Aztecgolfer

On 6/7/2023 at 10:24 AM, PAC MAN said:

Just stopping by to collect my belongings from this board.  CU is 99.99% gone from this conference and will be confirmed this Friday morning after the public BOR meeting.  Multiple posters across CU forums are now saying that CU is heading to the Big 12 after hearing from credible secondhand sources.

Wilner & Canzano have been reporting on those Comcast overpayments to the P12 and now they are saying it's at least $70M thanks to Larry Scott.  That moron needs to face criminal charges.

And here's this tweet:

Sorry to break it to you, but the Friday meeting was cancelled.

https://regents.cu.edu/events

On 3/13/2023 at 9:55 AM, Orange said:

What we've learned is that pretty much every university in the conference, save for Washington State and Oregon State, has an escape parachute option to some other P5 conference should the SEC/B1G/Big 12 poach the other 8 teams.  That's the bottom line.  Stanford, Cal, Oregon, UW, ASU, UA, CU, Utah, etc., are all fine.  WSU and OSU are fucked, save for a miracle arriving in the form of some wicked TV deal that appeals to the bulk of the other 8 schools.

It's as simple as that.  If the Pac implodes, and WSU and OSU end up looking for homes in the WAC or MWC, those schools will be absolutely decimated, financially.   And the communities with them.  It's a bummer, but it's the truth.   Everything else is just background noise.

I wouldn't say Cal is fine. The B1G won't take them and there is no way they go to the B12. Same can be said of Stanford, though they may be considered for the B1G in the future. They would go independent before going to the B12. Utah might have an issue with the B12, considering the B12 is already in Utah with BYU. For Wash and Ore, they would prefer staying in the PAC over moving to the B12.

On 3/13/2023 at 7:57 AM, Orange said:

Never seen anyone root so hard for a conference to die.  Then where will you post more of your inane, nonsensical screeds?

The PAC isn't going to die. It won't get the number it was looking for this time around because the B12 signed early and likely left money on the table. It is like having a neighbor sell his house below market price and then you trying to sell yours afterwards. As I have read, the B12 deal was more like an extension of their current deal while adding 4 new schools. The PAC is negotiating a completely new deal while also dealing with Amazon and Apple who are new to college athletics. It looks like the PAC wants their deal to terminate in 2029 so that it allows schools the freedom to pursue other opportunities. The shorter the deal, the more it negatively effects the dollar amount.

Washington and Oregon don't have anywhere to go. The B1G isn't calling them right now and also know they can add them whenever they want, if they want. Cal already was told "no way Jose" by the B1G and I think Stanford would prefer staying in an intact PAC as they hate the idea of paying players while the B1G is embracing that concept. There is also talk that neither USC or UCLA want the B1G to add more PAC schools. The "4 corner schools" are not going anywhere unless the PAC implodes. Supporters of the B12 are the ones pushing "the PAC is dead" narrative and it has come to light this may be driven by their consulting agency, Endeavor. All four of the "corner" schools value their association with their academic peers in the PAC; going to the B12 is a big step down in academic prestige. Presidents, not athletic directors, vote on staying, moving and expanding when it comes to conference affiliation. 

It looks like ESPN will still get to air the best games each week and Amazon seems to want to have Friday night games. Whether it is Amazon, Apple or both, the PAC will get more exposure via second tier rights with them than via the PAC Network. I think adding Apple would be a great thing. They are better capitalized than any of the other networks/streamers, have a history of being very innovative, and their TV service has been underperforming. They added MLB and MSL to their lineup so it looks like they want to be a player in the sports market.

On 3/4/2023 at 8:10 PM, Aztecgolfer said:

According to a couple of very reliable posters on the SDSU board, we already know what they are offering and how long it would be before getting a full share.

You miss the point I am making regarding viewers out west as it pertains to ESPN. They broadcast sports and they need product from 7PM PST on. Sure, the PAC should have some games during the day, and they do.

