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What We Thought We Knew After 3 Weeks


Pac12Fan

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Last week I posted that the Pac 12 Championship goes through Southern California. I take back everything I said.

 

Our conference will beat each other up and probably won't get a spot at the top 4 table.

 

What happened to SC?

What happened to my Bruins?

Stanford? Where did that come from?

 

There doesn't appear to be a clear cut favorite.

 

My power rankings have changed.

 

Oregon

Stanford

Utah

ASU

USC

UCLA

Arizona

Cal

Washington

Oregon State

Colorado

Washington State

 

Not much difference in top 5 and bottom 4.

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Stanford? Where did that come from?

 

Well, they were ranked #21 coming into the season so it's not like it's completely out of nowhere.

 

We were pretty easy to forgive other team's week 1 rustiness -- except for Stanford for some reason.

 

USC vs. ASU -- who the hell knows what to expect.

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Well, they were ranked #21 coming into the season so it's not like it's completely out of nowhere.

We were pretty easy to forgive other team's week 1 rustiness -- except for Stanford for some reason.

USC vs. ASU -- who the hell knows what to expect.

SC has better talent than Stanford, apparently not better coaching. Stanford's game plan was perfect and really exposed the secondary. I just watched the game. Coaching lost this game.

 

Utah looked tough. They gave up 3 cheap scores at the end of the game. I'm sure their coach will be pissed off that they let off the gas at the end.

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Coaching is certainly a factor, but the SC lines are suspect.

 

The SC defense knows Stanford is going to run it up the middle. The coaches tried different formations, the line couldn't stop them from getting 4-6 ypc on first and second down. That's on the players ( and props to Stanford)

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The coaches tried different formations, the line couldn't stop them from getting 4-6 ypc on first and second down. That's on the players ( and props to Stanford)

 

Those same players (Stanford's) got pushed around all day by Northwestern on both sides of the line. My gut reaction after Week 1 was that Northwestern was mediocre and Stanford was just plain terrible. But now just two games later, I'm starting to reassess my initial conclusion and beginning to wonder whether Northwestern was actually pretty darn good or USC was just pretty darn bad. While I'm sure the truth lies somewhere in between, I'll go on record saying that Northwestern wins 9-10 games this year. Just take a quick peek at their schedule if you don't believe me. Stanford and USC on the other hand... who the hell knows  :huh:

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Oregon is still your best shot at making the playoffs

 

That and the fact that the ACC is viewed as the weaker conference

 

Also, I KNOW that Baylor an TCU are getting a lot of love, but I just can't see EITHER running the table this year and the Big 12's lack of a conference championship game really hurts them

 

The biggest negative is that Notre Dame looks legit - y'all need for either SC or Furd to beat the irish

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Oregon is still your best shot at making the playoffs

 

That and the fact that the ACC is viewed as the weaker conference

 

Also, I KNOW that Baylor an TCU are getting a lot of love, but I just can't see EITHER running the table this year and the Big 12's lack of a conference championship game really hurts them

 

The biggest negative is that Notre Dame looks legit - y'all need for either SC or Furd to beat the irish

Definitely agree with UO as the playoff hope for the PAC.

 

Haven't paid much attention to the ACC...is it in reference to GT getting whipped by Norte Dame?

 

Don't sleep on Oklahoma.

 

I'm not sure USC and Furd beats the Irish this year but we'll see. Hopefully the Irish doesn't steal the P12's spot in the playoffs.

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Things I think I have learned.

 

1. I'm usually not the guy to hype my own team/players but I think Cal has the best offense in the conference right now.  Cal easily could have dropped 60+ on the Longhorns last week if it weren't for the fumble on the 1, the missed field goals, and the fact that Goff got injured in the 4th quarter.

 

2.  The Cal defense isn't as bad as they were last year but the secondary is still a massive weakness.  Running qbs will continue to destroy Cal but I think the defense will have some good performances against more stationary qbs.  The short yardage defense against Texas was very impressive.

 

3.  This is why you can't trust week 1 -- Stanford is a very good football team and Hogan looks on track to have a very good senior season.  My sleeper WR pick for the Cardinal -- Austin Hooper -- has emerged as the #1 target for Hogan and made some ridiculous catches with guys hanging all over him.  As of right now, Stanford is still my pick to with the North.

 

4. Oregon's defense is who we thought they were.  Another opponent, another game where Oregon gives up way more yards and points than they probably should.  The young secondary needs to come together soon if Oregon wants to win the conference.

 

5. After week 1 I thought that Rosen would be the best true freshman QB in the conference but Jake Browning has outplayed him 2 games in a row, even when stats are adjusted for opposing defenses.  Jake Browning is 36th in QBR while Rosen is 78th.  This despite Rosen having a vastly superior supporting cast. 

 

6. Sticking with UW -- they are a lot better than most people expected them to be.  The defense is still very capable and the offense already looks light years ahead of where they were last season.  Browning is an NFL talent. 

 

7. Utah continues to play the old fashioned way and look good doing it.  Utah is who we thought they would be -- that team who is going to be more physical than you and make you earn every yard you get against them.

