Colorado @ Oregon

[MussMan]

On 10/9/2019 at 7:50 AM, HLB said:

Put them in the B1G, or SEC and they would probably be 2-3 (at this point) and would finish with 4-5 losses, at best.

He has not been impressive, as indicated by the fact that his name is nowhere to be found on the list for Heisman contenders.  And Oregon will probably lose again, because they struggle to score points on offense - something that I thought they would be able to do a lot of.

 

Agreed. Oregon wouldn't be able to compete with the mighty SEC with powerhouses like Arkansas (lost to San Jose State), Tennessee (lost to Georgia State), Missouri (lost to Wyoming), and Mississippi (lost to Memphis).

And if you're keeping track, the Pac-12 has the best record of any P5 conference against other P5s so far this year. 3-0 against the B1G as well.

https://topdan.com/college-football-conference-records/2019.html

[Mano]

Oregon should win comfortably.

That being said, just heard an interesting stat:

Ranked Pac 12 teams are 1-6 vs. unranked Pac 12 teams this year.

[PAC MAN]

Interesting stat mentioned by Mano.

The Buffs have been consistent in its scoring this season on offense and if the Buffs can take the ball away like they have done quite a few times this season, an upset win in Eugene is possible.  Problem is the Buffs pass defense is just bad...Herbert could have a career night tomorrow night if Mustfa Johnson and Jalen Sami who are two injuried DL starters are still out.

The Ducks D has done good with scoring defense so far this season and I'm pretty confident CU will score more than what UO has allowed all season long.  I didn't really notice where the Duck fans have been saying their O was bad until I saw their games against Auburn, Stanford, and Cal.  I think UO will also go past the 30 point mark.

I think this might be an one or two possession game tops.  I think the Ducks still win because unlike ASU's freshman QB, Herbert is a senior QB.

[dtd]

20 hours ago, HLB said:

He'll be in the NFL.  For a while.

If North Dakota State had played Oregon's last four opponents, their defense would be #1 in the nation in S&P, too.

S&P adjusts for opponents' defense. It is a down and distance situational efficiency success rate measure. It is not an end all be all, which to most people doesn't need to be said, but knowing you I'm sure you'd come back with some logical fallacy regarding stats. Still, you should educate yourself further before commenting. 

[Quack 12]

[Orange]

1 hour ago, Jalapeno said:

Interesting stat mentioned by Mano.

The Buffs have been consistent in its scoring this season on offense and if the Buffs can take the ball away like they have done quite a few times this season, an upset win in Eugene is possible.  Problem is the Buffs pass defense is just bad...Herbert could have a career night tomorrow night if Mustfa Johnson and Jalen Sami who are two injuried DL starters are still out.

The Ducks D has done good with scoring defense so far this season and I'm pretty confident CU will score more than what UO has allowed all season long.  I didn't really notice where the Duck fans have been saying their O was bad until I saw their games against Auburn, Stanford, and Cal.  I think UO will also go past the 30 point mark.

I think this might be an one or two possession game tops.  I think the Ducks still win because unlike ASU's freshman QB, Herbert is a senior QB.

[RogueDuck]

2 hours ago, Mano said:

Oregon should win comfortably.

That being said, just heard an interesting stat:

Ranked Pac 12 teams are 1-6 vs. unranked Pac 12 teams this year.

I don't think Cal or Stanford were ranked when we played them. 

[Orange]

18 minutes ago, RogueDuck said:

I don't think Cal or Stanford were ranked when we played them. 

Was USC unranked when Utah beat them?

[MussMan]

On 10/9/2019 at 7:50 AM, HLB said:

Oregon is 4-1 because they play played a G5 and FCS OOC opponent, for two wins, and they have beaten a bad Stanford team, and an injury-riddled Cal team, in the PAC12.  And against PW5 opponents, they're only averaging 19 points/per game - with a "Heisman, 1st Round QB".  And that's against some bad defenses (Yes, I have been watching PAC12 games) and an Auburn defense that starts two true freshman LB's and two true freshman DB's who were playing their first ever CFB game.

Auburn was lucky to beat Oregon. I mean, Oregon started 11 guys on defense who were playing in their FIRST CFB game of the season. Not only that, but they started 3 FRESHMEN! These guys were playing in their first CFB games ever! With all of those advantages, they still needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat these guys.

Pretty much every team in the country plays freshmen in significant minutes. 

[MussMan]

8 minutes ago, Orange said:

Was USC unranked when Utah beat them?