I have not said that the PAC contract is going to be streaming only. ESPN is involved. As for Apple, I just say don't count them out. They are the biggest, best capitalized company in the world. They are known to be innovative. There are people like Bezos and Musk that believed that the future was "now" and got rich off it. Were Utah and TCU "P5" schools when they were in the Mountain West? When you move up you tend to attract, and compensate, better talent. San Diego does have a strong history of football by the way. The modern passing game was invented here in the 60s.

There is nothing the PAC can do to reestablish themselves in LA. That is gone. However, the PAC, via USCLA, do claim the San Diego market as part of their DMA. Bob Thompson wrote on this months ago. Why wouldn't USCLA continue to claim this market when the join the B1G? So, if the PAC wants to lose those 1.1M TV households then don't invite SDSU. Like I said, we would then take the B12 offer. Things changed regarding SDSU when USCLA announced they were leaving.

By the way, the LA market is large but you have a lot of competition. In LA itself, you have two NFL teams, two NBA teams, a MLB team, an NHL team and 2 MSL teams. Then within an hour's drive you can add another MLB and NHL team. You want a following in LA you better win. In football, I do think USC can be successful in the B1G but am much less sure about UCLA. They still have to pay down a lot of debt and are tied to the Rose Bowl through 2042. They have struggled to win in the PAC, the B1G will be much tougher. Last year they were giving away football tickets and managed to half fill the RB on average. Throwout the outlier USC game and that average drops quite a bit. UCLA may do alright in BB but the travel will be hard on them. Traveling to the east is always harder than to the west. USC doesn't care about BB.

I don't believe the PAC is panicking. They are losing two important programs, can't sugar coat that. For a good media deal they need inventory, and replacing those schools protects their  So, did the B12 "panic" by adding 4 non-P5 schools to replace the loss of their 2 biggest brands? The PAC will end up together until at least 2030. UW and UO have nowhere to go and the only ones from the 4 corner schools who seem eager to move are the Arizona fans, though this seems to be egged on by a Zona honk named Jason Scheer. Sorry, the Zona president isn't going to leave the 6 other AAU schools in the PAC for an academically weaker conference. Personally, were Zona to leave they would be more than adequately replaced athletically by SDSU. As for market, San Diego is three times larger than Tucson. But, that just ain't gonna happen. Not at this time.

On 3/4/2023 at 5:39 AM, HLB said:

The Big12 isn't pursuing SD

According to a couple of very reliable posters on the SDSU board, we already know what they are offering and how long it would be before getting a full share.

On 3/3/2023 at 1:39 PM, Quack 12 said:

I'm not sure you can legitimately speak for 80% of the nation, but everyone knows SDSU and SMU don't have the cachet of the LA schools. It's not a secret.

What they do bring is inventory, which is important to media companies. SMU is less popular in the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex than UT, A&M, OU or TCU, but in the PAC they won't often  have to compete directly with those schools for regional viewers, and a 9 p.m. start in Dallas is a solid timeslot. I think they can move the needle - eventually.

I've read that USCLA bring $250M in value to the B1G so it is no secret that SDSU isn't meant as a replacement for either school. However,  the PAC cannot afford to lose SD to the B12 and be locked out of all SoCal. Again, SDSU already adds to the PAC BB program as it has consistently been one of the best programs in the West. Football will take time to increase recruiting. Utah struggled initially when they joined

On 3/3/2023 at 9:39 AM, Orange said:

Oh, I don't understand that?  That's what you gleaned from that?

Or maybe it's that 8 paragraphs from an SEC troll about how the Pac-12 sucks where he repeats the same shit we've all been saying for 6 months isn't terribly interesting?  Go to bed, boomer.

Ah, boomer. Like that's an insult. 

