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Picking Up The Pieces


PAC MAN
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I'm still stunned that USC & UCLA is leaving the conference but today is the day after that earth moving announcement so I think it's a good time to look forward.

When it comes to CU, I'm seeing three different paths forward for the Buffs.

1. B1G is still in play because USC & UCLA will be racking up the flier miles.  I don't think this is the best move for CU of all those different paths because CU has struggled against the likes of Texas & Oklahoma in the Big 12 and then USC & others in the Pac-12.  Why should CU bother with going against the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State (Tuck that Tucker tho)?  I don't think this would be great for men's basketball and it sounds like Tad Boyle might not have that much years left before he decides to call it a career.  But there's that bump in TV money...

2. Big 12 with Utah, UA, and ASU.  This would be an easier road in football than the Big Ten but I'm still mindful of CU's struggles on the hardwood just before the Buffs jumped ship.  There was one season where both basketball teams finished dead last in the Big 12 along with a poor football season.  That was real low man.  If you include both AZ & UT schools in addition to the KS schools, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech; that will be a tough road for the Buffs on the men's side.  Women's side could see better days though.  That is not including the likes of Cinncinnati and Houston.

3. Remain in the PAC.  I think this is CU's best option at this point depending on who is added to the PAC.  I believe football will be less of a factor when it comes to expansion this time around.  I keep telling myself how nice it would be to have some local rivalries with let's say Colorado State.  No one will replace Nebraska when it comes to CU's most hated rival but CSU would be enough in that case.

As for the PAC in football, I'm going to point to UO & Utah being the new football overlords and maybe ASU after they get off probation later on.  The new Denver Broncos owner sounds like he is going to pump in money and build a new stadium so CU football and every Front Range team is going to be overshadowed by the Broncos for a long time.  When I started rooting for the Buffs back in 1989, the Buffs had a good presence in Colorado.  Right now Colorado is just about 100% Denver Broncos, the Avs just won the Stanley Cup with a good young core, and the Nuggets just gave Jokic a max contract.  The Rapids & Rockies very well could be ahead of CU in the Colorado sports pecking order.

I think it's time for the PAC to focus more on basketball in this case.  San Diego State would be a good start and I'm wondering what has happened to UNLV in basketball.  New Mexico knows they are not a football school and they will put their energies into basketball.  Colorado State can be good at basketball too.  Replacing UCLA & USC in basketball will be a very tall order in that case.

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If UO & UW go to the B1G, this could blow up the P12, MWC, and maybe the Big 12.

The WAC still has its FBS charter…I have been following FCS realignment too and this is one nugget I saw out there.

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On 7/1/2022 at 7:05 PM, RogueDuck said:

Once ND decides what they are doing, UO and UW will be out also. Any remaining teams will have a hard time convincing anyone the Pac or Big 12 is a power 5 conference.  I’m assuming it will be a power 3 when the dust settles. 
 

https://twitter.com/TimBrando/status/1542983449245585409?s=20&t=U5ooqrvxdvZd-A-fnfCh2g

Power 2.  ACC is going to fall just as the Big 12 & Pac-12 have.  When you have  significant revenue disparity between the B1G/SEC and everyone else then its only a matter of time before schools that do have options find a way out.

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The ACC will more than likely take 10 years to fall apart.  The members have to pay a ton to get out of their contract.  And since Fox and ESPN are driving this super conference, I don’t see ESPN pushing for the sec to take any ACC teams until the ACC contract is up with ESPN.  

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On 7/2/2022 at 7:33 AM, RogueDuck said:

The ACC will more than likely take 10 years to fall apart.  The members have to pay a ton to get out of their contract.  And since Fox and ESPN are driving this super conference, I don’t see ESPN pushing for the sec to take any ACC teams until the ACC contract is up with ESPN.  

It might take 10 years or the courts can take a blow torch to the NCAA model in Johnson v NCAA by ruling that student athletes are university employees which would then lead to direct payment between school and athlete.  That case would void any existing media rights deal and grant of rights at which point ESPN would move to protect their preferred properties in the ACC over to the SEC to avoid losing or having to share them with Fox.

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I hope that doesn’t happen.  If it does, that will basically kill any sport that doesn’t make money.  Not many schools are interested in employees who lose money.  Title 9 will be wiped out.  

