Picking Up The Pieces

[HLB]

I said this last fall, with a great deal of objection from PAC12 fans .... The PAC12 is imploding.  Point the finger at ESPN, etc., but the blame rest on the shoulders of the poor PAC12 leadership, beginning with the silly PAC12 Network that is not available to the majority of the US.

According to a report from Stewart Mandel and Max Olson of The Athletic, the Big 12 has had contact with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah - all members of the PAC 12. The report also states that they are in "deep discussions" with Gonzaga, who has become one of the best men's basketball programs in the country.

[HLB]

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

As a BIG Ten football fan from Ohio, who was stationed at Ft. Ord, California with the U.S. Army in the early 80’s, I thoroughly enjoyed watching PAC 12 football Games.  

I agree that PAC12 games are competitive and fun to watch.  The problems are:  (a) You have to live on the West Coast (as you were doing in the 80's) to see the majority of their games; and (b) their overall product has declined in comparison with other conferences.  As a conference, their overall OOC record, in the last 20 years, is lame (particularly when they compete with the traditional powers).

 

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

As a kid I loved watching those Rose Bowl games between USC and Ohio State during the Woody Hayes and John McKay era.

As a kid (60's and 70's) I loved watching the Rose Bowl too.  I was, indeed, the Grandaddy of the All.  But Woody Hayes and John McKay aren't around anymore, and neither is the quality of football in the PAC12, nor the mystique of the Rose Bowl .... Today, the Rose Bowl isn't what it used to be, and only PAC12 fans revere that bowl (because it's their pinnacle, given that they can't ever compete for a NC in the FBS).

 

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

This move makes makes me ill as a ‘College Football fan’

Me, too.  But the PAC12 can only blame themselves.  So much of CFB top talent annually leaves the West Coast for teams in the East.  Who's fault is that?  The product is not what it used to be, which means the PAC12 revenue is not what they could be.  If that statement is false, then USC and UCLA would not feel the need to join the B1G.

 

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

If I was the PAC 12 Commissioner, I would petition as a Conference to the California State Legislature and the California Governors Office to keep UCLA in the PAC 12, since the Bruins are a California State University funded by California State Taxpayers.

They did, and they failed.  the California State Legislature endorsed UCLA's move to the B1G.

 

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

proceed with lightening speed to build a PAC-24 member Western Super-Conference with the following teams;

Far easier said than done.  It's not a fast process to onboard teams from other conferences, due to a lot of legal wrangling.

That being said, there also has to be a good reason for teams to want to jump to the PAC12.  And as it stands, all of the P5 teams you list (Big 12 teams, Nebraska, Missouri, etc.) are all garnering more revenue with their current conferences and contracts than the PAC12 could top.

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

If FOX Sports will not give the PAC 12 Conference a decent media-deal, then seek out one of the other sports networks, such as… (NBC Sports) or (CBS Sports).

Define "decent media deal".  Rest assured, NBC, CBS nor ESPN would offer a better deal.  The deal that is offered is based on the ability of the networks to make a dollar.  These are not non-profit organizations.  And as long as viewership is not high, then the offers are not going to be as "decent" as you might think the PAC12 can get.

 

On 7/2/2022 at 4:04 PM, Footballfan said:

Call the SEC and BIG TEN Conferences bluff.

They're not bluffing.  They're not blowing smoke.  They're actually "doing".

What the conference needs to do is to stand pat at 10 teams.  They were at their peak with 10 teams.

(A).  Build the quality of their product by keeping top West Coast talent, in the West, and (B).  Take "whatever TV deal" they can get (as opposed to what they think they should get) and allow that network to make their games available to the entire country.  (C).  Allow that network to take over control of the PAC12 Network and let them build that programming into a national channel that everyone in the country can access.

The conference needs to quit with the knee-jerk reactions, because at this point, they can't match what the SEC and B1G are doing.  They need to build their product and make it attractive to fans and other schools.  Then they can start trying to compete with the SEC and B1G for conference power.

[HLB]

On 3/3/2023 at 10:20 PM, Aztecgolfer said:

the PAC cannot afford to lose SD to the B12

The Big12 isn't pursuing SD

[HLB]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

and there is less competition after 7PM PST.

And I'm saying that "after" 7PM PST (11PM EST and 10PM CST), fans won't be tuning in to games kicking off at that hour.  For viewership, the PAC12 needs to do two things: (1) start games from 11AM-to 5PM, and (2) make the PAC12 network accessible, nationwide.

