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No Playoffs this Year for Pac-12 Again


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I want to agree with that last point, but if we get a super close/“instant classic” SEC CG I’m not so sure Bama wouldn’t squeeze in even with that second loss. Perhaps not in a normal year, but with two conferences having taken themselves out of consideration, the committee choosing a second SEC team isn’t exactly science fiction. 

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The problem with all of this conjecture is (1) that Cincy may lose to Houston (that wouldn't be a surprise); (2) that the Big-12 champ may have two losses (easy to see how that could happen); (3) that Notre Dame probably will win out; (4) and that the B1G will get only one bid, with Ohio State mowing everybody down.  In other words, we might end up with a playoff featuring (1) Georgia, (2) OSU, (3) Bama, and (4) (yes, it's possible) Notre Dame.

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On 11/21/2021 at 10:39 PM, HLB said:

- Notre Dame won't get in ahead of a 1-loss P5 Champion (in part because ND doesn't play a conference championship, and the absence of that data point hurts them).

- OK State is ranked in the Top-10, and ahead of OU and Baylor .... Defeating OU would give OU their second loss.  They would lose out to Baylor, for an opportunity to play for the conference championship, because Baylor (also 10-2) will won head-to-head against OU.  OK State only has to beat them once.  The winner of the OU/OK State game will play Baylor in the Big12 Championship

- If BAMA loses to UGA, by any margin, they won't make the playoffs.  They have to beat UGA to make the playoffs.  I'm not so sure they can, because UGA has the better defense.

The committee has already shown they are willing to ignore conference championships and considering that Notre Dame is an independent could easily cast it aside "blah blah blah Notre Dame isn't afforded that opportunity blah blah blah".

Oklahoma State has already clinched a spot in the B12 championship game regardless what happens in Bedlam due to the H2H win against Baylor, If OU wins or if Baylor loses to Texas Tech then the B12 title game is a Bedlam rematch.

Regarding Alabama, the committee has purposely ranked Alabama where they are for a reason.  They don't have to worry about Alabama missing the cut if the Tide won the SEC championship that would afford them to jump anyone into the top 4 but by keeping them at #2 maybe #3 if the give tOSU a push it gives them cover to play the "we think there is clear separation between Alabama and (insert team here)" card if Bama were to keep it a close game in the SEC championship against the definitive #1 team in Georgia.

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On 11/22/2021 at 10:44 AM, EastCoastFan said:

The problem with all of this conjecture is (1) that Cincy may lose to Houston (that wouldn't be a surprise); (2) that the Big-12 champ may have two losses (easy to see how that could happen); (3) that Notre Dame probably will win out; (4) and that the B1G will get only one bid, with Ohio State mowing everybody down.  In other words, we might end up with a playoff featuring (1) Georgia, (2) OSU, (3) Bama, and (4) (yes, it's possible) Notre Dame.

I fully expect the Irish to RUTS against Stanford, and for committee members to use that as an excuse to move them above Cincy.

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On 11/22/2021 at 12:13 PM, clpp01 said:

The committee has already shown they are willing to ignore conference championships and considering that Notre Dame is an independent could easily cast it aside "blah blah blah Notre Dame isn't afforded that opportunity blah blah blah".

Oklahoma State has already clinched a spot in the B12 championship game regardless what happens in Bedlam due to the H2H win against Baylor, If OU wins or if Baylor loses to Texas Tech then the B12 title game is a Bedlam rematch.

Regarding Alabama, the committee has purposely ranked Alabama where they are for a reason.  They don't have to worry about Alabama missing the cut if the Tide won the SEC championship that would afford them to jump anyone into the top 4 but by keeping them at #2 maybe #3 if the give tOSU a push it gives them cover to play the "we think there is clear separation between Alabama and (insert team here)" card if Bama were to keep it a close game in the SEC championship against the definitive #1 team in Georgia.

Winning a conference championship is not an automatic qualifier, nor should it be.  The purpose is to advance the four best teams.

