Staples:Time for Big 12 to go after Pac 12 schools

[RogueDuck]

https://theathletic.com/1652568/2020/03/04/big-12-conference-expansion-pac-12-targets-use-oregon-washington-arizona-arizona-state-ucla/?source=shared-article

 

Pay site, sorry.  Basically he is saying the P12 is down, and the Big 12 should invite UCLA, SC, UO, UW, ASU and UA to join them.

[PAC MAN]

USC and UCLA would be able to have their own third tier rights too so that is a huge draw for them to the Big 12.

Oklahoma & Texas could follow the original Big 12 plan which was to dissolve the old Big 8 and SWC then start a brand new conference.

What I think could happen is the Pac-12 ditches the P12N but also keeps the equal revenue sharing of the first and second tier media rights deals.  I'm not so sure even a move to Las Vegas will even triple the P12N payments.  It'd be a good time to look back to 2011 where CU and Utah were on their own and had to have their own media rights deals separate from the other 10 schools.  If that means CU's third tier rights are on ESPN+, I'd be thrilled with that.

Given the recent tweets regarding Larry Scott's future, we should know by the summer and perhaps Pac-12 Media Days for Football where this conference could be headed for.  That could mean a sale of about half of the P12N to someone.

[Orange]

Are pigs flying past both your windows yet?

[PAC MAN]

It's the offseason...some bored CFB writer is going to stir things up.

[RogueDuck]

Really all the Pac 12 needs to do, if fire Scott.  Hire a top tier SEC or NFL guy, who knows WTF he is doing with college football, and go from there.  Sign with ESPN/ABC, get a lot more 12 and 330 time games.  If the Presidents allow Scott to continue to run the show, this conference will fall apart.  

[PAC MAN]

1 hour ago, RogueDuck said:

Really all the Pac 12 needs to do, if fire Scott.  Hire a top tier SEC or NFL guy, who knows WTF he is doing with college football, and go from there.  Sign with ESPN/ABC, get a lot more 12 and 330 time games.  If the Presidents allow Scott to continue to run the show, this conference will fall apart.  

I believe ESPN/ABC is more likely since the MWC announced their new media rights deal with Fox and CBS.  Unless the new SEC deal with ESPN is a smashing success which means more late starts for ESPN P12 games.  We'll see how this upcoming season shakes out.

[clpp01]

1 hour ago, RogueDuck said:

Really all the Pac 12 needs to do, if fire Scott.  Hire a top tier SEC or NFL guy, who knows WTF he is doing with college football, and go from there.  Sign with ESPN/ABC, get a lot more 12 and 330 time games.  If the Presidents allow Scott to continue to run the show, this conference will fall apart.  

I don't think the conference can resign with ABC/ESPN and get more 12 and 3:30 kick offs.  Between the entire ACC and likely SEC rights plus at worst secondary B1G rights and some combination of primary/secondary rights to the B12 they'll have an excess of broadcast rights to fill their early/mid day time slots without the Pac-12 even entering into the equation.

 

[Quack 12]

On 3/5/2020 at 8:21 AM, Jalapeno said:

What I think could happen is the Pac-12 ditches the P12N

In your dreams. I hate to tell you this, but both UW and UO are far bigger brands than CU.

[Scscsc89]

lol -- there may be some confusion between Pac12 Networks & Pac12 North here.

[Quack 12]

Ha! I got whooshed by Jalapeno!

[glduck]

You know what must happen now.

[HLB]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2020 at 3:45 PM, Jalapeno said:

I believe ESPN/ABC is more likely since the MWC announced their new media rights deal with Fox and CBS.  Unless the new SEC deal with ESPN is a smashing success which means more late starts for ESPN P12 games.  We'll see how this upcoming season shakes out.

What do you mean by that statement?  The current SEC/ESPN agreement runs through 2034.

