Card Tricks Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Doesn't seem like all that long ago that Oregon vs. Stanford used to be the premier matchup in the Pac-12 year in and year out. Say what you will about how weak the rest of the league was at that time, comparatively, but there was just something uniquely special about that era. The era that featured once in a generation players like Andrew Luck and LaMichael James. The era that gave us all those heavyweight fights that often decided the conference, if not the National Championship. The era that now feels squarely in the review mirror with the Washington Huskies now dominating the conference on the same level that Oregon and Stanford once did. I actually have no problem with Washington returning to an elite level. Things were getting a bit... stale atop the Pac-12 North with the minimal resistance we were fielding from our division rivals. Washington entering the fray only adds to the intrigue and makes for a stronger Pac-12. What's unfortunate, however, is that their breakthrough year happened to coincide with our programs taking a sizable step back. All that did was make the task of supplanting us all the more effortless. There was once a time where I believed that any non-Oregon/Stanford team would have to truly earn it in order to take back the division (let alone the conference). But Washington basically sleep walked their way through a very down Pac-12 last season and looks to do the same this year. Wazzu and potentially USC may be able to provide some resistance along the way. But I don't expect either one of them to truly challenge the Huskies in the way that our programs would have been able to just a few short years ago. Just imagine the 2016/17 Huskies squaring off against the 2010/12 Ducks or Cardinal. Now that would have been a helluva game! Instead the best we can hope for at this point is to keep it close late in the 4th quarter. My how times have changed. Fast forward to 2017 where Oregon and Stanford enter their matchup with two losses each (a far cry from the undefeated and/or 1-loss teams that would typically clash in past matchups). From a Stanford perspective, let's start with the biggest storyline: K.J. Costello is no longer the starter. Despite acquitting himself very well in Keller Chryst's absence, Shaw's conservative nature does not permit him to continue riding the hot hand of the talented but inexperienced freshman. Fans had been clamoring for Costello to get his shot after the giant turd Chryst laid on the field against SDSU. And even though it took an injury to Chryst to make that happen, he ignited the offense in a way that we hadn't seen thus far this season (the glorified scrimmage against Rice notwithstanding). However, once Chryst cleared concussion protocol last week, Shaw promoted him back to QB1 without a moment's hesitation and only gave Costello about three offensive series in total before turning the offense back over to Chryst the rest of the way. The quarterback "competition", as it turns out, was a competition in name only. Costello could have put up Mariota-esque numbers the last two weeks and I bet you Shaw would have handed the job back over to Chryst just as quickly. That's just who David Shaw is: mind-numbingly conservative and stubborn as a Peruvian pack mule. Now that I'm done with my quarterback rant, let's dive into some of the other matchups that will invariably play a role in Saturday's outcome. Like the fact that Stanford's defense is just not very good this year. 90th in rushing defense. 100th in passing defense. 101st in total defense. Long story short, this isn't the vintage Lance Anderson wrecking crew we've been so accustomed to year in and year out. In our defense, we've faced a handful of elite passers (Wilkins, Rosen, and Darnold) that may have skewed our pass D numbers a bit. But against the run, we couldn't stop a nose bleed if we tried. Throw in the fact that our best defensive lineman and most experienced linebacker will be out for half of this week's contest and I just don't see how we stand any chance of stopping Oregon's rushing attack. Royce Freeman is a beast and from what I've gathered, your O-line has been quite good if not tops in the Pac-12 this season. In any case, I don't think you'll have too much trouble scoring points on us. Our run defense alone will spot you a good 17-21 points. From there, it's up to Burmeister to do the rest and that's where the real key to the game lies. I'll be interested to see how the new look Duck defense holds up against the Bryce Love Show. The kid's speed is so unreal you'd think he was tailor made for Chip Kelly's offense. But thanks to the alternate universe we live in where the Christian McCaffreys and Bryce Loves of the world go to Stanford instead of Oregon, he's become the only real weapon we can count on to produce for us on a weekly basis. A large part of that, however, is due to the woefully predictable offensive game plans that Shaw dials up. Back in the day, we used to thrive off the misdirection of pre-snap shifts and play action passes. But for whatever reason, Shaw has thrown all that by the wayside in favor of lining up exclusively in the jumbo or shotgun formation. Adding insult to injury, not only do we lack creativity but also any sort of killer instinct. While nursing a 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter against ASU and Utah, Shaw chose to run the ball on EVERY. SINGLE. SNAP. 1st down- run the ball. 2nd down- run it some more. 3rd and long? Heck, let's try pounding the rock and see what happens. The result: a smorgasbord of three and outs that allowed Utah to climb back into the game but held off ASU just long enough to secure the victory. I kid you not, Mike Pence could be announced as the new football coach for Oregon State tomorrow and we'd still have the most conservative head coach in all of college football. Why is this significant? Because against a defensive coordinator that held us to 5 points last season, I'm not sure our offense will be able to hang enough on The Ducks to keep up with the absurd day Royce Freeman is going to have against our run defense. Ultimately what I think this game comes down to is quarterback play. Royce Freeman is going to get his yards and so will Bryce Love. The deciding factor will be which team's signal caller plays the cleaner, more efficient game. If Shaw just had the stones to continue rolling with Costello, I'd feel very good about our chances in this one. Instead, he's less than 24 hours from announcing Chryst as the starter (if you don't believe me, feel free to check out the depth chart for the Oregon game). While Chryst played a steady yet unspectacular game against Utah, he's not the kind of game changer that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. No, that level of torture is reserved exclusively for Stanford fans. Having said that, I trust Chryst's experience and game management skills a lot more than I trust Burmeister's. While I fully expect Burmeister to have a much better day than he did against Wazzu's stingy defense, I think he will struggle to push the ball down the field with all the pass catchers Oregon has injured at the moment. Conversely, I think Oregon will be able to pressure Chryst better than Utah was able to last week. But if Chryst can be somewhat efficient and take advantage of the matchup advantage our TEs hold over Oregon's linebackers, I can see us doing just enough to pull off a close a win at home. Therefore, despite of all Stanford's shortcomings, I believe we possesses