You are correct.  An OU win over OK State would provide a rematch between OU and OK State.  That being said, a 12-1 Big12 Champion would make the CFP ahead of ND.

I agree that the committee has ranked BAMA where they are for a reason.  And that reason is because they are exceptionally good, and deserving of their ranking.

However, the Tide only makes the CFP if they beat UGA in the SEC Championship.  A loss to UGA and they're out.

In what years has BAMA been "gifted" a place in the playoffs, when another team was more deserving; and who would that team be?  When they lost to Auburn (their only season loss) and failed to make the SEC Championship (Auburn played UGA), I'm not sure what 1-loss team should have advanced ahead of BAMA.  Every one of the CFP teams (BAMA, UGA, Clemson and OU) had one loss on their resume.  Georgia was crushed by Auburn (40-17) for their loss, they they beat Auburn in the SEC Championship game.

I just don't know who you think was a better team than BAMA, and who should have made the playoffs instead of BAMA (who won the NC).

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On 11/22/2021 at 12:27 PM, Orange said:

We need a 16-team playoff.  Period.  It would revolutionize college football.  This eye-test/brand-name recognition bullshit is stupid.

That is great for the fans, but horrible for the players.  That concept will never happen.

List for me 12 teams, other than the four that made the playoffs, who should have made the playoffs and who had a legitimate chance to win the playoffs, beginning with 2014.

There are not 12 more teams, with a legitimate chance to win the NC, that you can list.  In fact, it's a reach to find 8 teams (overall) who have a legitimate chance to win the NC.

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On 11/22/2021 at 11:28 AM, glduck said:

I want to agree with that last point, but if we get a super close/“instant classic” SEC CG I’m not so sure Bama wouldn’t squeeze in even with that second loss. Perhaps not in a normal year, but with two conferences having taken themselves out of consideration, the committee choosing a second SEC team isn’t exactly science fiction. 

I get amazed at how many people think that BAMA is "gifted" into the playoffs, no matter what.  The perception that so many have is not accurate.

If BAMA doesn't beat UGA in the SEC Championship, they don't get in.  If they beat UGA, both BAMA and UGA get in.

The other two teams will come from a 1-loss B1G Champion, and either a 1-loss Big12 Champion, or Cincy.  A 1-loss Big12 Champion gets in over Cincy.

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On 11/26/2021 at 5:46 PM, HLB said:

Winning a conference championship is not an automatic qualifier, nor should it be.  The purpose is to advance the four best teams.

You are correct.  An OU win over OK State would provide a rematch between OU and OK State.  That being said, a 12-1 Big12 Champion would make the CFP ahead of ND.

I agree that the committee has ranked BAMA where they are for a reason.  And that reason is because they are exceptionally good, and deserving of their ranking.

However, the Tide only makes the CFP if they beat UGA in the SEC Championship.  A loss to UGA and they're out.

In what years has BAMA been "gifted" a place in the playoffs, when another team was more deserving; and who would that team be?  When they lost to Auburn (their only season loss) and failed to make the SEC Championship (Auburn played UGA), I'm not sure what 1-loss team should have advanced ahead of BAMA.  Every one of the CFP teams (BAMA, UGA, Clemson and OU) had one loss on their resume.  Georgia was crushed by Auburn (40-17) for their loss, they they beat Auburn in the SEC Championship game.

I just don't know who you think was a better team than BAMA, and who should have made the playoffs instead of BAMA (who won the NC).

That Alabama team was gifted a playoff spot, look at their resume and point out who they beat that says they were worthy of a playoff spot?  Alabama played 1 good team that season and it was the game they lost.  The SEC had a down year that season with everyone outside of Georgia who they didn't play and Auburn who as mentioned they lost to having at least 4 losses, their best non conference win was against a 4 loss Fresno State team.   Their best conference win was against a 4 loss LSU team that lost to Troy. They got in because of their name and by beating a bunch of average to bad football teams which is the exact same thing schools like Boise St & Utah & TCU had done for years only to be told "but you didn't play anyone" but I guess (we all know its true) that reasoning only applies to those outside the establishment.  You could have taken an undefeated UCF, you could have taken tOSU who's resume ran circles around Alabama, and if you didn't like tOSU's extra loss you could have taken Wisconsin who had a similar resume to Bama with the bonus of a 12th win.

