How does TCU not jump Auburn?

[Guest SoCalFan80]

TCU was dominant in their road performance against #5 ranked Utah and not rewarded for the victory??? In years past in the BcS (and this took a lot of research on my part) every team that was ranked in the top 5 (BcS poll) that beat another top 5 team have moved up at least 1 spot while in that same week the teams ahead of them that played a Div 1AA opponent or an opponent with a record below .500 stayed in their current spot or dropped at least 1 spot in the BcS polls.

 

Translation...

According to the way the BcS worked in the past and even this season so far, TCU should have jumped Auburn in the rankings.

 

What actually happened...

Auburn stays at #1 in all 7 computer elements with the exception of 1 (RB) after beating a Div 1AA opponent, while TCU improves their computer ranking to #2 (computers had them at #3 before Utah game) but by a very slight margin of .040 which is the smallest increase ever after beating a top 5 team (it took me a whole day to find that out). The human components of the BcS (Harris and USA Today Coaches) moved the Horned Frogs up from #4 to #3 but the point increases, +91 Harris and +48 USA Today, are also the smallest increases in points a top 5 team received after beating another top 5 team especially this late in the season. Oregon actually dropped in the computer rankings 1 spot (#2 to #3) after beating a conference opponent which I found was strange but going back to the BcS trend of top 5 teams beating an opponent with a sub .500 record this was expected (happened to USC on the final week of the season in 03 keeping them out of the title game against LSU). Thankfully the human components that actually watch games still had Oregon ranked #1 by a wide margin to offset the #3 computer ranking.

 

In conclusion...

Something is fishy as to why TCU is not in the top 2 right now. The BcS went against their trend by not having them jump Auburn after beating a top 5 opponent (on the road for that matter) and the increases in points after said win are the lowest ever after beating a top 5 team. Is this all because of the conference TCU/Utah is in that TCU are not getting the #2 spot? It was never stated that "body of work" or "strength of schedule" meant you have to beat a top 5 team that is from a BcS conference. The BcS ranking a team has was always the case when determining quality wins, right? Something's up.

[Guest Chad Sexington]

TCU was dominant in their road performance against #5 ranked Utah and not rewarded for the victory??? In years past in the BcS (and this took a lot of research on my part) every team that was ranked in the top 5 (BcS poll) that beat another top 5 team have moved up at least 1 spot while in that same week the teams ahead of them that played a Div 1AA opponent or an opponent with a record below .500 stayed in their current spot or dropped at least 1 spot in the BcS polls.

 

Translation...

According to the way the BcS worked in the past and even this season so far, TCU should have jumped Auburn in the rankings.

 

What actually happened...

Auburn stays at #1 in all 7 computer elements with the exception of 1 (RB) after beating a Div 1AA opponent, while TCU improves their computer ranking to #2 (computers had them at #3 before Utah game) but by a very slight margin of .040 which is the smallest increase ever after beating a top 5 team (it took me a whole day to find that out). The human components of the BcS (Harris and USA Today Coaches) moved the Horned Frogs up from #4 to #3 but the point increases, +91 Harris and +48 USA Today, are also the smallest increases in points a top 5 team received after beating another top 5 team especially this late in the season. Oregon actually dropped in the computer rankings 1 spot (#2 to #3) after beating a conference opponent which I found was strange but going back to the BcS trend of top 5 teams beating an opponent with a sub .500 record this was expected (happened to USC on the final week of the season in 03 keeping them out of the title game against LSU). Thankfully the human components that actually watch games still had Oregon ranked #1 by a wide margin to offset the #3 computer ranking.

 

In conclusion...

Something is fishy as to why TCU is not in the top 2 right now. The BcS went against their trend by not having them jump Auburn after beating a top 5 opponent (on the road for that matter) and the increases in point after said win are the lowest ever after beating a top 5 team. Is this all because of the conference TCU is in that they are not getting the #2 spot? Something's up.

I am impressed that you did that research.

I wonder, in how many of those previous years did BSPN own the rights to broadcast the BCS bowl games?

Because they do now.

 

Anyone know which conference is receiving the most money from BSPN, at $20mm per team, per year?

If TCU was to move up, and given that Oregon also played an opponent from Div 1, then how many Special Edumucation Conference teams would be in the top five? LSU at #5, you say? Hmmm, is there enough time for them to move up far enough?