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As a BIG Ten football fan from Ohio, who was stationed at Ft. Ord, California with the U.S. Army in the early 80’s, I thoroughly enjoyed watching PAC 12 football Games.  I can truly say, “That I don’t want to see the PAC 12 Conference fold.  I loved watching the Stanford and Cal games when I was stationed at Ft. Ord, California.  As a kid I loved watching those Rose Bowl games between USC and Ohio State during the Woody Hayes and John McKay era.  This move makes makes me ill as a ‘College Football fan’ to see my BIG TEN stab a fellow Conference in the back that has been a (Rose Bowl) partner throughout the many decades of my life span.  Money has ruined College Football!  If I was the PAC 12 Commissioner, I would petition as a Conference to the California State Legislature and the California Governors Office to keep UCLA in the PAC 12, since the Bruins are a California State University funded by California State Taxpayers.  If USC as a private university still wants to go to the BIG TEN, then I would say as a Conference to the Trojans, “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”  As a (11 member PAC 12 Conference), I would counter the SEC and BIG TEN and proceed with lightening speed to build a PAC-24 member Western Super-Conference with the following teams; Invite the present MWC Teams; San Diego State, Boise State and either Colorado State or Fresno State.  Invite presently, Independent BYU.  Drop the Religious concern.  The Cougars bring a large fan base and have a National following.  Invite (Nebraska) from the BIG TEN.  Invite the following (BIG 12 Conference Teams), Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor.  Invite present AAC member, Houston or SEC member, Missouri or BIG TEN member, Minnesota.  If FOX Sports will not give the PAC 12 Conference a decent media-deal, then seek out one of the other sports networks, such as… (NBC Sports) or (CBS Sports).  Stay together PAC 12!  Call the SEC and BIG TEN Conferences bluff.

 

Respectfully

A College Football Fan

 

 

 

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Pac-12 could be done soon...that guy tweeting seems to have some sources and I have watched him over the years.  Yes take this with a grain of salt but I seem them as reasonable.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 1:24 PM, RogueDuck said:

I hope that doesn’t happen.  If it does, that will basically kill any sport that doesn’t make money.  Not many schools are interested in employees who lose money.  Title 9 will be wiped out.  

Unfortunately that shipped has already sailed and we are well on course for a new system.  Currently they are just looking at football but once they run out of ways to increase revenue from football moves they will turn their sights to basketball and begin to wrest control of the tournament from the NCAA.

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On 7/2/2022 at 2:54 PM, PAC MAN said:

Pac-12 could be done soon...that guy tweeting seems to have some sources and I have watched him over the years.  Yes take this with a grain of salt but I seem them as reasonable.

 

I wouldn't bother taking anything MHver says seriously, the guy is a realignment troll junkie and has been since at least the days of the initial Pac16 proposal.  He'll say a bunch of stuff then it doesn't happen and he disappears for a few years until the next realignment wave happens and he starts back up again.

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On 7/2/2022 at 3:02 PM, clpp01 said:

I wouldn't bother taking anything MHver says seriously, the guy is a realignment troll junkie and has been since at least the days of the initial Pac16 proposal.  He'll say a bunch of stuff then it doesn't happen and he disappears for a few years until the next realignment wave happens and he starts back up again.

He tweeted this back in April.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 4:02 PM, clpp01 said:

I wouldn't bother taking anything MHver says seriously, the guy is a realignment troll junkie and has been since at least the days of the initial Pac16 proposal.  He'll say a bunch of stuff then it doesn't happen and he disappears for a few years until the next realignment wave happens and he starts back up again.

I have seen those tweets before and I dismissed some of those as being pure fantasy.  There are other Twitter handles by more reputable people that are saying the same thing for those four heading to the Big 12 so those rumors appear legit.

On the surface both conferences look similar but there is a big difference in how the schools handle their athletics.  The P12 is the one that doesn’t care much for athletics and I don’t blame USC & UCLA for wanting out of the P12.

The Big 12 locales suck in comparison  but the games could be more enjoyable.  The rewards could be greater.

I know some Utah fans might not be excited about playing BYU again but part of the nirvana of being in the old Big 8 is that everyone hated Nebraska and played each other hard.  With the AZ & UT schools along with CU, the KS schools, and Iowa State, I can see a new Big 8 like atmosphere emerge.  BYU would play that Nebraska role and that is something I have vouched for the P12 to take BYU in but nope the academic & elite snobbery blinded the P12 brass and now the P12 is on the verge of disbanding.  I suspect Stanford and Cal might be that source for that attitude and if that is true, I hope they are out in some type of purgatory where they will be playing in the Big West for years to come and their football teams deal with being independent.

I look forward to those Arizona-Kansas clashes on the hardwood.  I would give KU the edge but I will be happy if you whip those Jayhawks.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 3:25 PM, azgreg said:

He tweeted this back in April.

 

He takes information from others in this case from Flugaur and spins it as his own then weaves it into this larger story that always devolves into the usual plot points.

- WVU  has the votes to get into the ACC

-Arizona & ASU have been in contact with the B12 for months and ready to move

- Nebraska trying to get back into the B12.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 5:28 PM, clpp01 said:

He takes information from others in this case from Flugaur and spins it as his own then weaves it into this larger story that always devolves into the usual plot points.

