Picking Up The Pieces

[utenation]

On 11/24/2023 at 11:07 PM, win2bfree said:

At one point the B1G and PAC were truly peers.  It is sad that in about 10 years or so, very few people will have working memory of this.

Things got fucked up many times along the way for the B1G to be in a position to offer the LA schools a new future.  Many Duck fans would happily tell you that it started under a Husky and exacerbated under Larry Scott and completed imploded with Kliavkoff.

After that point, the 10 guys(and gals) were never going to save the conference.  There was no media partner that would have made it viable in the long run.

Considering the 4 corners and UW/OR are all going to be making about $30 million in media dollars for the next 5-6 years, ESPN’s offer of $30 million at the end of 2022 seems better than what we have now. 
 

I won’t argue there’s some deeper political agendas within the breakup but the money was there. 
 

The P12 was never going to be in an equal position with the B10. Just look at attendance and tv ratings. 

[win2bfree]

On 11/24/2023 at 10:14 PM, utenation said:

Considering the 4 corners and UW/OR are all going to be making about $30 million in media dollars for the next 5-6 years, ESPN’s offer of $30 million at the end of 2022 seems better than what we have now.

It may come across as pompous, but I think the sentiment was schools like UW, USC, UCLA are used to being peers with B1G schools.  "Settling" for $30 million while falling further and further behind was never going to fly.  It is why USC and UCLA were motivated to leave, and it is why Oregon was hesitant and UW was the one who pushed leaving.  Oregon (and Phil Knight's) goal is winning a championship, so their thought process was "what is the best path to that goal, a stronger B1G or a PAC we could dominate?"  UW's thought process was most likely, "we'll be damned if we get left behind". 

This is why staying the PAC was never going to work, nor was joining the Big 12, no matter how much Big 12 stans insisted that UW/UO was going to join.

[utenation]

On 11/24/2023 at 11:37 PM, win2bfree said:

It may come across as pompous, but I think the sentiment was schools like UW, USC, UCLA are used to being peers with B1G schools.  "Settling" for $30 million while falling further and further behind was never going to fly.  It is why USC and UCLA were motivated to leave, and it is why Oregon was hesitant and UW was the one who pushed leaving.  Oregon (and Phil Knight's) goal is winning a championship, so their thought process was "what is the best path to that goal, a stronger B1G or a PAC we could dominate?"  UW's thought process was most likely, "we'll be damned if we get left behind". 

This is why staying the PAC was never going to work, nor was joining the Big 12, no matter how much Big 12 stans insisted that UW/UO was going to join.

Personally I think UW/OR are worth more than 30 million. They put in the work. Same with USC.UCLA not so much.  Good basketball program but football drives the bus.  
 

My point is based on how it went down after the smoke cleared. Nobody other than the LA schools got what they wanted. But going back to eastcoastfan’s point.  All these new relationships that have very little in common are bad for college athletics. 
 

UW/OR will be sitting pretty on the next B10 TV contract along with all in conference revenue.  Larry Scott fucked a lot of things up. George was just a message boy for Presidents for a short career. 

[EastCoastFan]

What we're now in will be looked at as a six year pause, an odd time temporarily forced on everyone by the ACC having a rock-tight GOR.  When the SEC thought fast and out-maneuvered the B1G by grabbing Texas, it forced the sluggish B1G's hand, and they counter-punched by locking down LA.  But the next SEC/B1G juicy targets, particularly UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson, were off limits, which put things on hold.  The B1G's addition of UDub and the Ducks was a hard-fought internal battle, only won when B1G presidents were shown by Fox that getting the two of them on a half-price sale gave each of the old guard a bigger piece of the $$$ pie.

Where we are is that 2030 is what everyone is angling for ... or fearing.  The Ducks and Huskies see a full B1G share coming.  USC and UCLA see maybe some other western opponents joining the B1G.  Arizona and Colorado (along with Kansas) are hoping their academics and perhaps improved athletics will get them a B1G invite, but that's a real longshot.  Stanford and Cal are on really thin ice, particarly in the next realignment wave, with nearly half of the ACC's schools wanting to leave, the whole thing ready to implode.  And ASU and Utah are sitting out there on an island, not really first tier targets for the B1G and SEC, likely to end up in whatever assemblage of leftovers will be there when the B1G and SEC make their next expansion moves.  And the best hope for Oregon State and WSU is to be desirable when things implode, and to be picked up in whatever third power conference forms after the SEC and B1G expand, but that hope is a longshot at best.