 

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

Streaming via either Amazon or Apple, the latter seems to be making a bigger push recently, will reach more people than the P12N

Their has to be viewership interest for people to want to stream Amazon or Apple.  The interest, across the country, isn't enough, and won't be profitable to the conference (or Amazon or Apple).  Traditional programming is the best option for the PAC12 to obtain viewership.  They need to secure a TV deal with a viable network, and let them take over the PAC12 network, as well.

 

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

Their TV service is underperforming but they have added MLB and MSL to their ticket.

MLB and MSL have far more than 10 teams and carry a national appeal.  The same cannot be said for the PAC12.

For the MLB, Apple is down the line in their programming network options for viewers, and the least lucrative.  Soccer is not as popular as other sports.  For the MSL, Apple is a starting point that is an attempt to get their product out to the masses.

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

However, streaming is the future.

True.  But the future isn't here, and like traditional networks, the product needs to be attractive enough for people to stream.  Right now, I don't think the PAC12 is attractive enough for the entire country.

 

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

SAC St and UC Davis

This reference is an exaggeration made to stress a point.  Neither of these schools are P5 programs, and neither is SDSU.  That was my point.

Don't add schools just for the sake of adding schools - particularly when there's no need to add schools.

On 3/3/2023 at 9:50 AM, Aztecgolfer said:

SDSU received their offer from the PAC in October.

Like I said, the PAC12 doesn't need to get desperate and start adding schools for the sake of adding schools.

With regards to the SD market - who is going to take over the SD market if UCLA and USC are gone?  The B1G?  I'm not so sure there are viable programs or P5 conferences near SD that would cause the PAC12 to entirely lose the SD market.

A greater concern for the PAC12 is the LA market, not the SD market, and adding SDSU will not counter the loss of the LA market that would go with USC and UCLA.

As for SDSU going to the Big 12 - the Big 12 is currently focused on AZ, ASU, Colorado and Utah.  Not SDSU.

The PAC12 needs to stand pat and focus on the 10 teams they have and stop panicking.

[Aztecgolfer]

On 3/4/2023 at 5:39 AM, HLB said:

The Big12 isn't pursuing SD

According to a couple of very reliable posters on the SDSU board, we already know what they are offering and how long it would be before getting a full share.

[Aztecgolfer]

On 3/4/2023 at 8:10 PM, Aztecgolfer said:

According to a couple of very reliable posters on the SDSU board, we already know what they are offering and how long it would be before getting a full share.

You miss the point I am making regarding viewers out west as it pertains to ESPN. They broadcast sports and they need product from 7PM PST on. Sure, the PAC should have some games during the day, and they do.

I have not said that the PAC contract is going to be streaming only. ESPN is involved. As for Apple, I just say don't count them out. They are the biggest, best capitalized company in the world. They are known to be innovative. There are people like Bezos and Musk that believed that the future was "now" and got rich off it. Were Utah and TCU "P5" schools when they were in the Mountain West? When you move up you tend to attract, and compensate, better talent. San Diego does have a strong history of football by the way. The modern passing game was invented here in the 60s.

There is nothing the PAC can do to reestablish themselves in LA. That is gone. However, the PAC, via USCLA, do claim the San Diego market as part of their DMA. Bob Thompson wrote on this months ago. Why wouldn't USCLA continue to claim this market when the join the B1G? So, if the PAC wants to lose those 1.1M TV households then don't invite SDSU. Like I said, we would then take the B12 offer. Things changed regarding SDSU when USCLA announced they were leaving.

By the way, the LA market is large but you have a lot of competition. In LA itself, you have two NFL teams, two NBA teams, a MLB team, an NHL team and 2 MSL teams. Then within an hour's drive you can add another MLB and NHL team. You want a following in LA you better win. In football, I do think USC can be successful in the B1G but am much less sure about UCLA. They still have to pay down a lot of debt and are tied to the Rose Bowl through 2042. They have struggled to win in the PAC, the B1G will be much tougher. Last year they were giving away football tickets and managed to half fill the RB on average. Throwout the outlier USC game and that average drops quite a bit. UCLA may do alright in BB but the travel will be hard on them. Traveling to the east is always harder than to the west. USC doesn't care about BB.

