PAC MAN

Not sure if it is correct but CU's Board of Regents has a 5:30 pm-7:00 pm tomorrow evening after those Big 12 meetings earlier in the day. The meeting description is explained as executive session which is the norm when you discuss conference membership stuff. There's time to update the meeting to be about "athletic conference membership" just like before CU announced that move to the Pac-10.

I feel your pain after losing Nebraska as a football rival. At least you can schedule UCLA in basketball. CU recruited California all those years before joining the Pac-12 so the only way the California pipeline ceases is if that state falls into the Pacific Ocean. Sure it won't be the same but you will get that Texas exposure. Dallas-Ft. Worth is set to surpass Chicago as the third largest metro area and Houston isn't far behind the Metroplex. Tucson is right in the middle of those large population centers. The reason why I proposed those conferences was the assumption that the media rights money is probably going to remain at the current level with small growth over the duration of the media rights deal. Why send UA basketball players to Orlando, Morgantown, or Cincinnati when the money isn't going to be that good? And when it comes to staying in the PAC it isn't looking good:

Or many western schools going independent for football and new conferences that make geographical sense for non revenue sports plus basketball. CU, UA, ASU, Utah would go to a conference that includes BYU, Utah State, UNM, AFA, CSU, and Wyoming. The remaining MWC schools hook up with the remaining P12 schools in that manner and maybe go after Gonzaga.

Voting against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State didn’t kill the P12? The OU & UT vote never happened because UT couldn’t have the LHN either.

ASU in the SEC is a possibility. What is nuts is that Colorado will soon share a border with a SEC state in Oklahoma. The Big 12 could even raise ASU's academic prestige to where they could get AAU membership. I bet you don't know how close Texas Tech and Houston are to AAU membership because they are getting state funding more on par with what Texas & aTm are getting. If ASU gets AAU membership, the B1G will swoop in and grab both AZ schools end of discussion. If not, Norman, Austin, College Station, and Fayetteville isn't that far from Tempe. Nebraska has the same inter conference perception issue as ASU within the B1G but they already were the butt of academic jokes in the Big 8/12 anyway so they are used to it. But they were already printing money in the Big 12 and getting zero institutional support in that case so money isn't as big of an issue as you'd find with many schools across the country. Walking away from $100M wouldn't look at bright but Nebraskans are not your typical people. As for WVU, their research tier ranking is now tier 1 just like the other non AAU ACC schools which wasn't the case when they were still in the Big East/AAC. They are a legitimate ACC candidate at this point. The GORs are not as strong as you believe. The AAC schools that just joined the Big 12 got off pretty easy where they will be paying their exit fees over 14 years. CU basically took out a loan over the duration of the Pac-12 media deal to pay off their Big 12 exit fees & Pac-12 entry fees and that might not be even $500,000 a year while they are getting millions of dollars from the P12. Now UNC can give its notice to the ACC and get into the Big Ten tomorrow and then they can finance their ACC exit fees that way. UNC & UVA are wealthy schools and Florida State & Clemson will find the booster money to cover those ACC exit fees. Rivalry games are good sources of income and that is why WVU could come in handy for some ACC schools out there. When CU hosted Nebraska recently, the income earned might have been enough to meet 10% of CU's athletic budget for the year. That alone would have paid off CU's Big 12 exit fees in one swoop. Again, those GORs are not as strong as they seem.

I'd say it was more of an ASU thing because they are non-AAU and both schools didn't have to reach out to the Big 12 directly since they can use go to between people and that was how CU operated about a year to nine months before CU left the Big 12. CU's former AD before Mike Bohn was that go to between person between CU and the Pac-12. You can assume that USC & UCLA did the same thing in that case in the run up to the B1G and that is why it was done stealthily. I stand firm when I say that UA & ASU has been looking to the Big 12 almost since the PAC went to 12 members. The articles are out there unless they are behind paywalls. That California relationship doesn't mean as much as it used to and all four schools looking to the Big 12 has actually increased their Texas engagements for academics & athletics during the duration of the Pac-12. CU had no problems with recruiting CA as a Big 8/12 member and Utah & AZ schools won't have problems recruiting CA if they are no longer part of the PAC. I was very dialed into the moving parts of the Pac-12 & Big 12 until the coronavirus hit. CU's Mountain rivals were my biggest focus and that is where I picked up on the possibility of UA & ASU leaving the Pac-12. I knew this day of USC & UCLA leaving was very likely even back in 2011 because they didn't get the uneven revenue sharing deal they wanted. After seeing the Dodgers and Lakers get huge media deals, it was obvious both schools were leaving money on the table.