Yup. They were coming off of a loss to BYU.

[HLB]

21 hours ago, RogueDuck said:

Bullshit.  Your crappy Ole Miss team made Cal O look competent.   And don't say it was because of Garbers.  He looked like a below average QB in every game except vs the SEC.

In case you weren't paying attention (and you apparently were not), after Cal defeated UW in Seattle, I questioned why Cal was a "pick'em" with Ole Miss, a team that I have more than once stated as one of the three worst teams in the SEC.

And Ole Miss is not my team.

That being said:  Nevada, Montana, Stanford (who was blown out by UCF in a game where UCF probably could have put up 70 points, had they not called off the dogs), and a Cal team that was riddled with injuries - predominately on defense.  And Garbers is the best QB that gives Cal a chance to win.

However - as you point out - Cal's "O" isn't very competent.  So I stand by my statement that NDSU could have a #1 "D" rating, with the four offenses they faced in Nevada, Montana, Stanford and Cal.

Your comment about Cal's offense only supports my statement.

 

[Orange]

17 minutes ago, HLB said:

In case you weren't paying attention (and you apparently were not), after Cal defeated UW in Seattle, I questioned why Cal was a "pick'em" with Ole Miss, a team that I have more than once stated as one of the three worst teams in the SEC.

And Ole Miss is not my team.

That being said:  Nevada, Montana, Stanford (who was blown out by UCF in a game where UCF probably could have put up 70 points, had they not called off the dogs), and a Cal team that was riddled with injuries - predominately on defense.  And Garbers is the best QB that gives Cal a chance to win.

However - as you point out - Cal's "O" isn't very competent.  So I stand by my statement that NDSU could have a #1 "D" rating, with the four offenses they faced in Nevada, Montana, Stanford and Cal.

Your comment about Cal's offense only supports my statement.

 

You've repeatedly trumpeted your SEC boyz here.  They're fair game.

Also, were you banned from your last SEC board?  Is that why you're here?  I can't imagine you're well liked anywhere.

[Quack 12]

18 minutes ago, HLB said:

So I stand by my statement that NDSU could have a #1 "D" rating, with the four offenses they faced in Nevada, Montana, Stanford and Cal.

Since NDSU has very similar defensive stats to Oregon's, and since you removed almighty Auburn from the equation, which combination of Butler, NDU, Delaware, UC Davis or Illinois State represents four opponents stronger than Oregon's schedule, sans War Eagle?

[azgreg]

nm

 

 

[Mano]

Well, rather than taking radio honk's word for it, I suppose I could look the results up.

Week 2

Cal 20 #14 Washington 19

#23 Stanford 20 USC 45

Week 4

#16 Oregon 21 Stanford 6

#10 Utah 23 USC 30

UCLA 67 #19 Wazzu 63

Colorado 34 #24 ASU 31

 

Week 5

ASU 24  #15 Cal 17

#19 Utah 38 Wazzu 13

Week 6

Cal 7  #13 Oregon 17

#15 Washington 13 Stanford 23

 

So, by my count unranked Pac teams have a 7-3  record vs. ranked Pac teams

 

 

[HLB]

9 hours ago, Quack 12 said:

Since NDSU has very similar defensive stats to Oregon's, and since you removed almighty Auburn from the equation, which combination of Butler, NDU, Delaware, UC Davis or Illinois State represents four opponents stronger than Oregon's schedule, sans War Eagle?

I removed Auburn from my posting because I was focusing on Oregon's wins.  In short, Oregon hasn't really beaten anyone of consequence, thus their defensive rating is skewed. 

If you want to add Auburn, who was playing a true freshman QB in his first ever CFB game, then go ahead.  Their offensive output was not high.

Overall, Oregon's #1"D" rating is highly subjective to the caliber of offenses they have faced.

[HLB]

9 hours ago, Orange said:

You've repeatedly trumpeted your SEC boyz here

Show me where I've repeatedly trumpeted SEC teams.  Specifically, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.  I've said on more than one occasion that these are terrible teams that will be fortunate to win 4 games.

9 hours ago, Orange said:

Also, were you banned from your last SEC board?  Is that why you're here?  I can't imagine you're well liked anywhere.

I live in SEC country.  I have SEC talk constantly on the radio; SEC Network (which I watch daily); in the newspapers; coffee shops; around town, etc.  I am saturated in SEC discussions.  So I don't need an SEC message board, nor do I even know if there is an SEC message board.  There's nothing there for me to hear about, since I hear about it daily from so many outlets.