I don't believe the PAC is panicking. They are losing two important programs, can't sugar coat that. For a good media deal they need inventory, and replacing those schools protects their  So, did the B12 "panic" by adding 4 non-P5 schools to replace the loss of their 2 biggest brands? The PAC will end up together until at least 2030. UW and UO have nowhere to go and the only ones from the 4 corner schools who seem eager to move are the Arizona fans, though this seems to be egged on by a Zona honk named Jason Scheer. Sorry, the Zona president isn't going to leave the 6 other AAU schools in the PAC for an academically weaker conference. Personally, were Zona to leave they would be more than adequately replaced athletically by SDSU. As for market, San Diego is three times larger than Tucson. But, that just ain't gonna happen. Not at this time.

[HLB]

On 3/4/2023 at 11:20 PM, Aztecgolfer said:

So, did the B12 "panic" by adding 4 non-P5 schools to replace the loss of their 2 biggest brands?

Over a 15-year period, the PAC12 lost Colorado, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Missouri.

And they stood pat, for the last 10 years, as a 10-team conference.  They didn't panic.

After OU and Texas announced they were leaving, the Big12 aimed to add teams because (a) NCAA rules mandates that a P5 conference has at least 10 teams, and (b) because they are having to keep up with the Jones' by trying to build a 16-team (or higher) conference (that's why they are pursuing AZ, ASU, Colorado and Utah).  Those are not panic moves, but sound moves to boost their conference with legitimate P5 programs.

And IMO, I think UCF, Cincinatti, BYU and Houston are more suited to move to the P5 level, than SDSU.

 

 

[EastCoastFan]

Interesting...BYU fan post?

https://twitter.com/hornymcfrog/status/1632801221680455681?s=46&t=TaWQKdJPSF5SJX3jnaee2A

 

[row Z]

does this mean something? i have no idea. 

[Quack 12]

On 3/3/2023 at 4:15 PM, HLB said:

I'm not the one who spoke for 80% of the nation.  The SDSU fan did.  I only used his numbers and his percentages (as indicated in my response).

And I'm not so sure that you can legitimately speak for media companies and state that "inventory" is important to broadcasting networks.  What is important to media companies is making money.  And networks such as ESPN and Fox Sports are looking for games that have national appeal, more that regional appeal, because that yields more money.

PAC12 fans like yourself need to make up your minds.  Do you want regional appeal or national appeal?  The complaint that PAC12 fans so often reciprocate is that they don't get consideration for the CFB playoffs, etc., because they feel that the PAC12 doesn't get enough national exposure.  Now you're telling me that SMU and SDSU would garner regional viewership, and that's all that's necessary.

I quoted you. You wrote, "Speaking for the 80% ... "

And yes, inventory is important, and it equates to money.

So Mike Bellotti has "an impending sense of doom" and is "teetering on the brink." He also once infamously said following a CW loss: "We didn't lose, we just ran out of time."

In case you weren't aware, not all college football games are "marquee match ups." Does a Mississippi State @ Vandy game have more appeal than Oregon State @ SDSU? I think most fans of college football who watch games in which they don't have an emotional investment just want to see an exciting game, I know I don't really care who the participants are.

[row Z]

deleted post

[azgreg]

 

[row Z]

On 3/9/2023 at 2:30 PM, azgreg said:

 

Thanks AZGreg, I posted the wrong link. 

[HLB]

On 3/8/2023 at 2:34 PM, Quack 12 said:

I quoted you. You wrote, "Speaking for the 80% ... "

And yes, inventory is important, and it equates to money.

So Mike Bellotti has "an impending sense of doom" and is "teetering on the brink." He also once infamously said following a CW loss: "We didn't lose, we just ran out of time."

In case you weren't aware, not all college football games are "marquee match ups." Does a Mississippi State @ Vandy game have more appeal than Oregon State @ SDSU? I think most fans of college football who watch games in which they don't have an emotional investment just want to see an exciting game, I know I don't really care who the participants are.

If you read the entire thread, I was replying to @Aztecgolfer who stated:  "... 20% of the US population lives west of the Rockies. Should they be ignored?"

Based on "his" numbers and percentages, I spoke for the 80% east of the Rockies (using his numbers, not mine) to which he was referring.  Follow the entire exchange.

And inventory is important.  But that doesn't mean to just add anyone.  Adding the entire MWC will increase inventory, but it doesn't improve the product.

Mike Bellotti isn't the only one saying this about Big12 expansion.

