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Final Year of SC89's Simple Ratings


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On 9/17/2023 at 7:55 PM, utenation said:

The good thing is, AP Voters believe. 
But let the gauntlet of playing in a conference with 8 ranked teams begin. 

Absolutely.  Conference play will be brutal.  I hope the pac gets the credit for its dominance.  If things break right we could get two teams in.

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On 9/17/2023 at 8:01 PM, utenation said:

We have 7 home games this year. Utah is pretty much unbeatable in SLC. 

Assuming rising returns I likely agree.  There just are not a ton of off weeks in the conference, and there will be bad games.  I really hope we don’t completely cannibalize ourselves and everyone has a few losses. 

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On 9/17/2023 at 8:08 PM, Buff_Fan said:

Assuming rising returns I likely agree.  There just are not a ton of off weeks in the conference, and there will be bad games.  I really hope we don’t completely cannibalize ourselves and everyone has a few losses. 

What I said about our home record is true. Look it up.  But yeah, as I’ve mentioned many times, no Cam, no shot. 

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On 9/17/2023 at 8:17 PM, utenation said:

What I said about our home record is true. Look it up.  But yeah, as I’ve mentioned many times, no Cam, no shot. 

Oh I believe you, I just think this conference is better than it’s ever been.  Of teams slip up at all they will lose.  What a world where the conference is dead and also the best conference in the sport.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

WEEK 4

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    Utah        1.31    (2)
T2    USC        1.25    (T3)
T2    Washington    1.25    (T3)

    Fresno State    1.19    

T4    Oregon        1.19    (T5)
T4    WSU        1.19    (T5)
6    Colorado    0.88    (1)
T7    Arizona        0.56    (T9)
T7    UCLA        0.56    (T7)
9    Oregon St    0.44    (T7)
10    Cal        0.06    (T9)
11    ASU        -0.56    (11)
12    Stanford    -0.75    (12)

 

add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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MUST-win this weekend for the Beavs to remain at all relevant in the championship race.  If they lose this one, it'll be bottom-tier bowl, forgettable season, and J Smith will lose recruits and likely leave in the offseason for some program that won't be G5.

Hard to remember the last time a Beaver game had this big of implications.

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On 9/29/2023 at 8:55 AM, Orange said:

MUST-win this weekend for the Beavs to remain at all relevant in the championship race.  If they lose this one, it'll be bottom-tier bowl, forgettable season, and J Smith will lose recruits and likely leave in the offseason for some program that won't be G5.

Hard to remember the last time a Beaver game had this big of implications.

We are coming for your castles, women and land tonight.

 

Longshanks Braveheart GIF - Longshanks Braveheart Death ...

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WEEK 5

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)
1    WSU        1.44    (T4)
T2    USC        1.30    (T2)
T2    Washington    1.30    (T2)
4      Oregon        1.25    (T4)

    Fresno State    1.15    

5     Utah        0.95    (1)
6     Oregon St    0.75    (9)
7     Colorado    0.60    (6)
8     UCLA        0.44    (T7)
T9    Arizona        0.35    (T7)
T9    Cal        0.35    (10)
11    ASU        -0.65    (11)
12    Stanford    -0.70    (12)

 

add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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WEEK 6

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)

1    USC                 1.33    (T2)
2    Washington    1.30    (T2)
3    Oregon           1.25    (4)
T4    Utah              0.95    (5)
T4    WSU              0.95    (1)
6    Oregon St       0.79    (6)
7    Colorado        0.75    (7)
8    UCLA               0.65    (8)

    Fresno State       0.63    

T9    Arizona        0.21    (T9)
T9    Cal                0.21    (T9)
11    Stanford     -0.70    (12)
12    ASU             -0.71    (11)


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

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  • 2 weeks later...

Week 7


Position, Team, Score (Previous)
1    Washington       1.50    (2)
2    USC                   1.07    (1)
T3    Utah                1.04    (T4)
T3    Oregon St      1.04    (6)

    Air Force    0.96    

5    Oregon            0.96    (3)

    Fresno State    0.68    

6    WSU               0.63    (T4)
7    UCLA             0.54    (8)
8    Colorado      0.43    (7)
9    Arizona         0.32    (T9)
10    Cal               0.11    (T9)
11    Stanford    -0.42    (11)
12    ASU            -0.79    (12)


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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WEEK 8

The thing that is starting to stick out to me is how thoroughly uninteresting our OOC schedule was this year.  I believe that Notre Dame is the only OOC opponent that is sniffing the Top 20.  OTOH, It's undoubtedly why we have six ranked teams.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)
1      Washington    1.50    (1)
2      Utah                 1.11    (3)
T3    Oregon          1.04    (5)
T3    Oregon St      1.04    (T3)

    Air Force            0.96    

5    USC                  0.88    (2)

     UNLV                  0.82    

     Fresno State      0.68    

6    UCLA                0.68    (7)
7    WSU                  0.46    (6)
8    Colorado            0.43    (8)
9    Arizona              0.32    (9)
10    Cal                   0.11    (10)
11    Stanford         -0.50    (11)
12    ASU                -0.75    (12)


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

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WEEK 9

 

Position, Team, Score (Previous)
1    Washington    1.50    (1)
2    Oregon        1.09    (T3)

    Air Force    0.97    

3    USC        0.89    (5)
4    Utah        0.84    (2)

    Fresno State    0.72    

T5    Oregon St    0.66    (T3)
T5    UCLA        0.66    (6)
7    Arizona        0.47    (9)
8    Colorado    0.25    (8)
9    WSU        0.16    (7)
10    Cal        -0.16    (10)
11    Stanford    -0.50    (11)
12    ASU        -0.53    (12)

 

add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Week 10


Position, Team, Score (Previous)
1    Washington    1.50    (1)
2    Oregon          1.25     (2)
3    Utah               0.97     (4)
4    Oregon St      0.86     (T5)
5    USC                0.80     (3)

    Fresno State      0.75    

6    Arizona        0.69      (7)

    Air Force          0.64    

7    UCLA            0.58    (T5)

    UNLV               0.53

8    Colorado      0.17     (8)
9    WSU             0.14      (9)
10    Cal             -0.08     (10)
11    Stanford    -0.28     (11)
12    ASU        -0.53        (12)


add .75 point for each win vs. unranked FCS opponent
add 1 point for each win vs. unranked midmajor (non-P5) opponent
add 1.5 points for each win vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
add 2.5 points for each win vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent

subtract .5 points for each loss vs. Top 15 (AP) opponent
subtract 1 point for each loss vs. an P5 team or FCS/midmajor opponent ranked 16-25 (AP)
subtract 2 points for each loss  vs. unranked midmajor opponent
subtract 2.5 points for each loss vs. unranked FCS opponent

Divide by number of games played
AP Ranking is from today, not when the game was played

 

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