[HLB]

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2020 at 2:35 PM, RogueDuck said:

Really all the Pac 12 needs to do, if fire Scott.  Hire a top tier SEC or NFL guy, who knows WTF he is doing with college football, and go from there.  Sign with ESPN/ABC, get a lot more 12 and 330 time games.  If the Presidents allow Scott to continue to run the show, this conference will fall apart.  

I can't grasp the fixation that PAC12 fans have with 12 and 330 kickoffs - as it pertains to the entire landscape of CFB.

First, 12 and 330 Pacific time kickoffs falls in the 3PM to 630 Eastern time zone games, and the 2PM to 530 Central time zone games.  This means the PAC12 would be fighting ACC, B1G, SEC and Big12 viewers, for viewership.  And in that scenario, viewers, outside of PAC12 fans, won't tune in to PAC12 games.

Furthermore, ACC and SEC teams particularly, play 2, 3 and sometimes 4 games from 630 Eastern time, or later.  I've been to SEC games that didn't kickoff until 8:30 or 9PM Central time.  I don't understand why PAC12 fans don't like playing games in the evenings, when other conferences do so with regularity.  And the fact is, most CFB fans East of Colorado "do" watch PAC12 games, that are played at night, because the PAC12 games (and MWC games) are the only games being played at that time, and they're the only games available to East coast viewers.

[clpp01]

13 minutes ago, HLB said:

What do you mean by that statement?  The current SEC/ESPN agreement runs through 2034.

ESPN's current deal with SEC does extend to 2034 but ESPN is missing the SEC's (and all of college media rights) most valuable asset which is their primary media rights which is currently held by CBS.  In 2024 those rights will be on the market and it is widely expected that ESPN will be walking away with them,  When that package goes to market the SEC will make more money off that 1 game a week and their championship game then the Pac-12 makes from everything total.

[Bruininthebay]

The change in the economy due to the corona virus is going to be significant.  States are going toned to reduce their budget and that will affect universities.  The nine AAU members of the Pac definitely will want to stick together and will have the revenue from their respective medical research and medical doctorate schools during this pandemic to maintain their overall universities.

It will now be MUCH more important to get the most revenue. ASU evolved due to the University of Phoenix populatizing online education nationally and then imploding because ASU is actually THE university in Phoenix.

Arizona State would likely do well in the Big 12 and it may be the case that their current student enrollment is distributed within a footprint that includes the Big 12 .

If USC wants to join as the 12th that would be great (but unlikely) but if not BYU is a solid back up and a good travel partner with ASU.  It really depends on Arizona State deciding to go a different way than the research focused AAU schools.

Washington State and Oregon State are already in the red so a strained economy is going to be tough for both schools budgets.  Personally I have wanted a ten game round robin schedule again so I've been advocating for a change but obviously I'm not happy that a tragic epidemic is impacting everyone.  Wyoming is getting hammered by the Saudi Russia oil war in addition and that could affect their university; New Mexico isn't funding their athletic program well either.

[PAC MAN]

2 hours ago, Bruininthebay said:

The change in the economy due to the corona virus is going to be significant.  States are going toned to reduce their budget and that will affect universities.  The nine AAU members of the Pac definitely will want to stick together and will have the revenue from their respective medical research and medical doctorate schools during this pandemic to maintain their overall universities.

It will now be MUCH more important to get the most revenue. ASU evolved due to the University of Phoenix populatizing online education nationally and then imploding because ASU is actually THE university in Phoenix.

Arizona State would likely do well in the Big 12 and it may be the case that their current student enrollment is distributed within a footprint that includes the Big 12 .

If USC wants to join as the 12th that would be great (but unlikely) but if not BYU is a solid back up and a good travel partner with ASU.  It really depends on Arizona State deciding to go a different way than the research focused AAU schools.