 

Nah. It all seems legitimate and above board to me.

[Guest FountainofUte]

There's only one way to combat this: All conferences whose teams play the SEC in post-season bowls needs to beat them more often.

For all of the overzealous praise the SEC gets from the national media (and largely from ESPN) they back it up. Check out the data on this page:

Records in BCS games

 

Florida is 5-1 in BCS games.

LSU is 4-0.

The SEC has a winning percentage of .747 with 19 BCS bowl appearances. The next closest are the MWC and WAC tied at .667 at three appearances apiece. The closest AQ conference to the SEC is (thankfully) the PAC10 with a .615 winning percentage in 14 appearances.

While the B12 has appeared in one more NC game than the SEC, the SEC is 6-0 while the B12 is 2-5.

 

Bottome line: the SEC is owning everyone, at least in the BCS era which is a pretty healthy sample size. There is a lot about the SEC that drives me crazy from their myopic fans, to their weak non-conference schedules, to their lack of non-conference travel, and over abundance of home games.

 

And yet, they deliver when it counts. I have to tip my hat to that. If we want it to change, we need to beat them, especially when it matters.

[Guest jjones163]

Part of the problem is that many national ESPN people such as Herbstreit did not and do not buy that Utah is really that good. Tehrefore it is not seen as that good of a win. My guess is that the NC game will be undefeated TCU and Oregon with Auburn losing to b oth Georgia and Alabama and LSU winning the SEC but not able to move above TCU. Isee Stanford playing in the Rose Bowl against the Big 10 champion likely Ohio State or Michigan State.

 

Jim

[Guest Bone Crusher]

If Auburn wins out, I don't think anyone should dispute that they belong in the BCS title game and they have been screwed out of the BCS title game before so if that was to happen again, that could be the end of the BCS but can Auburn win out in the always tough SEC? If Newton is suspended or injuried, Auburn's offense isn't the same without him and maybe some of the elite defenses will finally slow him down if not stop him. There are also questions surrounding Auburn's defense as well. Auburn finishes their regular season at 'Bama who would cherish a shot to ruin Auburn's grand plans.

 

UO should win out the rest of the way. Playing at Cal should be a win for the Quackers and then they got UA at home before going to Corvallis in the Civil War. It won't be easy for the Duckies but they should do it plus they don't have to worry about a CCG for one more season.

 

TCU wraps up the season one week before the CCGs so it's possible that they lose some ground. They play at SDSU and UNM and if TCU struggles in either one, that could take some votes away from them.

[Guest FountainofUte]

They play at SDSU and UNM and if TCU struggles in either one, that could take some votes away from them.

 

I don't think they'll struggle. They have a chance to set (smash, actually) the season record for lowest average points allowed.

 

Auburn's current record is something like 8.3 points per game. TCU is currently at about 7.2. I think that will motivate the team against one decent team (SDSU) and the other being probably the worst team in all of FBS.

[Guest Bone Crusher]

I don't think they'll struggle. They have a chance to set (smash, actually) the season record for lowest average points allowed.

 

Auburn's current record is something like 8.3 points per game. TCU is currently at about 7.2. I think that will motivate the team against one decent team (SDSU) and the other being probably the worst team in all of FBS.

 

TCU will need to blow out SDSU and UNM to keep the votes. The speedy Quacks of Eugene whipped the Lobos 72-0 in the season opener. Quite the standard to live up to.

 

But if Auburn loses like I believe they will eventually, that shouldn't be an issue unless the voters can't live without a SEC team in the BCS title game which could be LSU.

[Guest FountainofUte]

The speedy Quacks of Eugene whipped the Lobos 72-0 in the season opener. Quite the standard to live up to.

 

That's a good point, Crusher. I had forgotten about that early-season blowout between Oregon and UNM. TCU may have to try to match that.

 

It's hard to hold any team to zero as a conscious goal, but I have no problem thinking TCU could reach the 72 mark. All they have to decide is if they want to and if it's important to. Unlike Oregon, TCU still has to face UNM every year and RUTS always comes back to bite in conference play.

 

Then again, if the price of getting into the NC game was to RUTS in one particular game, that's an easy decision for me.