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On 11/26/2021 at 5:52 PM, HLB said:

That is great for the fans, but horrible for the players.  That concept will never happen.

List for me 12 teams, other than the four that made the playoffs, who should have made the playoffs and who had a legitimate chance to win the playoffs, beginning with 2014.

There are not 12 more teams, with a legitimate chance to win the NC, that you can list.  In fact, it's a reach to find 8 teams (overall) who have a legitimate chance to win the NC.

A 16 team playoff would give every team a legitimate chance of competing for a national championship.  What would be better for the players then that?  The only difference between the future 12 team playoff and a 16 team model is the extra 4 spots being given to the conference champions of the other 4 G5 conferences.  The biggest thing missing in college football today is the chance of an upset, the ability for a Gonzaga type team to be born on the field.

 

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On 11/27/2021 at 12:31 PM, clpp01 said:

A 16 team playoff would give every team a legitimate chance of competing for a national championship.  What would be better for the players then that?  The only difference between the future 12 team playoff and a 16 team model is the extra 4 spots being given to the conference champions of the other 4 G5 conferences.  The biggest thing missing in college football today is the chance of an upset, the ability for a Gonzaga type team to be born on the field.

 

You're asking players to play as many at 17 games, in order to win a NC.  That's not good for the players, at the college level.  It's a long and tough physical grind, not to mention the fact that they have to attend classes, complete college-level class work to perform, and maintain grades to be eligible.

And a 12-team playoff is equally stupid.

This isn't basketball.  A Gonzaga-type team isn't going to be born in college football, because of an expanded playoff.  You're not going to see BAMA, Georgia, Ohio State, etc. lose to an Ole Miss, Baylor, BYU, etc.

List for me which the year and the teams, where teams ranked 5-16 could have won the NC.

There are not 16, let alone 12, or 8 teams, that have a legitimate chance of winning a NC.

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On 11/27/2021 at 11:34 AM, clpp01 said:

That Alabama team was gifted a playoff spot, look at their resume and point out who they beat that says they were worthy of a playoff spot?  Alabama played 1 good team that season and it was the game they lost.  The SEC had a down year that season with everyone outside of Georgia who they didn't play and Auburn who as mentioned they lost to having at least 4 losses, their best non conference win was against a 4 loss Fresno State team.   Their best conference win was against a 4 loss LSU team that lost to Troy. They got in because of their name and by beating a bunch of average to bad football teams which is the exact same thing schools like Boise St & Utah & TCU had done for years only to be told "but you didn't play anyone" but I guess (we all know its true) that reasoning only applies to those outside the establishment.  You could have taken an undefeated UCF, you could have taken tOSU who's resume ran circles around Alabama, and if you didn't like tOSU's extra loss you could have taken Wisconsin who had a similar resume to Bama with the bonus of a 12th win.

FSU was a #3 ranking, in BAMA's first game of the season.  FSU's QB wrecked a knee, late in that game, and their season went down the toilet afterwards, and as a result.

BAMA played a ranked LSU, and a ranked Mississippi State.  Ultimately, they beat a highly ranked Clemson, and a #1 Georgia.

I've asked this twice, and you have yet to answer:  What team (or teams) had a better resume and should have been awarded the fourth spot, ahead of BAMA.  Your options are Ohio State, UCF, Wisconsin, Penn State, TCU, Auburn, ND or USC (that rounds out the Top 12). 

If you're going to tell me that BAMA wasn't deserving, you need to tell me why they weren't deserving, what team, or teams, were more deserving, and why those teams were more deserving.

In the end, you can't list a team with a better resume, that was more deserving.