It's a mess, and changing rapidly.  By 2030, there'll be player-unions, player strikes, the demise of traditional TV outlets, the rise of streaming, AI making the big decisions, and all with a bunch of slack-jawed college presidents who supposedly are in charge but haven't a clue on how to maneauver in tomorrow-world.

[glduck]

I think the ACC comes calling for OSU/WSU during the next round of realignment, and I don’t think it will take until 2036. Fla State and Clemson are already looking to leave, and once they do the B1G/SEC are going to pounce (same with Carolina, and probably Virginia). It’ll cost these teams money, but boosters exist, and we now live in a world where schools are willing to pay $70 million coaching buyouts. Fuck, Indiana just bought out their coach for $20 million. Breaking out of the ACC’s contract will obviously cost more, but if schools like Fla State think the future of their athletic departments depend on it — and I think they truly do believe that — it’ll happen.

Stan/Cal are well and truly fucked until then, when they’ll be slightly less fucked but still in an unenviable position. They’re going to be losing money and fighting for the ACC’s 7th place bowl in a good year. Basketball? Christ. But once the ACC gets raided, they’ll look to rebuild. I’m sure the Big 12 will be their top target, but I think the Big 12 is pretty cohesive. Not much motivation to jump ship. So the ACC looks to the AAC, and OSU/WSU to pair with Stan/Cal.

What I don’t know is if OSU/WSU jump. The Bay Area in the ACC is already a grotesquery, and I don’t know if joining their west coast outlet mall is going to be worth it. I know things look bleak right now — OSU with a coaching change, WSU just being lousy — but in a few years, driving the bus in the new-look Pac-10/12, I fully expect OSU/WSU to be fun, upper-tier mid-majors, like a Cincinnati or Houston before this most recent round of realignment. But the opportunity will be there, if they want to take it. Stan/Cal will push for it, but it may or may not be in OSU/WSU’s best interest.

[Trojan209]

2029-2030 is when the B1G, & ND deals expire. Big12 expires 2030-2031. SEC 2033-2034, and ACC 2035-2036. 
 

I’m predicting movement when the B1G/ND deals are up. The rest of the conferences aren’t going to sit on their hands and be undercut by a potential short term 5 year deal. They’ll all come back to renegotiate and let schools move around. I can’t imagine The Mouse House is happy not having any B1G content to show for the next 6 years especially during basketball season.

[KUGRDON]

On 11/26/2023 at 6:07 PM, Trojan209 said:

2029-2030 is when the B1G, & ND deals expire. Big12 expires 2030-2031. SEC 2033-2034, and ACC 2035-2036. 
 

I’m predicting movement when the B1G/ND deals are up. The rest of the conferences aren’t going to sit on their hands and be undercut by a potential short term 5 year deal. They’ll all come back to renegotiate and let schools move around. I can’t imagine The Mouse House is happy not having any B1G content to show for the next 6 years especially during basketball season.

Sorry, but the movement is when the ACC deal is up.  Thats where the hot targets are.   If the ACC didn’t have such a strong GOR the BIG probably would not have attacked the PAC-12 and certainly would not have taken Oregon and Washington.

[Trojan209]

On 11/26/2023 at 7:53 PM, KUGRDON said:

Sorry, but the movement is when the ACC deal is up.  Thats where the hot targets are.   If the ACC didn’t have such a strong GOR the BIG probably would not have attacked the PAC-12 and certainly would not have taken Oregon and Washington.

ESPN has a steal with the ACC. Terrible deal the ACC signed. But if it gets ESPN a seat at the table with the B1G, and strengthens their relationship with the SEC, why not agree to let teams leave sooner?
 

It either makes the ACC a de facto G4 conference in terms of future tv revenue, or the rest gets picked apart by the Big12 that seems to have a lot of solidarity now that OU/TX are leaving. ESPN has little incentive to let schools leave early, but if the price is right, who knows?