 

8. Colorado has a legit running game but the passing game seems to have taken a step back from last year.  Why?

 

9.  Washington State and Oregon State are improving by the day but it looks like they are two worst teams in the conference IMO.

 

10. Another super talented USC team, another early season loss to a team they were favored to beat at home.  USC's finesse style is still vulnerable to the Stanford/Utah smash mouth style.  

 

11.  UCLA played a classic Bruin letdown game but still one thanks to fantastic performance by the running game.  However, they can't play like this and expect to beat any of the good pac 12 teams.  

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Things I think I have learned.

 

1. I'm usually not the guy to hype my own team/players but I think Cal has the best offense in the conference right now.  Cal easily could have dropped 60+ on the Longhorns last week if it weren't for the fumble on the 1, the missed field goals, and the fact that Goff got injured in the 4th quarter.

 

2.  The Cal defense isn't as bad as they were last year but the secondary is still a massive weakness.  Running qbs will continue to destroy Cal but I think the defense will have some good performances against more stationary qbs.  The short yardage defense against Texas was very impressive.

 

3.  This is why you can't trust week 1 -- Stanford is a very good football team and Hogan looks on track to have a very good senior season.  My sleeper WR pick for the Cardinal -- Austin Hooper -- has emerged as the #1 target for Hogan and made some ridiculous catches with guys hanging all over him.  As of right now, Stanford is still my pick to with the North.

 

4. Oregon's defense is who we thought they were.  Another opponent, another game where Oregon gives up way more yards and points than they probably should.  The young secondary needs to come together soon if Oregon wants to win the conference.

 

5. After week 1 I thought that Rosen would be the best true freshman QB in the conference but Jake Browning has outplayed him 2 games in a row, even when stats are adjusted for opposing defenses.  Jake Browning is 36th in QBR while Rosen is 78th.  This despite Rosen having a vastly superior supporting cast. 

 

6. Sticking with UW -- they are a lot better than most people expected them to be.  The defense is still very capable and the offense already looks light years ahead of where they were last season.  Browning is an NFL talent. 

 

7. Utah continues to play the old fashioned way and look good doing it.  Utah is who we thought they would be -- that team who is going to be more physical than you and make you earn every yard you get against them.

 

8. Colorado has a legit running game but the passing game seems to have taken a step back from last year.  Why?

 

9.  Washington State and Oregon State are improving by the day but it looks like they are two worst teams in the conference IMO.

 

10. Another super talented USC team, another early season loss to a team they were favored to beat at home.  USC's finesse style is still vulnerable to the Stanford/Utah smash mouth style.  

 

11.  UCLA played a classic Bruin letdown game but still one thanks to fantastic performance by the running game.  However, they can't play like this and expect to beat any of the good pac 12 teams.  

 

 

**homer alert**  You think we're worse than Colorado??

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Haven't paid much attention to the ACC...is it in reference to GT getting whipped by Norte Dame?

 

 

ACC has been considered the weakest P5 conference for some time - the A She She or the All Cupcake Conference

 

GT losing to ND did not help, but that is far from the biggest reason they are considered a weak link...

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8. Colorado has a legit running game but the passing game seems to have taken a step back from last year.  Why?

 

Sefo Liufau isn't the type of QB that can carry a team on his shoulders.  The more CU runs the ball successfully, the better a passer Liufau is.  Liufau still threw a 65 and 24 yard TD passes that shifted the momentum towards the Buffs so he's still making the plays but not as often as last season.  His only pick of the season came at Hawaii when he was trying to get CU to come from behind to win the ball game.

 

CU's defense is still giving up the yards but at the same time, the defense is creating more turnovers so that's an improvement from last season.  And as long as the CU running game keeps going, the less time the defense is on the field.  Can't be a bad thing plus Liufau doesn't feel the same pressure he felt last season.

 

CU was down 14-0 early in the game and fought to get ahead 17-14, get tied 17-17. get ahead again 24-17, then tied up again before booting the winning FG in overtime.

 

Last year's team couldn't hold a lead against the Rams late and blew it.  This time, the Buffs found a way to win.  Perhaps last year's close losses could translate into wins for the Buffs this year.  We'll see how the season progresses.  Assuming CU wins easily this week against FCS weakling Nicholls State, that 3-1 record in OOC play probably doesn't necessarily give a good insight of how good or bad CU is this season.  Even if the Buffs won in Hawaii, a 4-0 record would haven't meant anything for the Buffs regarding conference play.  I like the idea of CU having to win at least four conference games to go to a bowl game much better than just three wins.  A team with a 3-6 mark in conference play shouldn't be playing in a bowl game and I'm torn about 4-5 so I would prefer the Buffs win at least five conference games if they go bowling, but I'd take four if that needs to be the case.

 

CU's first three Pac-12 games: UO, @ASU, and UA.  Let's say we will know much more about this CU team in about a few weeks.  I have pointed to the UA game as being a winnable game for the Buffs while the games against UO and @ASU will probably result in losses unless the Buffs prove otherwise.

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