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On 11/27/2021 at 2:55 PM, HLB said:

FSU was a #3 ranking, in BAMA's first game of the season.  FSU's QB wrecked a knee, late in that game, and their season went down the toilet afterwards, and as a result.

BAMA played a ranked LSU, and a ranked Mississippi State.  Ultimately, they beat a highly ranked Clemson, and a #1 Georgia.

I've asked this twice, and you have yet to answer:  What team (or teams) had a better resume and should have been awarded the fourth spot, ahead of BAMA.  Your options are Ohio State, UCF, Wisconsin, Penn State, TCU, Auburn, ND or USC (that rounds out the Top 12). 

If you're going to tell me that BAMA wasn't deserving, you need to tell me why they weren't deserving, what team, or teams, were more deserving, and why those teams were more deserving.

In the end, you can't list a team with a better resume, that was more deserving.

Preseason rankings mean nothing.

2021 Preseason AP poll

#3 Clemson

#7 Iowa St

#10 North Carolina

#13 Florida

#14 Miami

#15 USC

#16 LSU

#17 Indiana

#20 Washington

#21 Texas

Nearly half of the poll and none of them were any good. 

Florida St yeah they lost their QB in that game which sucked for them but in the end they were still a 6 loss team, Alabama doesn't get credit for a beating a team that was good in the past also to note Florida State hasn't been good since then.  They went 7-6 that year then went 5-7, 6-7, 3-6 & 5-7 since so there was a lot more going on there then just an injury.

Alabama beat an over ranked LSU team that had 4 losses including 1 to Troy and a ranked Mississippi St team that also had 4 losses who like Alabama didn't beat anyone of note

I did answer your question, in fact I gave you three different options if you want one in specific.

Ohio State: had 4 wins that were as good or better than Alabama's best win and a conference championship, they played a stronger schedule and had to play a road conference game instead of a 4th OOC game like Alabama used to play FCS Mercer.

 

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On 11/27/2021 at 2:44 PM, HLB said:

You're asking players to play as many at 17 games, in order to win a NC.  That's not good for the players, at the college level.  It's a long and tough physical grind, not to mention the fact that they have to attend classes, complete college-level class work to perform, and maintain grades to be eligible.

And a 12-team playoff is equally stupid.

 

I've heard this argument 1000 times and it's fucking stupid each time. Every other division in college football has been doing it for decades.

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On 11/27/2021 at 6:15 PM, clpp01 said:

Preseason rankings mean nothing.

2021 Preseason AP poll

#3 Clemson

#7 Iowa St

#10 North Carolina

#13 Florida

#14 Miami

#15 USC

#16 LSU

#17 Indiana

#20 Washington

#21 Texas

Nearly half of the poll and none of them were any good. 

Florida St yeah they lost their QB in that game which sucked for them but in the end they were still a 6 loss team, Alabama doesn't get credit for a beating a team that was good in the past also to note Florida State hasn't been good since then.  They went 7-6 that year then went 5-7, 6-7, 3-6 & 5-7 since so there was a lot more going on there then just an injury.

Alabama beat an over ranked LSU team that had 4 losses including 1 to Troy and a ranked Mississippi St team that also had 4 losses who like Alabama didn't beat anyone of note

I did answer your question, in fact I gave you three different options if you want one in specific.

Ohio State: had 4 wins that were as good or better than Alabama's best win and a conference championship, they played a stronger schedule and had to play a road conference game instead of a 4th OOC game like Alabama used to play FCS Mercer.

 

What you fail to comprehend is that FSU "would not" have been a 6-loss team had they not lost their QB, in the BAMA game.  They became a 6-loss team, because they had to play a true freshman at QB, as a result of Franquois' injury. From there, their season quickly unraveled.

LSU's 4th loss came in a bowl game, where several starters chose to sit out, because of the draft.  During the regular season they lost to BAMA, Mississippi State (both ranked) and Troy.  They beat a Top-10 Auburn team and a ranked Florida team.