- WVU  has the votes to get into the ACC

-Arizona & ASU have been in contact with the B12 for months and ready to move

- Nebraska trying to get back into the B12.

 


Been hearing about WVU to the ACC but never believed that would happen until now.  That could happen if the B1G poaches some ACC schools.

Both AZ schools have been rumored as Big 12 bound for like about eight years ago and those were mentioned in both the AZ Central and Tucson fish wraps because I actually read them.

Nebraska isn’t heading back to the Big 12 without OU & Texas at this point.  They would be giving up too much on the academic side if they were to leave the Big Ten.  Husker fans might feel differently and seeing CU back in the Big 12 might get them to long for the Big 12.  Again they will stay in the B1G but you shouldn’t rule out them returning to the Big 12 next decade.

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On 7/2/2022 at 8:28 PM, RogueDuck said:

I just don’t see Nebraska leaving for the big 12.  At this point that is like Utah going back to the MWC.

That is basically what I am saying but knowing that fanbase, I'd never rule out Nebraska returning to the Big 12 and it would be a 0.01% chance at this point.  If the SEC calls, that could be tough for them to turn them down plus the B1G might be happy to gently push them out the door since they are not AAU.

And comparing it to Utah going back to the MWC isn't a good comparison since Nebraska's prestige has actually gone down while Utah's has gained significantly along with that shiny new AAU membership card.

I'm still giving it the duration of the next Big Ten media rights deal before Nebraska potentially exits the B1G.

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On 7/2/2022 at 6:48 PM, PAC MAN said:


Been hearing about WVU to the ACC but never believed that would happen until now.  That could happen if the B1G poaches some ACC schools.

Both AZ schools have been rumored as Big 12 bound for like about eight years ago and those were mentioned in both the AZ Central and Tucson fish wraps because I actually read them.

Nebraska isn’t heading back to the Big 12 without OU & Texas at this point.  They would be giving up too much on the academic side if they were to leave the Big Ten.  Husker fans might feel differently and seeing CU back in the Big 12 might get them to long for the Big 12.  Again they will stay in the B1G but you shouldn’t rule out them returning to the Big 12 next decade.

WVU is to the ACC what BYU is to the Pac12 a school that fits geographically but one the conference has absolutely no interest in associating with.

The Arizona schools had never reached out to the Big 12 about joining them.  They would never have voluntarily separated themselves from California 

No one is or was leaving the Big Ten and its paydays for the Big 12.  Not before OU & Texas left and certainly not after.

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If there are any credible moves here, it would be  West Virginia to the ACC if somehow schools like Virginia, North Carolina, and Clemson escaped the conference GOR and left, and teams like Pitt/Cuse/BC/VaTech pushed for their inclusion.  As for Nebraska, give up $100 million a year payout?  C'mon.  The only place they'd ever go would be to join the Sooners in the SEC where the money is similar, but it's hard to believe they'd ever be invited unless the TV people saw it as a winner.  As for the Arizona schools, they're pobably hoping for a 24-team SEC and a 24-team B1G, in which case they'd hope to be a natural extension of the SEC west from Austin and College Station.

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On 7/2/2022 at 9:16 PM, clpp01 said:

The Arizona schools had never reached out to the Big 12 about joining them.  They would never have voluntarily separated themselves from California.

I'd say it was more of an ASU thing because they are non-AAU and both schools didn't have to reach out to the Big 12 directly since they can use go to between people and that was how CU operated about a year to nine months before CU left the Big 12.   CU's former AD before Mike Bohn was that go to between person between CU and the Pac-12.  You can assume that USC & UCLA did the same thing in that case in the run up to the B1G and that is why it was done stealthily.

I stand firm when I say that UA & ASU has been looking to the Big 12 almost since the PAC went to 12 members.  The articles are out there unless they are behind paywalls.  That California relationship doesn't mean as much as it used to and all four schools looking to the Big 12 has actually increased their Texas engagements for academics & athletics during the duration of the Pac-12.  CU had no problems with recruiting CA as a Big 8/12 member and Utah & AZ schools won't have problems recruiting CA if they are no longer part of the PAC.

I was very dialed into the moving parts of the Pac-12 & Big 12 until the coronavirus hit.  CU's Mountain rivals were my biggest focus and that is where I picked up on the possibility of UA & ASU leaving the Pac-12.  I knew this day of USC & UCLA leaving was very likely even back in 2011 because they didn't get the uneven revenue sharing deal they wanted.  After seeing the Dodgers and Lakers get huge media deals, it was obvious both schools were leaving money on the table.

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