

Fortunately, beginning in 2022, the Utes upgrade their OOC with consecutive series against Florida, Baylor and Arkansas.

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2 hours ago, Chad Sexington said:

That doesn’t get the Ducks off the hook for losing to ASU. 

If the Ducks play BYU instead of Auburn and still clobbered an overmatched Utah in Santa Clara and it’s Ducks-LSU in the semifina regardless of the fluke loss in Tempe.  Makes no sense to schedule these games in a 4-team playoff.  None.  Go the Utah route and play cupcakes OOC.

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4 hours ago, Chad Sexington said:

If that Friday game had any impact on me, it was to increase my disdain for Oregon. How could they let down this entire conference by sleep-walking through the ASU game. That was a real costly fuck up. 

The loss to ASU saved Oregon and the PAC12 from an embarrassingly severe beatdown at the hands of LSU, Ohio State or Clemson.

And don't discredit ASU for playing a good game.

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1 hour ago, Chad Sexington said:

It’s a terrible disincentive. That’s why CCG winners had to be first consideration. Ducks should at least have displaced OU. 

The objective is to put the four best teams into the playoff.  Oregon is not one of them, even as a CCG winner.

If we automatically advance CCG winners, then OOC games would become irrelevant and fall by the wayside.  Who would care about winning an OOC game if the only thing that would advance your team into the playoffs is to win your conference?  No one.

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2 hours ago, PapaG said:

If the Ducks play BYU instead of Auburn and still clobbered an overmatched Utah in Santa Clara and it’s Ducks-LSU in the semifina regardless of the fluke loss in Tempe.  Makes no sense to schedule these games in a 4-team playoff.  None.  Go the Utah route and play cupcakes OOC.

If Oregon lost to Auburn (as they did), but defeated ASU and won the CCG, they would have been in.  The loss to Auburn didn't hurt their chances.  It was the loss to ASU that hurt their chances.

And where did the Utah route get them?  It did nothing but provide them with a false sense of security.  Even with a CCG win, they would have been jumped by the Oklahoma/Baylor winner.

 

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4 hours ago, Chad Sexington said:

That doesn’t get the Ducks off the hook for losing to ASU. 

If Utah was as good as you tried to claim they were, back in September:  "... bigger, stronger and faster than Oklahoma …. would crush Oklahoma", you wouldn't have to be blaming the Ducks for anything.

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that maybe as gut wrenching a loss as Utah fans have ever experienced.  Three days later is still stuck in the pit of my stomach like an anvil.  Its not so much the loss, but how we were dominated by the Ducks.

If there's one thing I've learned as a fan moving from the G5 to the P5 level, is that the highs are much higher, but the lows ...........  oh those f**king lows.

    

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