[Guest SoCalFan80]

Michael Wilbon just stated my case on PTI right now about TCU not moving up based on their win this week and Auburn's win against Cha-ta-noo-ga. He even felt Boise State should have moved up this week too and says he hates the "BcS Cartel" and the pundits such as Herbstreit who is now trying to discredit a #5 Utah team that THE BcS RANKED #5 TO BEGIN WITH!!!

[Guest Bone Crusher]

TCU did beat then ranked #23 OrSU and then ranked #5 Utah.

 

Auburn did beat then ranked #12 South Carolina, then ranked #12 Arkansas, and then ranked #6 LSU. They will have another shot at a ranked team in 'Bama and perhaps another one in the SEC CCG.

 

Oregon did beat then ranked #9 Stanford and then ranked #24 USC on the road. UO will have another crack at a ranked team in Arizona next weekend.

 

Both UO and TCU did win at ranked opponents while Auburn beat all the ranked teams at home. They will have a shot to do that on the road when they travel to 'Bama. Let's not forget that TCU technically won on a neutral site although it was just miles away from the TCU campus against the Beavs.

 

By that thinking, TCU should be #2 ahead of Auburn. Auburn has had a very favorable schedule this year as the tough games are at home while the easy games are on the road. It's of little wonder why they are undefeated.

 

The computer rankings have Auburn at #1, TCU at #2, and UO at #3.

 

If Auburn wins out, they do belong in the BCS title. It will have to come down to between UO and TCU. I want the Ducks in that game too so TCU would have to be left out but that would be a shame.

[Guest Quack 12]

Part of the problem is that many national ESPN people such as Herbstreit did not and do not buy that Utah is really that good. Tehrefore it is not seen as that good of a win. My guess is that the NC game will be undefeated TCU and Oregon with Auburn losing to b oth Georgia and Alabama and LSU winning the SEC but not able to move above TCU. Isee Stanford playing in the Rose Bowl against the Big 10 champion likely Ohio State or Michigan State.

 

Jim

 

Stanford has virtually no chance to play in the Rose Bowl. Oregon would have to lose two of their last three games in order to lose the Rose, and if the Ducks make the championship game, the Rose Bowl MUST choose the highest ranked non-AQ school.

 

 

They only have two ways out of it:

 

1) A non-AQ (TCU/BSU) makes the championship game, or

 

2) Another BCS bowl wants the non-AQ (for example, if the Sugar Bowl wants to match LSU and TCU/Boise State).

 

As it stands now, Wisconsin has the inside track for the Big Ten side of the Rose Bowl, and they'll play Oregon if the Ducks lose once. If Oregon goes to Glendale, TCU will probably go to the Rose.

 

Ask yourself this: If you're the Sugar Bowl committee and you're taking LSU, who do want for their opponent, unbeaten Boise State, or a (potentially) one-loss Ohio State or Michigan State? Remember, it's not about "fair," it's about money, traveling fans, tourism.

 

Stanford would qualify for an at-large berth, but they probably won't get one. They don't travel well. Boise is in a similar situation. They travel well, but they just don't have any population to speak of. I think BSU could conceivably wind up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against 6-6 Washington.

[Guest pappyman]

Stanford has virtually no chance to play in the Rose Bowl. Oregon would have to lose two of their last three games in order to lose the Rose, and if the Ducks make the championship game, the Rose Bowl MUST choose the highest ranked non-AQ school.

 

 

They only have two ways out of it:

 

1) A non-AQ (TCU/BSU) makes the championship game, or

 

2) Another BCS bowl wants the non-AQ (for example, if the Sugar Bowl wants to match LSU and TCU/Boise State).

 

As it stands now, Wisconsin has the inside track for the Big Ten side of the Rose Bowl, and they'll play Oregon if the Ducks lose once. If Oregon goes to Glendale, TCU will probably go to the Rose.

 

Ask yourself this: If you're the Sugar Bowl committee and you're taking LSU, who do want for their opponent, unbeaten Boise State, or a (potentially) one-loss Ohio State or Michigan State? Remember, it's not about "fair," it's about money, traveling fans, tourism.

 

Stanford would qualify for an at-large berth, but they probably won't get one. They don't travel well. Boise is in a similar situation. They travel well, but they just don't have any population to speak of. I think BSU could conceivably wind up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against 6-6 Washington.