As for the stronger schedule, I disagree: 

In week one, when everyone was healthy ... FSU = Oklahoma

Fresno State > Army

Colorado State > UNLV

Vandy > Rutgers

Ole Miss > Indiana

TAMU > Nebraska

Arkansas > Maryland

Tenn > Indiana

LSU > Michigan

Mississippi State > Illinois

Mercer < Penn State

But the two reasons Ohio State was not more deserving:

1)  Ohio State lost two games.  BAMA lost one.

Ohio State lost to their P5 OOC opponent, Oklahoma.  BAMA demolished their P5 OOC opponent, FSU to the point that the remainder of FSU's season was ruined.

2)  BAMA's lone loss came to their biggest rival, 10th ranked Auburn.  Ohio State lost to 7-win, and unranked Iowa, 55-24 (and it wasn't that close) .... You want to diminish BAMA's win over an FSU team that ultimately lost 6 games, due to injury to their starting QB, but you somehow want to give Ohio State "credit" for losing to a 5-loss Iowa team, by 31 points

Ohio State lost twice, while BAMA lost once.  But more importantly Ohio State lost by 31 points to an unranked, 5-loss Iowa team.

That's why BAMA made the playoffs ahead of Ohio State.

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On 11/27/2021 at 7:45 PM, EastCoastFan said:

I'd like to meet the player who doesn't want to play 17 games to win the whole thing.  If such a player exists, he's a loser.

Did you play college football?  Because if you did, you wouldn't be touting this ideology.

Furthermore - and you didn't respond to this - name for me 12 more teams that truly have a chance to win the NC, if the playoffs were expanded to 16.

Here's a hint - you can't.  In truth, naming 8 teams that can actually win the NC is a far reach.

IMO - teams have their chance during the course of the year, to prove their merit.  The entire season is a playoff, and the last four standing are who makes the CFP.  Just look at the last two weeks:  Oregon lost to Utah.  Ohio State lost to Michigan.  Oklahoma lost to OK State .... Those teams that lost had their chance, and failed.  What you want to do is give them a second chance, when the current format doesn't provide a second chance, nor should it.

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On 11/28/2021 at 9:26 AM, HLB said:

What you fail to comprehend is that FSU "would not" have been a 6-loss team had they not lost their QB, in the BAMA game.  They became a 6-loss team, because they had to play a true freshman at QB, as a result of Franquois' injury. From there, their season quickly unraveled.

LSU's 4th loss came in a bowl game, where several starters chose to sit out, because of the draft.  During the regular season they lost to BAMA, Mississippi State (both ranked) and Troy.  They beat a Top-10 Auburn team and a ranked Florida team.

As for the stronger schedule, I disagree: 

In week one, when everyone was healthy ... FSU = Oklahoma

Fresno State > Army

Colorado State > UNLV

Vandy > Rutgers

Ole Miss > Indiana

TAMU > Nebraska

Arkansas > Maryland

Tenn > Indiana

LSU > Michigan

Mississippi State > Illinois

Mercer < Penn State

But the two reasons Ohio State was not more deserving:

1)  Ohio State lost two games.  BAMA lost one.

Ohio State lost to their P5 OOC opponent, Oklahoma.  BAMA demolished their P5 OOC opponent, FSU to the point that the remainder of FSU's season was ruined.

2)  BAMA's lone loss came to their biggest rival, 10th ranked Auburn.  Ohio State lost to 7-win, and unranked Iowa, 55-24 (and it wasn't that close) .... You want to diminish BAMA's win over an FSU team that ultimately lost 6 games, due to injury to their starting QB, but you somehow want to give Ohio State "credit" for losing to a 5-loss Iowa team, by 31 points

Ohio State lost twice, while BAMA lost once.  But more importantly Ohio State lost by 31 points to an unranked, 5-loss Iowa team.

That's why BAMA made the playoffs ahead of Ohio State.