If those are the only two games on national TV, "Yes", Vandy at MS State has way more appeal than Oregon State at SDSU.  Are you saying that Oregon State at SDSU would be an "exciting game"?

And those who don't have an emotional investment, are not actual CFB fans.

[row Z]

This article from KSL Sports in Salt Lake City says that Pac12 media negotiations should land a deal in the range of what the Big12 got, and that demise of the conference is not imminent. 

https://kslsports.com/499432/opinion-making-sense-of-the-latest-pac-12-media-rights-rumors/

 

[HLB]

On 3/11/2023 at 7:41 PM, row Z said:

This article from KSL Sports in Salt Lake City says that Pac12 media negotiations should land a deal in the range of what the Big12 got, and that demise of the conference is not imminent. 

https://kslsports.com/499432/opinion-making-sense-of-the-latest-pac-12-media-rights-rumors/

 

From the article: 

"I want to emphasize I am not promising or guaranteeing anything and what I say is subject to change as new information becomes available."

"What I just shared could easily change next week."

Everything hinges on the conference leadership's leadership

[Orange]

On 3/10/2023 at 3:38 PM, HLB said:

If you read the entire thread, I was replying to @Aztecgolfer who stated:  "... 20% of the US population lives west of the Rockies. Should they be ignored?"

Based on "his" numbers and percentages, I spoke for the 80% east of the Rockies (using his numbers, not mine) to which he was referring.  Follow the entire exchange.

So again, you spoke for 80% of America, stupid.

[Orange]

On 3/12/2023 at 9:20 AM, HLB said:

From the article: 

"I want to emphasize I am not promising or guaranteeing anything and what I say is subject to change as new information becomes available."

"What I just shared could easily change next week."

Everything hinges on the conference leadership's leadership

Never seen anyone root so hard for a conference to die.  Then where will you post more of your inane, nonsensical screeds?

[Aztecgolfer]

On 3/13/2023 at 7:57 AM, Orange said:

Never seen anyone root so hard for a conference to die.  Then where will you post more of your inane, nonsensical screeds?

The PAC isn't going to die. It won't get the number it was looking for this time around because the B12 signed early and likely left money on the table. It is like having a neighbor sell his house below market price and then you trying to sell yours afterwards. As I have read, the B12 deal was more like an extension of their current deal while adding 4 new schools. The PAC is negotiating a completely new deal while also dealing with Amazon and Apple who are new to college athletics. It looks like the PAC wants their deal to terminate in 2029 so that it allows schools the freedom to pursue other opportunities. The shorter the deal, the more it negatively effects the dollar amount.

Washington and Oregon don't have anywhere to go. The B1G isn't calling them right now and also know they can add them whenever they want, if they want. Cal already was told "no way Jose" by the B1G and I think Stanford would prefer staying in an intact PAC as they hate the idea of paying players while the B1G is embracing that concept. There is also talk that neither USC or UCLA want the B1G to add more PAC schools. The "4 corner schools" are not going anywhere unless the PAC implodes. Supporters of the B12 are the ones pushing "the PAC is dead" narrative and it has come to light this may be driven by their consulting agency, Endeavor. All four of the "corner" schools value their association with their academic peers in the PAC; going to the B12 is a big step down in academic prestige. Presidents, not athletic directors, vote on staying, moving and expanding when it comes to conference affiliation. 

It looks like ESPN will still get to air the best games each week and Amazon seems to want to have Friday night games. Whether it is Amazon, Apple or both, the PAC will get more exposure via second tier rights with them than via the PAC Network. I think adding Apple would be a great thing. They are better capitalized than any of the other networks/streamers, have a history of being very innovative, and their TV service has been underperforming. They added MLB and MSL to their lineup so it looks like they want to be a player in the sports market.

[Orange]

What we've learned is that pretty much every university in the conference, save for Washington State and Oregon State, has an escape parachute option to some other P5 conference should the SEC/B1G/Big 12 poach the other 8 teams.  That's the bottom line.  Stanford, Cal, Oregon, UW, ASU, UA, CU, Utah, etc., are all fine.  WSU and OSU are fucked, save for a miracle arriving in the form of some wicked TV deal that appeals to the bulk of the other 8 schools.

It's as simple as that.  If the Pac implodes, and WSU and OSU end up looking for homes in the WAC or MWC, those schools will be absolutely decimated, financially.   And the communities with them.  It's a bummer, but it's the truth.   Everything else is just background noise.