I'm here because I want to be.  Why are you here?

And I am highly popular and well liked.  Unlike you. 

[HLB]

7 hours ago, Mano said:

Well, rather than taking radio honk's word for it, I suppose I could look the results up.

Week 2

Cal 20 #14 Washington 19

#23 Stanford 20 USC 45

Week 4

#16 Oregon 21 Stanford 6

#10 Utah 23 USC 30

UCLA 67 #19 Wazzu 63

Colorado 34 #24 ASU 31

 

Week 5

ASU 24  #15 Cal 17

#19 Utah 38 Wazzu 13

Week 6

Cal 7  #13 Oregon 17

#15 Washington 13 Stanford 23

 

So, by my count unranked Pac teams have a 7-3  record vs. ranked Pac teams

 

 

Current rankings mean nothing until the first Tuesday in November.  The rankings you posted are premature (such as #23 Stanford, who might not finish the season bowl eligible).  If you want to go off of rankings, the season end rankings are the tell-tell sign of which teams were truly good.

Here's my question:  How many OOC wins will the PAC12 have against teams that finish the season ranked in the Top-25?  I'm betting that the answer will be "zero".  Not to mention the multiple annual OOC losses to lower level CFB teams …. People across the country see this play out, every year, which is why no one gives the PAC12 any respect …. Sure - go ahead - win against each other.  But it means nothing if the PAC12 can't beat anyone of consequence outside the PAC12.

By year's end, the PAC12 will have three teams (if not just two) that finish in the Top25.  What will your count of unranked PAC12 teams over ranked PAC12 teams be at season's end?

This assessment of yours is as premature as a few weeks ago - four weeks into the season - when someone posted that the PAC12 had six teams ranked in the Top25, and declared that the PAC12 was strong.  That number is now down to four. 

[HLB]

11 hours ago, dtd said:

S&P adjusts for opponents' defense

So Oregon's defensive ranking is based on their opponents' defenses?

11 hours ago, dtd said:

It is a down and distance situational efficiency success rate measure.

Which means that when playing against poor offenses, their success rate measure would be high.  Which leads me back to my statement, that if NDSU played these same teams, with poor offenses, they would have a high S&P ranking, too.

 

11 hours ago, dtd said:

Still, you should educate yourself further before commenting

I'm educated enough to know that no matter what statistical measure you want to draw upon, Oregon hasn't faced strong offenses at any point this season.  That's a fact.  And given that fact, their #1 S&P "D" ranking is skewed, and doesn't mean anything.

[HLB]

13 hours ago, MussMan said:

Agreed. Oregon wouldn't be able to compete with the mighty SEC with powerhouses like Arkansas (lost to San Jose State), Tennessee (lost to Georgia State), Missouri (lost to Wyoming), and Mississippi (lost to Memphis).

And if you're keeping track, the Pac-12 has the best record of any P5 conference against other P5s so far this year. 3-0 against the  B1G as well.

https://topdan.com/college-football-conference-records/2019.html

Do we need to list the PAC12's OOC losses to Cincy, Hawaii (twice), SDSU and UCF?  There's a chance that Hawaii could be the PAC12 South Champion.

I said Oregon would finish with 4-5 losses at best.  You mention the 7 or 8 teams that they I have already admitted they would defeat.  How well would Oregon fair against the likes of BAMA, Auburn (as we've already seen), LSU, Georgia, Florida; or the B1G's Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin; or against teams such as Oklahoma, Texas and Clemson.

But go ahead and hang your hat on those PAC12 wins over PW5 OOC opponents that will not finish the season ranked, some of which won't finish the season with enough wins to be bowl eligible.  Ole Miss - probably won't win four games.  Nebraska, probably won't be bowl eligible.  Northwestern, currently 1-4 and might finish 6-6, thanks to a weak latter part of their schedule.  Michigan State will lose three of their next four games and will finish 7-5 at best.  Texas Tech, a 7-5 team at best …. Where are the quality OOC wins for the PAC12?

What will the PAC12's record be against teams that finish the season ranked in the Top25?  I can go ahead and tell you: "0-fer".  Sure the PAC12 can beat a down trodden Nebraska, a weak Ole Miss or Arkansas, a very average Northwestern, Michigan State or Texas Tech.  But how well do they do against the Oklahomas, Auburns and Notre Dames?  Not well.