Not sure how I relate to the "SEC" guy but I have actually defended the PAC against a plethora of B12 fanatics. I have said that the conference should be safe from any additional raiding by the B1G until 2030, perhaps even until 2036 when the ACC GOR expires. I'd place Notre Dame, Virginia & UNC above UW and UO when it comes to B1G targets. Clemson would be in that mix as well, but I think they and FSU go to the SEC.

I'm glad you realize that OSU should hope the music doesn't stop because they and Wazzu will be without a chair if that happens.

On 3/3/2023 at 1:25 AM, HLB said:

Nice response.  This tells me you have no intellectual response.

I guess he doesn't understand that if the PAC were to disintegrate, unlikely at this point in time, then Oregon St. and Wazzu end up with no seat at the "P5" table and end up in the MWC.

On 3/3/2023 at 1:20 AM, HLB said:

With 80% of the US populations living east of the Rockies (your numbers and percentages), who is going to be awake for games to be broadcast "after" 7PM PST?  And is it ESPN's job to promote the PAC12 (10)? ESPN is not a non-profit organization and they are looking to make a profit.  To do so, they sell advertising.  And to get the highest dollar for a commercial, they have to have strong viewership.  So why would they broadcast any game, from any conference, with a kickoff time at 11PM EST or later?  And does ESPN have a contract with the PAC12 that requires them to broadcast PAC12 games?

The entity that is causing 80% of the population "not" to see PAC12 games, is the PAC12 Network, which isn't available to almost 80% of the US population.  Many times, I've seen PAC12 games on schedule that I would like to watch, but it's on the PAC12 Network, and not available to me, and the majority of the US population east of the Rockies.

The PAC12 plays games at night, which start at 10PM EST and 9PM CST.  And guess what - we watch them. As for the B12, I watch a lot of their games, every Saturday.  Their games are not restricted by a conference TV network.

CFB is arguably the most watched sport.  CFB fans watch almost any games and are tuned in all day long.  And those PC12 games that begin at 7PM PST are watched.  But when the games start at 8PM and later, people eventually fall asleep.

As for 10 or 12 teams, in order to get the best deal possible, a conference has to have compelling teams 80% of the US population east of the Rockies are going to tune in to watch.  Simply having more teams doesn't make the product better.  If that's the case, add Sacramento State and Cal-Davis to the PAC.  In fact, add 20 teams west of the Rockies.  Truth is, it won't make the conference better.  It will water down the conference with subpar "P5" talent.

The PAC's best years were in the late 90's and early 2000's, when they only had 10 teams.  Stay at 10 and let those ten teams get stronger.  With USC and UCLA moving to the B1G, many west coast recruits, who want to compete in the PAC12, have just become available to the remaining 10 PAC12 teams.

And I'm sorry, but speaking for the 80% of the US population that is east of the Rockies, SDSU and SMU do not make the PAC12 more compelling, and will not move the needle and inspire people to tune in and watch SDSU play Washington, or Oregon State, or Colorado, etc.

Speaking for 80% of the US population, adding teams like SDSU and SMU are desperation moves that will make the PAC12 less attractive, as a P5 conference.  It would be best for the PAC12 to simply go back to being the PAC10.  They can still be a good P5 conference with 10 teams.

I am not saying that east of the Rockies isn't important, just that west of the Rockies cannot be ignored, and there is less competition after 7PM PST. The PAC12 network is going away. Streaming via either Amazon or Apple, the latter seems to be making a bigger push recently, will reach more people than the P12N. Apple is the most successful company in the history of the world. Their TV service is underperforming but they have added MLB and MSL to their ticket. I wouldn't sell them short when it comes to TV, they have more capital than Amazon and ESPN combined to invest into their TV. The PAC was stupid putting the majority of its BB games on the P12N and it has hurt recruiting conference wide. They will remedy that this time around. However, streaming is the future. Still, ESPN will be broadcasting many games.