That is basically what I am saying but knowing that fanbase, I'd never rule out Nebraska returning to the Big 12 and it would be a 0.01% chance at this point. If the SEC calls, that could be tough for them to turn them down plus the B1G might be happy to gently push them out the door since they are not AAU. And comparing it to Utah going back to the MWC isn't a good comparison since Nebraska's prestige has actually gone down while Utah's has gained significantly along with that shiny new AAU membership card. I'm still giving it the duration of the next Big Ten media rights deal before Nebraska potentially exits the B1G.

Been hearing about WVU to the ACC but never believed that would happen until now. That could happen if the B1G poaches some ACC schools. Both AZ schools have been rumored as Big 12 bound for like about eight years ago and those were mentioned in both the AZ Central and Tucson fish wraps because I actually read them. Nebraska isn’t heading back to the Big 12 without OU & Texas at this point. They would be giving up too much on the academic side if they were to leave the Big Ten. Husker fans might feel differently and seeing CU back in the Big 12 might get them to long for the Big 12. Again they will stay in the B1G but you shouldn’t rule out them returning to the Big 12 next decade.

I have seen those tweets before and I dismissed some of those as being pure fantasy. There are other Twitter handles by more reputable people that are saying the same thing for those four heading to the Big 12 so those rumors appear legit. On the surface both conferences look similar but there is a big difference in how the schools handle their athletics. The P12 is the one that doesn’t care much for athletics and I don’t blame USC & UCLA for wanting out of the P12. The Big 12 locales suck in comparison but the games could be more enjoyable. The rewards could be greater. I know some Utah fans might not be excited about playing BYU again but part of the nirvana of being in the old Big 8 is that everyone hated Nebraska and played each other hard. With the AZ & UT schools along with CU, the KS schools, and Iowa State, I can see a new Big 8 like atmosphere emerge. BYU would play that Nebraska role and that is something I have vouched for the P12 to take BYU in but nope the academic & elite snobbery blinded the P12 brass and now the P12 is on the verge of disbanding. I suspect Stanford and Cal might be that source for that attitude and if that is true, I hope they are out in some type of purgatory where they will be playing in the Big West for years to come and their football teams deal with being independent. I look forward to those Arizona-Kansas clashes on the hardwood. I would give KU the edge but I will be happy if you whip those Jayhawks.

Pac-12 could be done soon...that guy tweeting seems to have some sources and I have watched him over the years. Yes take this with a grain of salt but I seem them as reasonable.

If UO & UW go to the B1G, this could blow up the P12, MWC, and maybe the Big 12. The WAC still has its FBS charter…I have been following FCS realignment too and this is one nugget I saw out there.

I'm still stunned that USC & UCLA is leaving the conference but today is the day after that earth moving announcement so I think it's a good time to look forward. When it comes to CU, I'm seeing three different paths forward for the Buffs. 1. B1G is still in play because USC & UCLA will be racking up the flier miles. I don't think this is the best move for CU of all those different paths because CU has struggled against the likes of Texas & Oklahoma in the Big 12 and then USC & others in the Pac-12. Why should CU bother with going against the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State (Tuck that Tucker tho)? I don't think this would be great for men's basketball and it sounds like Tad Boyle might not have that much years left before he decides to call it a career. But there's that bump in TV money... 2. Big 12 with Utah, UA, and ASU. This would be an easier road in football than the Big Ten but I'm still mindful of CU's struggles on the hardwood just before the Buffs jumped ship. There was one season where both basketball teams finished dead last in the Big 12 along with a poor football season. That was real low man. If you include both AZ & UT schools in addition to the KS schools, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech; that will be a tough road for the Buffs on the men's side. Women's side could see better days though. That is not including the likes of Cinncinnati and Houston. 3. Remain in the PAC. I think this is CU's best option at this point depending on who is added to the PAC. I believe football will be less of a factor when it comes to expansion this time around. I keep telling myself how nice it would be to have some local rivalries with let's say Colorado State. No one will replace Nebraska when it comes to CU's most hated rival but CSU would be enough in that case. As for the PAC in football, I'm going to point to UO & Utah being the new football overlords and maybe ASU after they get off probation later on. The new Denver Broncos owner sounds like he is going to pump in money and build a new stadium so CU football and every Front Range team is going to be overshadowed by the Broncos for a long time. When I started rooting for the Buffs back in 1989, the Buffs had a good presence in Colorado. Right now Colorado is just about 100% Denver Broncos, the Avs just won the Stanley Cup with a good young core, and the Nuggets just gave Jokic a max contract. The Rapids & Rockies very well could be ahead of CU in the Colorado sports pecking order. I think it's time for the PAC to focus more on basketball in this case. San Diego State would be a good start and I'm wondering what has happened to UNLV in basketball. New Mexico knows they are not a football school and they will put their energies into basketball. Colorado State can be good at basketball too. Replacing UCLA & USC in basketball will be a very tall order in that case.