a slight advantage over Oregon in this matchup. If Herbert were available, I would not feel that way at all. Unfortunately for the Ducks, however, he's not and in his absence I question whether Royce Freeman, Kani Benoit, and co. will be able to carry the team singlehandedly. If I had to make my pick right now, I'd go with something like 34-30 Stanford. But I'll check back later in the week once I get a better feel for this matchup and make my final prediction then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 You talk like this was the Mel Renfro or Jim Plunkett era. Wasn't this just like 3 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Card Tricks Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, Orange said: You talk like this was the Mel Renfro or Jim Plunkett era. Wasn't this just like 3 years ago? Correct. But with Oregon's dramatic fall from grace and Stanford's disappointing performance in 2016, it already feels like eons ago. Don't forget this is a "what have you done for me now" world we now live in. And neither one of these teams has done anything of significance for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 i know 34-30 isn't your final prediction, but i just don't see oregon scoring 30. burmeister might be good in a few years but his performance last week left a lot to be desired. 15/27 for 145 yards isn't the worst line i've ever seen, but if you can tackle in space there really isn't much to fear from our passing game right now. exactly two of burmeister's completions last saturday went beyond 10 yards. everything else was just WR screens. you could tell he had zero confidence throwing downfield. unless he shows dramatic improvement there's just no reason not to stack the box and key in on freeman and benoit and brooks-james. and even if he does hit some targets downfield on saturday, i'd be shocked if he could do so consistently. we're a better team than the one you guys bent over backwards last year in eugene but i do not see a good path to victory in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 plus, it's your turn to win again. we won 2010 and 11, you won 12 and 13, we won 14 and 15, you won last year so it's the second of your back-to-back. we'll try to keep the pattern going next year back in autzen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueDuck Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 If UO can score 30, I think we win. Unfortunately I think we'll be lucky to get 21. Love is a beast, but UO has been great against the run all year. While he'll get yards I see Leavitt stacking the box and forcing the QB to beat UO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 so love is gonna win himself the heisman tonight. 6 carries, already over 100 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueDuck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Love and Freeman both on pace for 500 yds each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 game is delayed because a rabbit is on the field. stanford is a weird place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 i don't mind that stanford is never called for holding, but for fuck's sake you don't need to make up for it by doubling up the holding calls on the other team. and then johnson gets called for an illegal block 30 yards from the action. if you're LOOKING to call penalties, i'm sure stanford is probably committing *some*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 a disappointing step back by the defense this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 1 hour ago, glduck said: a disappointing step back by the defense this week. i have to walk this back. stanford scored a quick 21, but the defense has only given up 7 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. bad start, nice adjustments. our offense is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBug708 Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Shaw also goes conservative int he second half when up comfortably The UCLA-Oregon game should be...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 as opposed to his devil may care, free ballin' first half offense? we are averaging 8.5 points a game in the burmeister era. ucla may have issues, but rosen is good for 30 points a game. i do not know how mathematically we will be able to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 damn i was hoping to get the ball back there so alie could have a crack at it -- he looked vaguely more competent than burmeister -- but shaw felt it necessary to go for it on 4th down with under 4 minutes to go and up 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glduck Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 well that was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Card Tricks Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 Who would have thought that Stanford could find themselves at the top of the Pac-12 North standings after just one weekend? Our pole positioning is a bit of a sham right now seeing as how we have yet to beat any teams with less than two losses. However, this team certainly appears to be improving like many David Shaw-coached teams tend to do over the course of the season. I believed before the season started that we had a lot of upside based on the talent and experience returning. Which is why I was so shocked to see us perform so poorly against USC and SDSU. I still believe this team has some very significant weaknesses (i.e.- poor run D, underwhelming QB play). But after last night, it's pretty clear that the division and the conference as a whole is much more winnable that it looked just a week ago. Bryce Love left the game after just one half with an injury but still managed to pile up 142 rushing yards. It's disappointing to think how many he could have gotten had he stayed healthy. My guess is at least 200. While he still leads the nation in rushing yards by a decided margin, he'll need all the help he can get winning over Heisman voters (many of whom, have already decided Saquon Barkley is their guy). The bye week comes at a good time in the sense that Love won't miss any opportunities to keep racking up yards and should be good to go against Oregon State. But it's going to take some monster games down the stretch against the likes of Wazzu, Washington, and Notre Dame if he has any chance of doing what Gerhart, Luck (x2), and McCaffrey could not. One last observation from yesterday's game: Keller Chryst looked GOOD. The stat line may not impress anyone (181 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) but he delivered the ball with confidence and accuracy all night and converted multiple 3rd and longs. This was the best Chryst has looked all year and that includes the Rice game. A part of me is inclined to write off this performance because Oregon is struggling so badly right now. But their pass defense came into the game ranked in the Top 20 with the #1 overall sack total. Stunningly, despite losing our top two left tackles to injury, we surrendered zero sacks for the 4th straight game. With Chryst delivering the ball with poise and confidence (finally!), this team is starting to bear less and less resemblance to the one that went down against the Trojans and the Aztecs. Keep this up and they may just find themselves in the thick of the Pac-12 race by season's end. I still believe Washington is the team to beat but I'm much more optimistic about our chances than I was a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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