[azgreg]

 

[Mano]

I am feeling a bit melancholy today as the realization that the final Pac 12 football game has been played is hitting me. It was a seemingly unrealistic dream that my beloved Utes would join this conference when I started going to school at Utah in 1985. Seeing my team rise from being a bad WAC team to the first BCS buster to joining the PAC and eventually winning a couple of PAC conference championships has been one of my life's sweetest pleasures. I really loved this conference, and hope that sanity wins out in the future and that these schools are in a conference or division together again sometime in the future. While I am optimistic about Utah's future prospects, I am going to miss everything about this conference ( except the refs ).

 

 

 

[utenation]

On 12/2/2023 at 12:50 PM, Mano said:

I am feeling a bit melancholy today as the realization that the final Pac 12 football game has been played is hitting me. It was a seemingly unrealistic dream that my beloved Utes would join this conference when I started going to school at Utah in 1985. Seeing my team rise from being a bad WAC team to the first BCS buster to joining the PAC and eventually winning a couple of PAC conference championships has been one of my life's sweetest pleasures. I really loved this conference, and hope that sanity wins out in the future and that these schools are in a conference or division together again sometime in the future. While I am optimistic about Utah's future prospects, I am going to miss everything about this conference ( except the refs ).

 

I’ve felt this all year.  I’m not sure you’d find many Ute fans excited to go to the B12 when comparing to what we had and built in the P12. Including academic relationships and collaboration. 
 

Our leaders are saying all the correct things about going to the B12 but I bet behind closed doors, it’s a much different story. 

[Orange]

On 12/2/2023 at 11:50 AM, Mano said:

I am feeling a bit melancholy today as the realization that the final Pac 12 football game has been played is hitting me. It was a seemingly unrealistic dream that my beloved Utes would join this conference when I started going to school at Utah in 1985. Seeing my team rise from being a bad WAC team to the first BCS buster to joining the PAC and eventually winning a couple of PAC conference championships has been one of my life's sweetest pleasures. I really loved this conference, and hope that sanity wins out in the future and that these schools are in a conference or division together again sometime in the future. While I am optimistic about Utah's future prospects, I am going to miss everything about this conference ( except the refs ).

 

 

 

Well put, Mano.   

[Trojan209]

I wonder what other options they are looking at for baseball, it was interesting they chose to not go all in at once. 

[Mano]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/washington-state-oregon-state-reach-agreement-with-departing-pac-12-schools-to-end-litigation/

Looks like there may be an agreement,

[utenation]

On 12/21/2023 at 6:51 PM, Mano said:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/washington-state-oregon-state-reach-agreement-with-departing-pac-12-schools-to-end-litigation/

Looks like there may be an agreement,

I’m ok with this. Each side gave and took something. I don’t want Utah to be tied up in lawsuits for the next decade over this. Time to clear the air and move on. 

[KUGRDON]

It’s an agreement to agree.  Unenforceable.  Lots of work to be done.

[utenation]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:44 PM, KUGRDON said:

It’s an agreement to agree.  Unenforceable.  Lots of work to be done.

If everyone sticks to this agreement, I’m not seeing a bunch of work to do. It seems pretty straightforward to me. 
 

The 10 were never going to be screwed out of what was owed.  We take a smaller cut to cover expenses with no further liability. 
 

Doesn’t seem complicated to me. 

[KUGRDON]

The separate statement issued by WSU and OSU said that the departed 10 would forfeit a part of this year‘s distribution. No mention of that in the other statement.  doesn’t look like anybody is willing to set out what the distributions will be.  That’s a big possible tripping point.

[glduck]

Possible, but I imagine everybody has a fairly good idea what that amount will be and it’ll be disclosed sooner rather than later. This good lookin’ guy called it last weekend! 

 

[utenation]

On 12/21/2023 at 10:00 PM, KUGRDON said:

The separate statement issued by WSU and OSU said that the departed 10 would forfeit a part of this year‘s distribution. No mention of that in the other statement.  doesn’t look like anybody is willing to set out what the distributions will be.  That’s a big possible tripping point.

I’ve read a few articles that have all said the same thing.