Guest mattsarz Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Using Jon Wilner's column, did my own analysis on the Pac-12/FOX possibilities. Comment freely on it. http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2011/02/pac-12-and-fox-time-for-do-over.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bone Crusher Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Matt, You talked about Pac-12 schools signing deals for regional networks...didn't EVERY Pac-12 school give up ALL their media rights to the Pac-12 when they agreed on the revenue split where USC & UCLA would get $2 million dollar payments each if the entire Pac-12 media money amounts to less than $170 million dollars? The Pac-12 can sublicense some of those games to those regional networks if they choose to do so but at the same time, it is pretty much clear that Larry Scott wants to start up a new Pac-12 network. This might ultimately hinder the Pac-12 to get the most they could get out of any TV contract. There are some advantages to that especially if it comes to the online streaming stuff since the people on the east coast can watch the Pac-12 sports anytime they want to for a reasonable price. Suppose we just charged $1 per month to about 10 million subscribers across the country, that's $120 million dollars per year for the Pac-12 for that online stuff and if you add up the $120-150 million that has been rumored, the Pac-12 schools will be splitting revenue evenly in that regard. That is not even counting the Pac-12 TV Network. This won't be the first time that Fox has carried above the air telecasts for college football as I have seen that in the past especially an Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game which occurred after the World Series. TBS has rights to this year's ALCS while Fox or ESPN would have the NLCS after TBS gave up the exclusive rights to televise Atlanta Braves which is now on Peachtree TV. The concern with baseball games on the above the air channels isn't as profound as they used to since a lot of the MLB teams have their stuff on cable TV such as the Rockies being on FSN-RM in Denver. With NBC/Comcast, they can make another stab at the baseball TV contract which could free up some slots for Fox. Plus aren't the MLB playoffs that are on weeknights on ESPN anyway so Fox doesn't lose viewers who likes to watch the Simpsons and stuff like that? Versus did consider getting into televising baseball: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_television_contracts Speaking of that, with Versus becoming NBC Sports and NBC being able to televise baseball games, this clearly should mean that NBC will very likely win the right to televise baseball games eventually. Baseball is clearly the most popular sport in the northeastern United States where the likes of ESPN and NBC reside at. This will free up Fox to show more Pac-12 games starting in 2013 or 2014 on the weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The plan is for the schools to give up those regional rights to the Pac-12 Network, but there are schools who have deals out to 2017-18 (WSU) and longer (Oregon has a 20 year deal with Comcast), so how are those contracts structured? Can they be voided? I would assume so, but I don't know that. www.wsucougars.com/genrel/080609aaa.html http://www.goducks.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=500&ATCLID=1569257 FOX has not on college football expect for the Cotton Bowl and BCS. The Oklahoma-OK State game I think you are speaking of was shown in Chicago because they made a deal to carry it there since CSN Chicago was unable to do so (sorry, don't know if you are located there). Could have also been part of the old Big 12 Syndication package which some FOX station carried. ESPN has no postseason TV rights, so one series airs on TBS, the other is on FOX and FOX has the World Series. TBS has the rights to the division series that ESPN received when ABC bought Fox Family Channel. FOX doesn't televise any of that round. I don't equate Versus's bid for MLB from a few years ago meaning that NBC wants back into MLB. All rights for MLB are currently through 2013. Dick Ebersol is running the entire sports dept compared to Jamie Davis who ran Versus back then. Remember that Ebersol allowed the NBA to walk from NBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jjones163 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Matt very nice article. I will add that Arizona has a deal with IMG until 2023 for exlusive arizona media rights including all radio, signage and the ability to televise gmes not shown elsewhere on the AWSN. They ahve shown two Arizona football games each of the last two years live and between 10-17 basketball games per year. Every aRizona baskteball game the lsst two years has been televised and every football game was on TV most of them nationally available. However under the contract with IMG which also has deals with Oregon, ASU, and four other PaC 12 schools the Confenece broadcast right come first. I do not know how much Oregon and WSU get on the deals they have but arizona makes almost 7 million per year from IMG for the media rights and will make that much throughout the contract until 2023. My guess is the PaC 12 will sign a deal with either Fox (most likely) or COMCAST(in conjunction with IMG), but Fox is the leader right now. I also expect the deal for all of it including the PAC 12 network to be worth at least $180 million per year. I know there are over 20.3 MIllion TV households in the major cities of the PaC 12 and that does not include Sacramento, San Diego and Las Vegas nor does it include the smaller markets in the various states. I tried to find the total number of TV households in the 7 PAC 12 states including Nevada who I ocunt as part of our market. I do not have that fiugre but expect it to be in excess of 40 million households. The demographics supports a mega deal for the PAC 12. There has also been talk of Time WArner not carrying the PaC 12 network and that will not happen because UsC and UCLA fans would boil them alive and they would lose customers by the millions. Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think the Pac-12 will get their money's worth. They are lucky that there is at least a 3rd party in the bidding (Comcast/NBC). If it was just FOX and ESPN, and we know that ESPN may not be able to make a quality bid, the Pac-12 rights could be had by FOX at a much lower price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bone Crusher Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think the Pac-12 will get their money's worth. They are lucky that there is at least a 3rd party in the bidding (Comcast/NBC). If it was just FOX and ESPN, and we know that ESPN may not be able to make a quality bid, the Pac-12 rights could be had by FOX at a much lower price. That is why I think the Pac-12 will do nicely in this case. Now, what does that mean for the Big 12 if it is just between ESPN and NBC Sports if Fox Sports is happy enough with just doing the Pac-12 and perhaps the MWC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That is why I think the Pac-12 will do nicely in this case. Now, what does that mean for the Big 12 if it is just between ESPN and NBC Sports if Fox Sports is happy enough with just doing the Pac-12 and perhaps the MWC? FOX has quoted the Big 12 some solid numbers (they were the party telling the Big 12 that they'd be able to get their rights fee targets), so I suspect they'll be OK. Much like the Pac-12, ESPN doesn't have room for the Big 12 either. And in any rights agreement, Big 12 >> MWC. Much like the new C-USA agreement, if they can get F/X to be part of the deal, that will alleviate the issues with overcrowding on FSN. As for NBC, I don't think they'll be a major player. The Big 12 was not thrilled with Versus as a sublicense partner and requested that agreement to end, though part of the issue centered around the payment of the teams and how FSN was retaining a cut for those games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest utenation Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Solid take Matt.. But first off, I think Wilner is garbage.. Anyone see his AP voting over the years? He was consitently voted as the worst voter on a few poll type sites. Not because of bias but because he really was clueless of the sport of CFB.. I really have no respect for his work at all.. That said, I question anyone saying ESPN won't make a quality bid for the PAC12.. ESPN expressed interest in the whole package including creating a conference channel once news of expansion went wild.. I think ESPN is still looking for quality programming for Saturday afternoons and evenings.. Which conference will take those slots now? The WAC? Hardly, that is a horrible conference with no quality The MWC? Doubt it.. East Coast BCS leagues don't want those slots anyways.. I also think ESPN wants to keep Thursdays and Fridays rolling and will want the PAC as part of the package.. Fox did show their hand with the CCG and may get the contract but I don't think ESPN is out of the game yet.. No news doesn't mean there aren't deals going on.. I also question some of these other contracts some PAC teams have.. The whole goal and purpose of getting a fat TV contract is pooling resources and media rights under one roof.. The PAC has been very specific about doing that. They are trying to get all OOC games taken care of in the first few weeks of the season so the conference and focus on conference games in the meat of the season. There will probably be exceptions but if the cofnerence doesn't pool together, a large contract is out of the question(no matter the network) if you ask me and leadership here has already agreed on giving up certain things like scaled rev to better the whole. So I think they will work something out here again but just a guess. Part of the problem under past PAC leadership is they are spread thin with many differenct eggs in various baskets like ESPN and Fox... Anytime you want more money in any business deal, you have to show them more content and volume for the demand.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Let's take Wilner out of the equation. What is the intrinsic value of the Pac-12 to ESPN? Tied for third with the ACC? But with basketball that needs work and football that would likely fill timeslots that are not as valuable on Saturdays and shoves the conference to more Thursdays & Fridays. To me, ESPN offers the lowball, take-it-or-leave-it offer. If there is a need to be on ESPN, the conference may swallow its pride. For FOX, there is more value to the Pac-12. Flagship conference on cable with Big 12. Wants to provide national coverage over the air instead of being regionalized. Willing to make over its flagship cable network (F/X). Has existing experience in running a conference network. FOX is more likely to come out swinging, make a splash. It wouldn't be the WAC or MWC taking those empty time slots on Saturdays. They'll just lead into SportsCenter. Here's what ESPN/ESPN2 Saturdays looked like last year. We'll exclude Championship Saturday since the Pac-12 would only have the CCG that week. Also exclude the "reverse mirror" games in the 3:30pm slot since those are ABC games repurposed to ESPN in areas where a Big Ten game is on ABC. "Reverse mirror" = bonus coverage ACC - 8 Big 12 - 3 (FSN sublicense) Big East - 4 Big Ten - 20 C-USA - 2 (Gone, over to Fox) Pac-10 - 6 SEC - 19 WAC - 2 Maybe fill the WAC slots. The C-USA slots were bad with one slot on ESPN Classic until Oregon-Tennesse finish. At that point, is it fighting over scraps on ESPN? 61% of those slots filled by two conferences. A third conference who is entering a new rights deal in 2011 (ACC). Five of the six Saturday Pac-10 games started at 10:15pm ET or later. If the conference is OK with Fridays nights, that's one thing. Five slots have been vacated by C-USA, but BYU has filled three of those with their independent contract. As a Big East fan, I don't like Fridays and we play plenty of them. Three schools refuse to play Friday home games (Syracuse, WVU, Pitt) with the exception of Black Friday. Don't know the stance of other Pac-12 schools on Fridays and, if the subject has been broached, its impact of high school football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jjones163 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Matt once again a nice summary. Utenation you indicate that ESPN has been silent but I do not believe