 

That is why everyone has to cheer for Alabama to beat Auburn. If they do, TCU will likely go to the Championship Game, which would open up the Rose Bowl for Stanford because the Rose Bowl would no longer be obligated to take a non-BCS team if it loses a team to the National Title. This rule only applies if the non-AQ team is an AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER. In this instance, TCU would be the Automatic Qualifier because it would finish higher in the BCS rankings than Boise State even if both of them were to finish in the Top 12 of the final BCS Standings. Also, there is another scenario that could present itself. If the Pac-10 as it is currently constructed does not produce enough bowl-eligible teams to send a team to the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas (which it probably won't), the game would become an at-large berth scenario against the Mountain West #1 pick. The MWC #1 pick is likely to be Utah (because TCU won't be available), who IMO is probably going to go 11-1 (only loss is to TCU). If the Horned Frogs end up in the Title Game, Boise State will probably NOT be going to a BCS game. Especially if there are a few 1-loss BCS conference teams right behind them that are not conference champions (Wisconsin, LSU, etc.). There is no way that the BCS is going to take a second non-BCS team over 1-loss BCS conference teams. Here are my projections for the BCS Games:

 

BCS National Championship Game:

 

#1 Oregon (12-0) vs. #2 TCU (12-0)

All State Sugar Bowl:

 

Auburn (12-1) vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

 

Discover Orange Bowl:

 

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. LSU (11-1)

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl:

 

Nebraska (12-1) vs. Pittsburgh (9-3)

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio:

 

Michigan State (11-1) vs. Stanford (11-1)

 

This projection, if it were to happen, would leave Boise State out of a BCS Game. Of course, they may not even go undefeated. They still have to play at #21 Nevada (8-1). However, if they were to go undefeated and get left out of a BCS game, they could end up in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas as an at-large against Utah if the Pac-10 does not have enough bowl-eligible teams. That game would be a BCS game in everything but name and monetary pay out. It would likely be a match up of Top 10 teams, which is more than I can say about the potential Fiesta Bowl match up. Both teams (Utah and Boise State) would have beaten BCS conference champions (Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh) during the regular season.

[Guest -AC-]

I was watching espnu's college football round-table discussion the other night...

 

And they were discussing TCU and BSU. Not one of them made a case for TCU. They all pretty much agreed that Utah was a fraud, and that TCU hasn't played as good of a schedule as BSU. The common opponent they played was OSU, and that BSU had a way easier time in their game compared to TCU. They also brought up last years game. Saying both teams are pretty much the same teams from last year, minus 2 or 3 really good players TCU lost to the NFL...

 

Just thought I would share this...

[Guest pappyman]

I was watching espnu's college football round-table discussion the other night...

 

And they were discussing TCU and BSU. Not one of them made a case for TCU. They all pretty much agreed that Utah was a fraud, and that TCU hasn't played as good of a schedule as BSU. The common opponent they played was OSU, and that BSU had a way easier time in their game compared to TCU. They also brought up last years game. Saying both teams are pretty much the same teams from last year, minus 2 or 3 really good players TCU lost to the NFL...

 

Just thought I would share this...

 

Wow, then the people who work for ESPN really are as stupid as they seem to be.

[Guest rb28]

Wow, then the people who work for ESPN really are as stupid as they seem to be.

 

 

Aint that the truth. TCU is the real deal and I'm not just saying that cause the spanked us up and down the field. The last thing I want to see is TCU vs. BSU part 3.

[Guest Chile_Ute]

I was watching espnu's college football round-table discussion the other night...

 

And they were discussing TCU and BSU. Not one of them made a case for TCU. They all pretty much agreed that Utah was a fraud, and that TCU hasn't played as good of a schedule as BSU. The common opponent they played was OSU, and that BSU had a way easier time in their game compared to TCU. They also brought up last years game. Saying both teams are pretty much the same teams from last year, minus 2 or 3 really good players TCU lost to the NFL...

 

Just thought I would share this...

If Utah's a fraud (ranked by their system, btw), then that really doesn't bode well for the BE or B12 North. It's all spin to discredit a deserving team from haviing a shot and keeping the status quo intact.

[Guest -AC-]

If Utah's a fraud (ranked by their system, btw), then that really doesn't bode well for the BE or B12 North. It's all spin to discredit a deserving team from having a shot and keeping the status quo intact.

 

Well these were the 'B' team guys from espnu. But these guys were damn near fired up about this conversation. And let me clarify that they did not use the word "fraud", what they said was that Utah WAS WAY OVER-RATED (with facial expressions that said FRAUD). I think it was Pat Forde that really shit on Utah during the segment.