Given my history of pumping CU up, it probably would shock some that I just can't muster some sunshine for the Buffs this season. The expectations of CU fans are at its lowest point since the Chuck Fairbanks days and that's a level I'm not familiar with given I started back in '89. Here's to the new UA-CU rivalry that is a race to the bottom of the PAC.

Not inspiring but hey Minnesota kicked CU’s rears in Boulder last season. I think Dorrell knows he has to win next season or he won’t be back in 2023.

When the CU administration above the AD cares about football again.

Solid hire by the Ducks...hopefully they attached a large buyout to the deal. Who did UW hire again? I think that UCLA-USC next year is going to be big with Riley-Kelly. I have not felt this optimistic about the Pac-12 in quite awhile.

Remember this guy?

Let's see...Eugene/Portland/Nike versus Los Angeles, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin, Houston, New York City, Miami, Atlanta, etc. Those metro areas have more NIL opportunities than what Portland/Nike can offer. The majority of those cities are east of the Rockies where at least 2/3 of the country lives. NIL isn't focused solely on Nike and Uncle Phil isn't going to live forever. That's like saying Arkansas' players should benefit from Walmart HQ being in the area. No one shopping at Walmarts outside of the southeastern US will know who those Arkansas players are. It doesn't mean that GM will always offer Michigan player NIL deals since Ann Arbor isn't far from GM HQ in Detroit. It doesn't mean that national insurance companies and P&G based in Ohio will give Ohio State players exclusive NIL deals nor defense contractors will be doing that to UVA, VT, UMD, and even CU. It doesn't mean that Google and Apple will be exclusive for Stanford & Cal players and the same goes for Amazon, Microsoft, and Starbucks for UW & WSU. Oklahoma City is home to at least two of the largest oil & gas companies in the US and they are not always going to give OU players NIL deals. I could go on and on. Even Nike is not obligated to offer UO athletes NIL deals. It's the local companies such as the used car lots (think Big Red Motors in Norman...remember Rhett Bomar), restaurants, businesses, etc. In those large metropolitan areas, there are lots of businesses that will be vying to get the star player into their ads so the fans who see those players will stop by for a drink and perhaps some good BBQ when their favorite team is on the road or after the home game. Those businesses even from those small college towns with large football stadiums can still reach the alumni in those large metropolitan areas by having their favorite team's star players in those ads especially those targeted online ads. That's another way to recruit athletes in that case. UO could offer Nike but that is limited in scope and many other schools are sponsored by Nike. I'm sure Oregon has some of those businesses that happily supports those Duck athletes but if I'm a recruit that knows for certain that I can end up in the NFL, maybe UO isn't the best solution but USC is. My likeness could end up on a NYC building too. Tell me how UnderArmour has helped Maryland recruit elite athletes. And the CEO of Apple did go to a SEC school and could direct Apple advertising dollars to Auburn athletes but are there better schools aligned for Apple in that case and Apple could target athletes from those schools instead of Auburn...yep that can happen. UO could do well in the NIL arena but again, Nike is not obligated to sponsor UO players only. Same thing for the Jordan brand and North Carolina. Perhaps you are the one who needs to do that thinking through.

If it was just about the coaching money, I don't know if Cristobal makes that move because that UO offer was a real good one. But this NIL thing has made some coaching jobs where the school is located in a large metro area pretty attractive.

OU hiring Venables as the next HC: the last NC winning DC they hired worked out good for them in Stoops. Ole Miss OC is rumored to be the OC under Venables.

And he can be hired on the cheap while Florida pays the difference. I like that.