that is true they ahve been quite obvious that they are not willing to pay mmore for the PaC 12 than they did for the ACC which is well below what they paid Texas. Yes ESPN wants to do PaC 12 games but for a pittance that is not anywhere near what the conference is worth. Unless that changes the chances of the PaC 12 going with ESPN are less than 10%. We will not see any real deals made until the exclusive negotiating period ends either May 1 or April 1 (May 1 I believe). Then the PaC 12 can negotiate to see who has the best deal for the whole package. I know that Fox is gearing up out west and wants the deal very badily. The unknown is how interested COOMCAST is in the PaC 12, because they have the money to come in big. ESPN does not have the financial capacity to come in very big with all the the other deals they have in place. If I were placing odds on who wins it owuld be 60% Fox, 30% COMCAST(IMG)and 10% ESPN. The PAC 12 is worth a lot more than 12 million per year per team which about what ESPN wants to pay. Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bone Crusher Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 utenation, you talk about the afternoon and evening slots...doesn't there seem to be quite a number of SEC evening games on ESPN as well the Big Ten? The Pac-12 would be no better than #3 on ESPN to those two conferences...maybe even #4 behind the ACC since they are entering their first year of the new contract with ESPN as Matt said. It looks like Fox Sports will have the Pac and Big 12 unless NBC shows interest but at the same time, would NBC show more interest in the Big East due to geography? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 would NBC show more interest in the Big East due to geography? I don't think anybody really wants Big East football unless its low cost and willing to schedule most of its TV appearances on weeknights. Big East basketball is worth more to a cable station and the football is a throw in. I accept that right now. I am interested to see what ESPN offers in a few years b/c the conference will go to the table with ESPN after both the Pac-12 & Big 12, along with possible changes in contract with the MWC and WAC. I am of the opinion that I want to hear what every bidder has to say and not to take anything from ESPN in an exclusive window. I'm not of the opinion that a 24/7 conference network will work for the Big East because the conference has lucrative syndication deal that get games on RSNs like SportsNet NY and MASN. SportsNet NY is owned by Comcast & Time Warner (along with the Mets). Tell me how easy it would be to get a conference network on those systems when they are carrying a channel right now that shows an enormous amount of basketball & football every year. Not likely, IMO. Let me say that in the case of the Big East and MWC, there's a interesting shift because of the makeup of conference membership and what they are willing to do to be on TV. I mentioned before that Pitt, SU and WVU prefer no Friday night football games. Those same schools have decades of decent football behind them, a name brand, and it carries a little weight with TV, so they can afford to put some limits on weeknights (though Pitt and WV have each hosted Wednesday night games recently, another story). That leaves programs who recently came in to the Big East from non-AQ conferences (UofL, USF, Cincy) who regularly were shown on weeknights and two programs who have recently changed their fortunes (Rutgers, UConn) and want the exposure for their program, so they accept weeknight games. With the MWC bringing in four WAC football programs, there's a block of teams who regularly played weeknights on ESPN and prefer that compared to Saturdays on Versus and CBSC. I know that SU has mostly rejected weeknight games with the opener vs. Washington in '07 an exception. The city hosts the NY state fair during the Labor Day weekend and classes start before Labor Day. Parking is at a premium on campus and the Dome is right in the middle of it, so it can get quite messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 WTF do I know. SU scheduled a Friday night game this year in November. Guess its OK as long as it isn't during the state fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Chile_Ute Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 WTF do I know. SU scheduled a Friday night game this year in November. Guess its OK as long as it isn't during the state fair. Who cares.....your insight is invaluable. I've learned an awful lot over the few years reading your posts and hitting your site. SU should hold the game at the state fair.....it's a win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Who cares.....your insight is invaluable. I've learned an awful lot over the few years reading your posts and hitting your site. SU should hold the game at the state fair.....it's a win-win. They may move the Wake Forest game to an alternate date. That game and Marshall-WVU had notations on the schedule release stating the game dates could change. Both games are opening weekend, so sometime during Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest -AC- Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 The PAC needs espn... In negotiations to drive up the final price of the ultimate contract. The flirtation with espn will all be part of the song and dance to get others to drive up their bids for PAC football on their networks. Comcast or FOX if serious about competing with espn, will not be able to afford to let another major conference go to espn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsarz Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The PAC needs espn... In negotiations to drive up the final price of the ultimate contract. The flirtation with espn will all be part of the song and dance to get others to drive up their bids for PAC football on their networks. Comcast or FOX if serious about competing with espn, will not be able to afford to let another major conference go to espn.... Agreed. They need them to be at arm's length. They need them involved to get the bidding to the revenue projections that they desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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