SAC St and UC Davis are not SDSU athletically and the former isn't there academically. If academics didn't matter, the PAC would be taking a serious look at Fresno St. and Boise St. They aren't. UNLV would be intriguing but their football programs has never been good and their BB program is a shell of its former self. Still a nice market and travel destination and they have been trying to improve their academics.

SDSU received their offer from the PAC in October. The PAC already claims the San Diego Market via USCLA so they need to keep San Diego to stop the bleeding. Also, PAC schools recruit San Diego quite a bit and don't want to lose that. If the PAC deal isn't good enough, then we will accept the offer we have from the B12. Were SDSU go to the B12 it would be really bad for the future of the PAC as the B12 would be planted right in its wheelhouse. Our preference is the PAC for numerous reasons, not the least is the value placed on academics in the PAC. SDSU acceptance rate is more restrictive than many of the remaining PAC schools, R1 rating will be finalized before 2025. Our campus expansion in Mission Valley is geared towards improving our research capabilities. Athletically, SDSU has made nearly one half billion dollars in investments in venues and administrative offices in the past 25 years. SDSU MBB would come in as one of the best in the conference as it stands right now. Football, would be about mid pack initially. Oh, San Diego is a nice travel destination as well, ranking highly among other US cities as a tourist destination.

On 3/2/2023 at 8:08 AM, Orange said:

Uh, one source is from a reputable journalist quoting "direct knowledge", the other is passive voice with no source even mentioned.  DIPSHIT.

Dipshit? Nice. That all you got? Gee, what did I do to crap in your Cheerios? Just pointing out that a lot of people are throwing things out to see if it sticks.

On 3/1/2023 at 7:32 PM, HLB said:

There's a reason why ESPN, Fox Sports, CBS Sports and other networks dedicated to "sports" are not leaping at the chance to outbid Amazon, ION or Apple for the broadcasting rights, etc., of the PAC12.  And that reason is that networks who are sports oriented, recognize that the PAC12 - especially with UCLA and USC leaving - will not bring in the viewership and money that other conferences do.  In short, the return on the investment is limited, and these networks are not going to try and outbid Amazon, ION or Apple.

For Amazon, ION or Apple, going after a TV deal with the PAC12 is like the Jacksonville Jaguars owner going after Urban Meyer without realizing that Urban Meyer is a fraud, and foolishly opening the vault to make him the Jaguars HC.

The PAC12 isn't a fraud, but the conference does not measure up to other P5 conferences, and if any of these three entities secure a TV contract with the PAC12, it will be a strong money grab for the PAC12, but a bad investment for "winning" network.

At the end of the day, none of the schools being mentioned as potential new PAC12 members will measure up to UCLA and USC.  It's going to be a significant drop on multiple levels.

Rather than rush to fill the void being left by UCLA and USC, the conference needs to stand pat, with the 10 schools they have, secure a solid TV deal, and do their best to make those 10 schools as strong and profitable as possible.  The conference can still have a strong league with 10 schools.  Raising those 10 schools to the best they can be, should be the focus.  The leap to go after Amazon, ION or Apple is a desperation move that doesn't need to happen.

20% of the US population lives west of the Rockies. Should they be ignored? Just what does ESPN plan to broadcast after 7PM PST, Corn Hole and celebrity poker tournaments? Tractor pulls? Think of the B12. In every case they are in direct competition for media slots with the SEC, B1G, ACC and Notre Dame. The PAC? Well you got the MWC and WCC (for basketball only). As for sticking at 10, in order to get the best deal possible then you have to have inventory so that is why expansion is on the table. SDSU will be the first choice. The real question is who is second, though SMU looks to be the frontrunner.

On 3/1/2023 at 8:14 AM, Orange said:

Doesn't matter, we already know Pac-12 and ION is not a thing.  READ.

You have two sources in opposition on whether ION is part of the discussion. The question is, which one is right? ANALYZE.

On 2/24/2023 at 9:46 AM, glduck said:

ION? The Onion couldn’t satirize us better than this.