If it were just the injury then FSU would have rebounded but track record shows that the 6 loss Florida State team was the real FSU.  You talk about Francois like he was a Heisman level QB.  There was little difference in a Florida St team that went 6-7 without him compared to a FSU team that went 5-7 with him.  He simply wasn't good enough to be the justification when FSU was a bad team.  Florida St was simply a team that was over valued heading into the season yeah they could have won an extra game or two with Francois but nothing in his time there suggests that they would have. 

Preseason rankings are worthless to judge a team by, you want to credit LSU for beating a ranked Florida team when that Florida team went 4-7 and those wins were against 4-8 Tennessee, 5-7 Vanderbilt, 7-6 Kentucky and UAB.  I believe you mentioned it earlier this year with LSU after the UCLA game (which you were right) they weren't as good as their rankings had them Florida and Florida State among several others were the same that season.

You don't have to take my word for it on SOS when you could go look at saragin and see for yourself.  tOSU had the 13th strongest schedule and Bama was 37th.

Bama ---- tOSU

Division games

Auburn < Penn St

Mississippi St < Michigan St

LSU = Michigan

TAMU = Indiana

Ole Miss > Maryland

Arkansas > Rutgers

Cross Division

Vandy < Nebraska

Tenn > Illinois

OOC

Florida St < OU

Fresno St = Army

Colorado St > UNLV

Wildcard #1

FCS Mercer <<<<<<<<<<<<<< 9th conference game @ Iowa

Wildcard #2

N/A <<<<<<<<<<<<<< B1G championship game against top 10 Wisconsin

I'm not ignoring the the 2nd loss to Iowa but rather cancelling it out by Bama playing an FCS school in November (tOSU didn't play an FCS team at all) and their lack of marquee victories with their best win being comparable to tOSU's 4th best, then I give tOSU the edge by virtue of having won a conference championship.

If you are saying that losses are what matter in college football and it doesn't matter that Alabama played a softer schedule compared to tOSU then Bama should not have gotten in ahead of undefeated Central Florida but and this is where the committee cherry picks viewpoints to fit their narrative the same argument they ignored about tOSU having better wins and a stronger schedule all of a sudden is now the case they use to take Bama ahead of Central Florida.

If they want to shift their argument to being well you need to mix losses with quality wins then Bama would fall behind Wisconsin who had more good wins then Bama did and their only loss happened in a conference championship game that Alabama wasn't able to qualify for on their side.

No matter what argument they wanted to use there was a team that beat Bama out so without no other option available to them they fall back to good old eye test which is as mentioned is nothing more then the because I said so excuse.

 

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On 11/28/2021 at 9:31 AM, HLB said:

Did you play college football?  Because if you did, you wouldn't be touting this ideology.

Furthermore - and you didn't respond to this - name for me 12 more teams that truly have a chance to win the NC, if the playoffs were expanded to 16.

Here's a hint - you can't.  In truth, naming 8 teams that can actually win the NC is a far reach.

IMO - teams have their chance during the course of the year, to prove their merit.  The entire season is a playoff, and the last four standing are who makes the CFP.  Just look at the last two weeks:  Oregon lost to Utah.  Ohio State lost to Michigan.  Oklahoma lost to OK State .... Those teams that lost had their chance, and failed.  What you want to do is give them a second chance, when the current format doesn't provide a second chance, nor should it.

You do realize that the quality of the team has never mattered when it came to postseason expansion right?  Look how often the current playoff games have been blowouts and that isn't stopping them from jumping up to 12, its just a power grab to give the SEC an opportunity to fill the field with a group of 3 loss  at large teams.  Going from 12 to 16 is simply removing part of the corruption within the sport by giving every single team a legitimate chance of competing for a championship.  Like every other major sport you win your conference you have played your way into an opportunity to play for a championship and it should be the same in college football.

Cincinnati lets say they beat Houston in the AAC championship game to finish the season undefeated yet if Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all also win then there is a better than good chance that Cincy will be passed over and not even have the opportunity to play for a championship as the only undefeated team in the FBS.  With 16 teams then every conference champion will have earned their way in by winning on the field and schools like Cincinnati won't have to worry about being left out due to backroom politics.

 

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