Washington State and Oregon State are already in the red so a strained economy is going to be tough for both schools budgets.  Personally I have wanted a ten game round robin schedule again so I've been advocating for a change but obviously I'm not happy that a tragic epidemic is impacting everyone.  Wyoming is getting hammered by the Saudi Russia oil war in addition and that could affect their university; New Mexico isn't funding their athletic program well either.

Totally agree that things are going to be different and will have the impact of a World War...maybe I'm going too far there but the impact shouldn't be underestimated.  You are right that Federal money could provide a huge boost to the nine AAU schools and that could lead to an unequal playing field within the conference.

ASU would certainly do well in the Big 12 for sure and it would be cool if they had BYU as a partner.  Those wild Sun Devil students against the stone cold sober BYU students.  Angels versus Devils.

I'm not so sure if USC could really go independent after two NFL teams moved into the LA market.  That might have a bigger impact on the future of the PAC than people are led to.

[Win5002]

18 hours ago, HLB said:

I can't grasp the fixation that PAC12 fans have with 12 and 330 kickoffs - as it pertains to the entire landscape of CFB.

First, 12 and 330 Pacific time kickoffs falls in the 3PM to 630 Eastern time zone games, and the 2PM to 530 Central time zone games.  This means the PAC12 would be fighting ACC, B1G, SEC and Big12 viewers, for viewership.  And in that scenario, viewers, outside of PAC12 fans, won't tune in to PAC12 games.

Furthermore, ACC and SEC teams particularly, play 2, 3 and sometimes 4 games from 630 Eastern time, or later.  I've been to SEC games that didn't kickoff until 8:30 or 9PM Central time.  I don't understand why PAC12 fans don't like playing games in the evenings, when other conferences do so with regularity.  And the fact is, most CFB fans East of Colorado "do" watch PAC12 games, that are played at night, because the PAC12 games (and MWC games) are the only games being played at that time, and they're the only games available to East coast viewers.

I agree with your post.  If the PAC is going to stand pat and not do some type of merger of its teams with the B12/B1G the only way to significantly increase its value is to be willing to place its BEST games not lower tiered games when other leagues are not playing their best games.  

The most obvious time slot is Saturday 7pm PST.  Again, some will say they already do but its usually the least appealing games.  Put the T1 product on at that time when there is no competition and see what the ratings are.   Sure some  people go to bed but for the people that stay up its the only quality game.  PAC fans may want to play in the prime time slot for the rest of the country but it just doesn't work ratings wise.  

The next option would be Thursday and/or Friday nights prime time.  Again I am talking about the T1 or better T2 games for CFB.  Thursday night competes with the NFL but there are a lot of diehard college only football fans that may tune in and of course Friday night has some fans going to high school games but if a tv viewer wants to watch CFB there wouldn't be much competition.

The PAC on its own doesn't have a rabid enough fan base to fill the prime time slots within its region and doesn't do well nationally when up against SEC/B1G/Big 12.  If the PAC teams(notice I say teams not league) really wants to have meaningful games in those time slots and be exposed to the rest of the nation during the prime time slots I think they have to look at merging with fan more rabid fan bases that are already in those time slots like the Big 12 and B1G.  Just by being in those leagues the fans in the other geographical regions will be more inclined to tune in because they would be watching another conference team as opposed to a game involving non-conference teams.       

   

  

 

[glduck]

22 hours ago, HLB said:

I can't grasp the fixation that PAC12 fans have with 12 and 330 kickoffs - as it pertains to the entire landscape of CFB.

First, 12 and 330 Pacific time kickoffs falls in the 3PM to 630 Eastern time zone games, and the 2PM to 530 Central time zone games.  This means the PAC12 would be fighting ACC, B1G, SEC and Big12 viewers, for viewership.  And in that scenario, viewers, outside of PAC12 fans, won't tune in to PAC12 games.