The parent company of ION may be looking at a takeover of Bally Sports. This could be for Tier 3 broadcast rights. I looked, and ION is included with my premium cable package. 

On 2/22/2023 at 3:25 AM, EastCoastFan said:

Apple's user base is dying, Amazon's is growing.  This choice, if it happens and is the bulk of the media product, will be the end of the conference.  Quickly.  Why?  Nobody in Boston or Orlando or Chicago will pay additional for getting on a streaming service just for the Pac-10, but in those areas millions of people alreay are on Amazon, and just have to tune in.  The bulk of the nation will be lost imediately with Apple.

Apple is worth $2.4T. Amazon $996B. They have the money to make investments into their TV services. Here is something posted on the main SDSU board:

Quote

Perhaps a better way is look at those companies' operating cash flow and levered free cash flow.

1. Operating cash flow (OCF) is a measure of the amount of cash generated by a company's normal business operations.
2. Levered free cash flow (LFCF) is the amount of money a company has left remaining after paying all of its financial obligations.

Last 12 month OCF:

• Apple: $109B
• Amazon: $47B
• Disney: $5.25B

Last 12 month LFCF:

 

• Apple: $85B
• Amazon: $8M (yes, $8 million, not billion)
• Disney: $4.86B

Apple is a cash generating machine.  It pays an annual ~$15B in dividends to its shareholders. 
Amazon recent cash flows are somewhat distorted by bad investments and other business operations.  It is usually not this terrible. In 2019/20, it had $20-25b/year in LFCF.
Disney is in another zip code in another country vs. Apple or Amazon

On 2/21/2023 at 8:07 AM, Orange said:

Literally everything you say is stupid, so yeah, probably.  And it's highly unlikely we'll be "conference mates."  And if it does happen, it'll be in 10 years, and you'll probably be in hospice, barred from internet usage.

Ah, you love me. Good to know.

On 2/20/2023 at 9:27 AM, Mano said:

 

As for UCLA, their last Rose Bowl appearance was in 1999 ( 24 years ago ) and their last Rose Bowl win was in 1986 ( 37 years ago ), so they probably figure they might as well get paid, as they didn't fare all that well in the PAC either. The thing the move could screw up is their basketball program, which has actually had success.

20K fans in the seats at the Rose Bowl is a terrible optic, and UCLA is stuck with the Rose Bowl until 2042. This past season UCLA averaged 42K and was actually giving tickets away for free. UCLA was ranked most of the season and still couldn't draw. When they are in the B1G they will be in the bottom half of the standings so I would worry about losing what little fan support they have as Californians don't typically support losing teams.

On 2/11/2023 at 5:34 PM, Mano said:

Seems a lot of the rumors and "leaks" are coming from Big 12 and their supporters. We'll see how everything shakes out in the end.

Yes, most of the rumors of the PAC's impending demise seem to come from B12 supporters. Reminds me of the AAC supporters when Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving the B12. The ACC honks were discussing which B12 teams was worthy of poaching.

The PAC will stay together through, at least, the end of this decade. The only place they have to go is the B12, and the PAC university Presidents do value be associated with 7 AAU schools. The B1G isn't taking any more PAC teams this round, if ever. Actually heard that both Washington and Oregon together don't reach a half-share value in the B1G and, if true, they will never get a serious look from the B1G. I expect all hell to break loose when the ACC's GOR expires in 2034 however. There are many ACC teams that are attractive to both the B1G and the SEC. Anyway, USC is more than content being on an island as they feel they are Notre Dame west. Will have to see how UCLA does but I expect to see them with "buyer's remorse" relatively quickly. They will not fare well in the B1G.

