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SC89's 2022 Simple Ratings


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I think I got this right -- I'm a little rusty ...

 

SC89's Simple Ratings -- Week Two

Current    Team    Total

      BYU    1.25    
1    USC    1.25   


2    WSU    1.13   


3    Oregon St    1.00   


T4    Cal    0.88   
T4    UCLA    0.88   
T4    Washington    0.88   


T7    Arizona    0.00   
T7    ASU    0.00   
T7    Oregon    0.00   
T7    Stanford    0.00   


       Fresno State    -0.13    
       SDSU    -0.13   
11    Utah    -0.13   


12    Colorado    -1.50  


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent        
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent        
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)        
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent        
        
subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent        
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)        
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent        
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent        
        
Divide by number of games played        
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played        

 

 

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It has come up & one season, some dude was so fired up over it that he re-did them with a home-away component.

my take is that it doesn’t really move the needle in the long run.  Good teams will overcome any road disadvantage & factoring it in would make it a lot less simple for me.

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Week 3

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    USC    1.17    (1)
T2    Washington    1.08    (T4)
T2    WSU    1.08    (2)
T4    Oregon St    0.92    (3)
T4    UCLA    0.92    (T4)

    BYU    0.58    

6    Oregon    0.50    (T7)
T7    Arizona    0.25    (T7)
T7    Cal    0.25    (T4)
T7    Utah    0.25    (11)
10    Stanford    0.00    (T7)

    Fresno State    -0.33    
    SDSU    -0.33    

11    ASU    -0.67    (T7)
12    Colorado    -1.33    (12)


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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Week Four

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    USC    1.25    1    (1)   
2    Washington    1.19    T2    (T4)   
3    UCLA    1.06    T4    (T4)   
4    Oregon    0.75    6    (T7)   


    BYU    0.69            


5    WSU    0.63    T2    (2)   
T6    Cal    0.56    T7    (T4)   
T6    Utah    0.56    T7    (11)   
8    Oregon St    0.50    T4    (3)   
9    Arizona    -0.06    T7    (T7)   
10    Stanford    -0.25    10    (T7)   
11    ASU    -0.69    11    (T7)   
12    Colorado    -1.25    12    (12)   



add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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I find FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP) and unranked FCS opponent to not make sense. FBS and FCS teams aren't ranked in the same poll. There will never be an FCS team that is ranked. 

Also, I find treating the 16th ranked team in the nation the same as the worst P5 team in the nation for win credit to be off-putting. Oregon gets 1.5 points for beating #19 BYU and UCLA gets 1.5 points for beating the worst P5 team in the nation in CU? I know it's a simple ranking but we're talking about something that could literally have two team separated by 100 ranks if we did 1-130 having the same value.  

Oregon's total should be (0-.5+.75+1.5+1.5)/4 = .8125. 

 

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On 9/26/2022 at 4:52 PM, dtd said:

I find FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP) and unranked FCS opponent to not make sense. FBS and FCS teams aren't ranked in the same poll. There will never be an FCS team that is ranked. 

Improbable but not impossible.  FCS teams can get votes in the AP poll:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2016-09-19/fcs-football-north-dakota-state-cusp-history-ap-top-25

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On 9/26/2022 at 4:52 PM, dtd said:

Also, I find treating the 16th ranked team in the nation the same as the worst P5 team in the nation for win credit to be off-putting. Oregon gets 1.5 points for beating #19 BYU and UCLA gets 1.5 points for beating the worst P5 team in the nation in CU?

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯      You've got to put a line somewhere between really good teams and average teams.   To me, #16-25 doesn't impress me because one loss and you're back in the meh -- especially at this part of the season.  You could put another layer in between pretty good and okay teams, but why bother.   

Maybe BYU will continue winning & the Ducks will get more credit for beating them.

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On 9/26/2022 at 7:54 PM, Scscsc89 said:

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯      You've got to put a line somewhere between really good teams and average teams.   To me, #16-25 doesn't impress me because one loss and you're back in the meh -- especially at this part of the season.  You could put another layer in between pretty good and okay teams, but why bother.   

Maybe BYU will continue winning & the Ducks will get more credit for beating them.

I get it, I just don't think beating 13-1 Louisiana or 10-4 Iowa should be the same as beating 1-11 Arizona. /shrug

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On 9/26/2022 at 4:52 PM, dtd said:

Oregon's total should be (0-.5+.75+1.5+1.5)/4 = .8125.

 

Whoops -- you're right.  Thanks.

I was giving teams -0.75 for losing to Top 15 instead of -0.5.  It affects a number of other teams as well--Stanford, BYU, ASU, Wazzu, Stanford but only changes Oregon State's rank). 

I think it should be ...

 

Week Four

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    USC    1.25    (1)
2    Washington    1.19    (T2)
3    UCLA    1.06    (T4)
4    Oregon    0.81    (6)

    BYU    0.75    

5    WSU    0.69    (T2)
T6    Cal    0.56    (T7)
T6    Utah    0.56    (T7)
T6    Oregon St    0.56    (T4)
9    Arizona    -0.06    (T7)
10    Stanford    -0.08    (10)
11    ASU    -0.56    (11)
12    Colorado    -1.25    12)

 

 

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On 9/26/2022 at 5:59 PM, dtd said:

I get it, I just don't think beating 13-1 Louisiana or 10-4 Iowa should be the same as beating 1-11 Arizona. /shrug

 

Yeah, maybe -- then again the pollsters & CFB committee are also similarly biased towards P5 wins -- so while unfair, it may be pragmatic.

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On 9/26/2022 at 8:02 PM, Scscsc89 said:

 

Whoops -- you're right.  Thanks.

I was giving teams -0.75 for losing to Top 15 instead of -0.5.  It affects a number of other teams as well--Stanford, BYU, ASU, Wazzu, Stanford but only changes Oregon State's rank). 

I think it should be ...

 

Week Four

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    USC    1.25    (1)
2    Washington    1.19    (T2)
3    UCLA    1.06    (T4)
4    Oregon    0.81    (6)

    BYU    0.75    

5    WSU    0.69    (T2)
T6    Cal    0.56    (T7)
T6    Utah    0.56    (T7)
T6    Oregon St    0.56    (T4)
9    Arizona    -0.06    (T7)
10    Stanford    -0.08    (10)
11    ASU    -0.56    (11)
12    Colorado    -1.25    12)

 

 

lolol, I checked all the other teams but those. Actually I did BYU but I didn't count Oregon as a top 15, haha. 

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