Furthermore, ACC and SEC teams particularly, play 2, 3 and sometimes 4 games from 630 Eastern time, or later.  I've been to SEC games that didn't kickoff until 8:30 or 9PM Central time.  I don't understand why PAC12 fans don't like playing games in the evenings, when other conferences do so with regularity.  And the fact is, most CFB fans East of Colorado "do" watch PAC12 games, that are played at night, because the PAC12 games (and MWC games) are the only games being played at that time, and they're the only games available to East coast viewers.

I don’t feel it’s a “fixation” so much as we understand it would be terrible business practice to cede 12:30 and 4/430/5 PM kickoffs.

There are more eyeballs to go around in those prime slots EVEN WITH sharing the spotlight with the other power conference than there are in the later kick-offs. HLB, I love that you stay up and watch our games, and I appreciate you and the other CFB diehards who do that, but you are the exception, not the rule. The majority of fans east of the Rockies absolutely do not stay up after midnight to watch us play. That has never been true.

Our most-watched conference games in 2019 (list excludes Apple Cup, which got a boost playing mostly unopposed the day after Thanksgiving):

1. Oregon/ASU 4:30 ESPN

2. Oregon/UW 12:30 ABC

3. Oregon/USC  5:00 FOX

4. Colorado/Utah 4:30 ABC

5. USC/Washington 12:30 ABC

That was a quick research job, so apologies if I’m a bit off on time slot/network — the point remains, however, that each game was a Saturday afternoon/early evening kickoff, competing against the other P5 conferences. None of our late evening kickoffs come close. The eyeballs simply aren’t there that late in the day. Never have been.

That’s not to say Pac-12 fans “hate” late evening games. It’s been a fact of life for us ever since television started regularly airing games, I think we’re all more than used to them. But simple math dictates why we continue to play throughout the day.

[Win5002]

1 hour ago, glduck said:

I don’t feel it’s a “fixation” so much as we understand it would be terrible business practice to cede 12:30 and 4/430/5 PM kickoffs.

There are more eyeballs to go around in those prime slots EVEN WITH sharing the spotlight with the other power conference than there are in the later kick-offs. HLB, I love that you stay up and watch our games, and I appreciate you and the other CFB diehards who do that, but you are the exception, not the rule. The majority of fans east of the Rockies absolutely do not stay up after midnight to watch us play. That has never been true.

Our most-watched conference games in 2019 (list excludes Apple Cup, which got a boost playing mostly unopposed the day after Thanksgiving):

1. Oregon/ASU 4:30 ESPN

2. Oregon/UW 12:30 ABC

3. Oregon/USC  5:00 FOX

4. Colorado/Utah 4:30 ABC

5. USC/Washington 12:30 ABC

That was a quick research job, so apologies if I’m a bit off on time slot/network — the point remains, however, that each game was a Saturday afternoon/early evening kickoff, competing against the other P5 conferences. None of our late evening kickoffs come close. The eyeballs simply aren’t there that late in the day. Never have been.

That’s not to say Pac-12 fans “hate” late evening games. It’s been a fact of life for us ever since television started regularly airing games, I think we’re all more than used to them. But simple math dictates why we continue to play throughout the day.

I dont believe the PAC has ever put one of their premium in that time slot to know.    

[HLB]

On ‎3‎/‎24‎/‎2020 at 6:06 PM, clpp01 said:

ESPN's current deal with SEC does extend to 2034 but ESPN is missing the SEC's (and all of college media rights) most valuable asset which is their primary media rights which is currently held by CBS.  In 2024 those rights will be on the market and it is widely expected that ESPN will be walking away with them,  When that package goes to market the SEC will make more money off that 1 game a week and their championship game then the Pac-12 makes from everything total.

I'm not sure how much more the SEC can get from ESPN, when CBS's offer of $300M per year (up from about $50M/year) was turned down by the SEC.  That being said, the SEC won't go to Fox or NBC.  That leaves CBS and ABC/ESPN (as you noted).  It will be interesting to see "how much" ESPN will pay for the 2:30PM CST game.