On 2/8/2023 at 9:41 PM, row Z said:

I have seen support for the logic behind adding SMU from a couple of sources, including Wilner and Canzano on their most recent podcast. On paper, the Dallas Fort Worth area is a valuable market for tv, high school football is strong and will result in better conference recruiting in Texas, SMU has a big endowment and is eager to spend on football, they have already made big moves with NIL and the portal, and the school is well ranked academically. But, all of this requires projecting their fit in the conference in the future, because today it just seems like a big step down from Big12 schools we thumbed our nose at (including BYU, OK State, Texas Tech etc.).

It appears inventory is the driving factor for adding SMU. Personally, I see both Tulane and UTSA as potential PAC adds in the future. The latter has great potential.

On 2/3/2023 at 8:02 AM, Orange said:

Oh that's right, you're Aztec******.

You gonna be this way when we become conference mates?

On 11/15/2022 at 8:53 PM, Orange said:

Are you also that @HLB dude?  You both have that distinctive, aggressively boring style.  

No.

On 8/25/2022 at 7:56 PM, dtd said:

MLS isn't an acronym. HTH. 

I stand corrected. But, the Bug guy seemed to make a huge issue over me transposing the L & S letters in MLS. San Diego appears a near lock to get then next MLS expansion team by the way. Will be playing at Snapdragon.

On 11/3/2022 at 3:58 PM, MrBug708 said:

Speaking of missing lots of spelling mistakes, whatever happened to the Aztec****** copycat? He hasn't been back since Arizona beat down SDSU 

This board is a bit slow when it comes to conference realignment. There are better places to get that information. Just checked in today because of Dan Patrick's statement today.

On 7/29/2022 at 7:55 AM, Orange said:

Hey fuckface, you told me you don't give a shit if you misspell they're, their and there.   Need me to quote it for you again?

Riiiight, everyone knows that making tons of little mistakes when you're an engineer in aviation is totally the industry standard.  No wonder Boeing planes fall out of the sky every full moon.

 

Lol, says the guy who has posted 42x in about two weeks regarding conference realignment on a message board for a conference where his team isn't even a member, lolololol

Gee, you keep compounding on stupid.

1. I didn't say I was an aerospace engineer. However, I do own multiple Supplemental Type Certificates ( STC) and I am responsible for doing the engineering drawings which has to be approved by the FAA ACO, sometimes through my DER or DAR.  At certain times I have to make changes through the FAA MIDO. As I said, the government love acronyms.

2. Boeing planes don't "fall out of the sky every full moon." I could tell you why the two 737-MAX crashes happened but that would be well above your ability to comprehend. I am also a pilot, by the way.

3. Not a PAC-12  member yet. I came on here because we are either going to the PAC-? or the BIG-12. I wanted to see what people in the PAC-12 were saying. Thought I would find some intelligent commentary. Unfortunately, I came across an idiot like you. From what  Kliavkoff said today, it appears we will be  in the PAC in the next couple of months. Nice. Then I will post here even more often.

"Fuckface?" Makes me laugh. You are nothing and you come across as that. You ever get laid? 

 Again, you don't appear to be very intelligent, which is why you go straight to insults and profanity. I have to say, I feel a bit sorry for you.

On 7/28/2022 at 10:44 AM, Orange said:

Actually, I think it does.  If you're not worried about communicating correct English words, then I'm not sure why you expect us to take you seriously.

 

And ONLY if I impressed you would I be worried.

MLS or MSL isn't a word, did you actually go to college? Hell, I work in aviation which means i deal with all kinds of acronyms. I get things transposed all the time and don't fret it. My mind is more math and engineering focused. My brother? Hell, he has degrees in English and Literature from UCSB and it a perfectionist when it comes to writing anything. However, he will review things 4-5 times before submitting it. I don't have time for that.

On 7/27/2022 at 7:45 AM, Orange said:

You used "MSL" like 17 times.  It wasn't a transposition, you're just fucking stupid.

It's a transposition, sonny. Gosh, there are times when I will type "there's" when I mean "their" or "they're." It doesn't mean I don't the difference. 

To be honest, I don't find you all that impressive and I'm being nice.