[Guest Wazzup]

Forget about jumping Auburn... the real question is, what happens to Auburn if they win out but get "jumped" by the NCAA over the Newton pay to play scandal? USC was forged to retroactively vacate all wins where Reggie Bush participated as an "ineligible player". So what happens right now, in real time, assuming there is real fire behind all the Newton smoke? (and at the moment, it appears like its a bonfire) Can the NCAA stand back and let a team being led by the very player who appears to be tainted, play in the National Championship Game, while at the same time having apparent knowledge that this player is involved in a pay-for-play scandal? Its one thing to go back in time and pretend Reggie Bush never existed, stupid and pointless imo, but whatever... but its a whole different ballgame to have it ongoing at this late point in the season and not step in and prevent a NC matchup between a team which very well might have to be disqualified.

 

No, what TCU REALLY has to worry about isn't jumping Auburn... its getting jumped by.... LSU. What, LSU? But they've already lost to,..oh yeah... Auburn... which then gets vacated or forfeited, which means they "didn't play" or "beat" Auburn, which means that LSU is actually undefeated...

 

You heard it here first.

[Guest West Coast]

Forget about jumping Auburn... the real question is, what happens to Auburn if they win out but get "jumped" by the NCAA over the Newton pay to play scandal? USC was forged to retroactively vacate all wins where Reggie Bush participated as an "ineligible player". So what happens right now, in real time, assuming there is real fire behind all the Newton smoke? (and at the moment, it appears like its a bonfire) Can the NCAA stand back and let a team being led by the very player who appears to be tainted, play in the National Championship Game, while at the same time having apparent knowledge that this player is involved in a pay-for-play scandal? Its one thing to go back in time and pretend Reggie Bush never existed, stupid and pointless imo, but whatever... but its a whole different ballgame to have it ongoing at this late point in the season and not step in and prevent a NC matchup between a team which very well might have to be disqualified.

 

No, what TCU REALLY has to worry about isn't jumping Auburn... its getting jumped by.... LSU. What, LSU? But they've already lost to,..oh yeah... Auburn... which then gets vacated or forfeited, which means they "didn't play" or "beat" Auburn, which means that LSU is actually undefeated...

 

You heard it here first.

 

 

I think if Auburn loses its last two (which it may very well do) then LSu has a great shot of making it to the BCS. If Auburn loses its last two to Georgia and Alabama, then it leaves LSU a clear shot of making it to the SEC CCG. That allows LSU another victory over a quality opponent, the SEC EAT winner, while Boise and TCU watches (and potentially has a minor hiccup to lesses teams, thus losing ground in the polls).

 

Its a long shot, but damn...LSU has had a history of getting lucky on their way to the title game.

 

Either way, lets freakin' hope an SEC team makes it to the title game. We need to weigh the options.

 

2 Pac 12 teams in BCS bowl games, with Oregon in a lose lose situation against TCU or Boise....

 

or 1 pac 12 team in the BCS championship game, with the chance of whooping up on the SEC, the Pac 10's arch nemesis in smack talk since 2003.

 

I say the latter is more important, perception wise. I don't think since the BCS era started, a pac 10 team has EVER played a sec team in any bowl game (I'm not including Utah). This is our chance to put our best against their best and have them shut the F up. USC never got the chance to whoop their asses, lets give Oregon the chance to whoop them.

 

GO PAC 10/12!!!!

[Guest Chile_Ute]

Well these were the 'B' team guys from espnu. But these guys were damn near fired up about this conversation. And let me clarify that they did not use the word "fraud", what they said was that Utah WAS WAY OVER-RATED (with facial expressions that said FRAUD). I think it was Pat Forde that really shit on Utah during the segment.

Doesn't surprise me....Forde's been pimpiing the BSU bus all season long. Meh, really pretty used to the patronizing "....they're a good team, BUT..." kind of shite. Utah reached number 5 in the ranking with how the system is set up and teams in front lost....it's not that hard. Anyone that questions the validity of this TCU team needs to have their head checked.

 

I get the PAC wanting a Oregon/LSU match up.....but for my money, I think the most competitive game would be Oregon/TCU. LSU would get clown-stomped by the Ducks, there is no question in my mind on this.